First-Half Review | Reds Starting Pitchers

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A few months ago, we published a roster analysis of Reds pitchers leading into spring training. At the time, there were several question marks:

• How would Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft develop in their second MLB seasons?
• With Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft locked into the rotation, who would take the fourth and fifth spots? Luis Cessa, Luke Weaver, Brandon Williamson, Connor Overton, Levi Stoudt, Justin Dunn, Ben Lively, and Kevin Herget were all in the mix at the time. Chase Anderson later entered the competition as a late signing.

As the season has unfolded, injuries have created more questions than answers for the starting rotation, which ranks in the bottom five in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Meanwhile, the bullpen has held up surprisingly well. The Reds have cycled through a ton of pitchers to get to this point. The team has already used 33 pitchers this season, the third-most in franchise history and only five away from the club record (38) set in 2022.

With an eventful first half in the books, we’re looking back at what we’ve seen so far in the 2023 season. Yesterday, we reviewed the Reds’ exciting young group of position players. Today, we’ll analyze the Reds’ starting pitchers.

The Player Charts

Each player’s chart below shows the following statistics:

• (IP) innings pitched
• (pERA/pFIP) preseason projected ERA/FIP by FanGraphs
• (ERA/FIP) current ERA/FIP
• (K%/BB%) current K%/BB%

The players discussed will include starting pitchers on the 40-man roster who’ve pitched at least 30 MLB innings this season.

Hunter Greene

All eyes were on Hunter Greene entering his sophomore campaign. Could he take the next step toward becoming the Reds’ ace after a dominant finish to his rookie season? The Reds certainly believe he could eventually fulfill that potential, signing him to a six-year extension shortly after the season began.

Unfortunately, Greene has been out for the last month with right hip pain. When healthy, though, he has shown flashes of dominance. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts four times this season; other Reds pitchers have done it a combined three times. Although he isn’t quite putting up top-end starter numbers (yet), he has put together a solid year.

Greene’s strikeout rate has ticked up from last year as he’s continued to pepper the upper part of the strike zone with 100-mph heat, a strategy that brought him success late last year. His slider has been just as unhittable as it was last year. Greene has also seen a small uptick in walks, putting him in the 30th percentile. He’s avoided the blow-up games that plagued him in the first half of his rookie season, however, largely because he’s cut down on home runs. Greene has had some rotten BABIP luck (.339) that contributed to some shaky starts early in the year.

Noteworthy: Greene still throws harder than any starting pitcher aside from Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller. His slider has an incredible 40.9% whiff rate, fourth among all starters with at least 200 swings against sliders this season. His Stuff+ is third among all big-league starting pitchers, with his fastball and slider both ranking in the top seven individually. He ranks in the 86th percentile in whiff rate and the 91st percentile in strikeout rate. Greene is doing all of this at 23 years old. There are only a handful of younger pitchers than him in the league. He’s certainly still working on becoming a consistent player, but it’s important to make note of how good he’s been at his age.

Concerns: Getting healthy is the top concern for Greene, who hasn’t pitched since June 17 and won’t be back before August. When he gets back on the mound, he’ll need to cut down on the free passes. He’s also lost a bit of rise on his fastball (while gaining some horizontal movement), leading to a small decrease in swings and misses. A third pitch is still a work in progress for Greene. He’s thrown a changeup only 5.4% of the time in 2023, the exact same rate he did in 2022. Interestingly, though, left-handers haven’t given him much problem, which is probably why Greene still isn’t throwing the changeup much. He’s had reverse splits in both years of his big-league career, largely because righties have better handled his fastball. It tails away from left-handers but toward right-handers. Mixing in more sliders could help — Greene’s slider usage against right-handers has dropped from 51.9% in 2022 to 44.2% in 2023.

Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo was also hoping for a second-year jump after an impressive first season that saw him garner NL Rookie of the Year votes. In his first three starts, it certainly looked like Lodolo was in store for big things in 2023. The 25-year-old struck out 27 batters and allowed only four runs in 17 innings to begin the year. His second start in Philadelphia was dominant, as he struck out 12 and allowed only three hits in seven shutout innings.

But his season took a turn for the worst, as he allowed 20 earned runs and 32 hits, including nine home runs, over his last 17.1 innings and four starts. At the time, we wrote about what had gone south for Lodolo: his command and velocity had waned. But the true cause was revealed shortly thereafter. On May 14, he was placed on the injured list with what the Reds called “left calf tendinosis” that had been bothering him since spring training. We wrote at the time that Lodolo’s absence could be lengthy. It was then discovered that he also had a stress reaction in his tibia and he’d be out indefinitely. On June 28, he got some good news: an MRI showed his left leg was healing well and he headed out to Goodyear to begin rehabbing, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon.

Noteworthy: When healthy, Lodolo looks the part of a front-end starting pitcher in the Reds’ rotation. He strikes out batters at a high clip, pitching from a unusual arm angle that baffles hitters, especially lefties. He gets incredible horizontal movement on all four of his pitches, and his unique curveball is a lethal weapon when he commands it.

Concerns: Lodolo has had some trouble staying healthy since he was drafted seventh overall out of TCU in 2019. After COVID wiped out the 2020 minor-league season, the left-hander missed time in 2021 with recurring blisters on his pitching hand and shoulder fatigue. He missed time in 2022 with a lower back strain. Now, he’s out with a calf/tibia issue. He’s been effective when not pitching through injury, but he’s thrown just over 200 innings as a pro.

Graham Ashcraft

Ashcraft came into the season hoping to strike out more batters. That hasn’t happened. While two-thirds of Ashcraft’s strikeouts have come on his slider, he’s still not missing many bats overall. He ranks in the 11th percentile in strikeout rate and the 26th percentile in whiff rate. Last year, Ashcraft worked around a lack of strikeouts by not walking many hitters (6.5 BB%) and generating a ton of groundballs (54.5 GB%). Both numbers have headed in the wrong direction this year. His walk rate has spiked to 9.4% (34th percentile), and his groundball rate — while still above average — has fallen to 48.1%.

Like Lodolo, Ashcraft started out the season hot. He allowed eight runs through his first six starts, although there were some warning signs in his low BABIP and strikeout rate, as well as a walk rate in the double digits. Ashcraft got knocked around in his next start against the White Sox and was stuck in a rut for his next eight outings (12.82 ERA, 7.74 FIP, 5.34 xFIP) as he battled command problems. His ground-ball rate plummeted, and he gave up a stunning 11 home runs in those 33 innings — as many as he allowed in all of 2022 across all levels.

The 25-year-old has gotten back on track in his last two starts, allowing just two runs over 12.2 innings. The strikeout totals have remained low, but he’s returned to being a groundball machine over those two outings (55.6 GB%).

Noteworthy: There’s no denying Ashcraft has the stuff to get MLB hitters out. He ranks third among starting pitchers in Stuff+ behind only Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider. His revamped slider has sharp, late break, generating 9.6 inches of horizontal movement above average — best among all MLB pitchers. It also has a strong 35.4% whiff rate.

Concerns: The big one (strikeouts) was covered above. Another one of Ashcraft’s strengths in 2022 was preventing hard contact. He hasn’t done that this year, either, ranking in the 51st percentile in average exit velocity and 31st in hard-hit rate. Right now, Ashcraft lacks a dependable third pitch to give batters a different look, as he’s lost the feel for his sinker and thrown it less. His cutter and slider move in similar directions, which can make them easier for hitters to pick up when he’s not commanding or tunneling them well.

Luke Weaver

The Reds did little to address their starting pitching depth during the offseason. Their lone major-league signing was 29-year-old Luke Weaver, who hadn’t pitched more than 65 innings in a season since 2018. There was at least a glimmer of hope he had something left in the tank. But aside from a decent stretch of starts in May, Weaver has gotten hit hard.

Among the 98 pitchers with at least 70 innings, here are his ranks:

• ERA: 98th
• FIP: 95th
• xFIP: 87th
• xERA: 91st
• SIERA: 85th
• K%: 85th
• HR/9: 97th
• Chase%: 94th
• SwStr%: 89th

Despite this, the Reds have improbably won in Weaver’s last eight starts. He has an 8.66 ERA in those outings. We normally don’t talk wins and losses as a pitching stat at RC+, but consider this: Weaver got the win in only one of those outings — seven of those victories required the Reds to come from behind. The offense has bizarrely come alive with Weaver on the bump, but the Reds need to find an upgrade.

Noteworthy: Weaver’s walk rate is respectable, ranking in the 69th percentile. That’s about it.

Concerns: There are too many to list, but let’s cover a few. Beyond his changeup, which is inconsistent, he doesn’t have any quality pitches. His fastball — which he throws more than anything else (44.6% usage) — is getting obliterated, ranking as the fourth-worst individual pitch in the game by Statcast’s run value metric. His strikeout rate is a career-worst 17.3%. He frequently puts the Reds behind early in games (which is maybe a good thing for this team), owning a higher first-inning ERA than any pitcher with at least 10 starts this season.

Andrew Abbott

Andrew Abbott wasn’t mentioned in the spring training preview because he wasn’t a serious contender in the competition for the fourth and fifth rotation spots. A few short months later, he’s the best pitcher in the Reds rotation. That’s partly because Greene and Lodolo are hurt, and Ashcraft has scuffled. But it also speaks to Abbott’s rapid development and ascension to the big leagues.

The Reds drafted Abbott just two years ago, taking him with their second-round pick in 2021 out of the University of Virginia. He began the 2022 season in High-A Dayton and quickly proved himself too advanced for the level, getting promoted to Double-A after five appearances. Abbott was tested in Double-A, where he stayed the rest of the season, but he closed out the year in dominant fashion by not allowing a run over his last three starts. He began 2023 back in Chattanooga and picked up where he left off, striking out a ridiculous 36 hitters in 15.2 innings. The Reds promoted Abbott to Triple-A after three starts, and he pitched seven times for the Bats before he was called to the big leagues.

Abbott didn’t allow a run in his first three MLB starts, although he allowed a lot of flyballs, a few too many walks, and didn’t have many strikeouts. In his fourth start, Abbott gave up three solo home runs, but he fanned a career-best 10 batters and walked none — encouraging signs. The 24-year-old followed that up with back-to-back impressive starts against the talented Orioles and Padres offenses, allowing one run in each outing and striking out 20 total batters (12 against San Diego). Due for some regression — he wasn’t going to maintain a .190 BABIP or 7.8% HR/FB forever — the Brewers knocked Abbott around for six runs in 4.1 innings in his last start.

The good news is Abbott has started to figure out how to miss bats at the big-league level. His strikeout rate is in the 82nd percentile. He registered 25 whiffs against the Padres on July 2, tied for the 10th-most in a start by any pitcher this season and second-most by a left-hander. His changeup has been lethal against right-handed hitters (42.6% whiff rate), and his sweeper has been solid against lefties (37.9% whiff rate).

Noteworthy: When Abbott throws his fastball up in the zone, it’s effective despite subpar velocity because he has a better-than-average extension, spin efficiency, and vertical approach angle (i.e., his fastball stays “flat” and hitters swing under it). The middle of the strike zone varies by batter, but it’s roughly 2.5 feet off the ground on average. On fastballs thrown above 2.5 feet, Abbott has a 27.4% whiff rate — well above average for a fastball. When he throws it at least 3 feet off the ground, his whiff rate jumps to an elite 33.8%. Abbott is allowing a lot of flyballs, but many of those are popups because batters tend to swing underneath his pitches, particularly his fastball. His 9.6% popup rate is above average (7.1%). While Statcast doesn’t specifically define how it measures getting “under” a ball, Abbott has gotten this type of contact a whopping 42.3% of the time. That’s way above league average (24.6%). The league is batting .068 with a .123 slugging percentage on such batted balls.

Concerns: Abbott’s fastball is extremely hittable when he doesn’t locate it up in the zone, and he uses it half the time. When he throws the fastball at 2.5 feet and below, his whiff rate plummets to 6.1%. This will be something to monitor. Also, Abbott currently has a 19.6% groundball rate at the big league level and a whopping 60.8% flyball rate. This should even out — he had roughly average groundball rates in the minor leagues — but he’s been fortunate to only allow five home runs so far.

Brandon Williamson

Expectations were tempered for Brandon Williamson coming into the season. Although he was in the mix for a rotation spot during spring training, he took a rather large step back at the minor-league level in 2022. The prized prospect in the return from the Mariners for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, Williamson saw a steep drop-off in strikeouts and velocity along with an increase in walks. Not a good combination. A poor showing in spring training saw him get demoted back to Triple-A.

The 25-year-old didn’t pitch well in Louisville (6.62 ERA, 6.61 FIP, 6.37 xFIP in 34 innings), but he was called up out of necessity in May to make his MLB debut. It just so happened to come in the least pitcher-friendly park in baseball, Coors Field. To the surprise of most, Williamson threw 5.2 innings of one-run, two-hit baseball and has stuck in the Reds’ rotation since then.

The Reds descended from Denver and Williamson came back to earth, too, as the numbers below show. Williamson ranks in the bottom third of the league on basically every metric you’ll see on his Baseball Savant profile — strikeout rate, walk rate, whiff rate, chase rate, hard-hit rate, etc. It’d be easy to dismiss him altogether based on that, at least for now. But if you’ve been monitoring the data, you’ll notice Williamson has been making adjustments that provide some hope.

Most notably, Williamson has rediscovered some velocity. In the Mariners organization, Williamson’s fastball sat at 92-94 mph and could reach 96. Last year, it was sitting around 90-92 mph. His four-seamer averaged 91.4 mph in eight Triple-A starts and was exactly the same through three big-league starts. Since then, his velocity has steadily been rising. Over his last seven starts, his fastball has averaged 92.7 mph. He’s sat at 93.2 mph over his last four starts, and he threw his three fastest pitches of the season in his last outing against the Nationals, topping out at 96.0 mph. It’s been hard to get a good read on how this development will play out for Williamson, as two of his last three starts have been disrupted by rain. But this is certainly something to monitor.

Noteworthy: Williamson has cut down his walks of late, carrying a 7.3% walk rate over his last five outings. That includes a four-walk outing against the Orioles, during which he had to pitch through a downpour. Among Williamson’s secondary pitches, the changeup stands out. It has a massive 46.3% whiff rate this season. Among starting pitchers who’ve gotten at least 50 swings on changeups, only three have a higher whiff rate: Shane McClanahan, Blake Snell, and Spencer Strider. That’s some mighty impressive company.

Concern: This hasn’t changed much since the beginning of the season. Williamson still has to prove the velocity increase will stick, as well as throw strikes consistently and command the ball within the strike zone to avoid hard contact. A few more strikeouts wouldn’t hurt, either. He excelled at missing bats in 2021 in the Seattle organization (37.4 K%), but hasn’t replicated that success since.

Ben Lively

Ben Lively’s career has come full circle with the Reds. He was drafted by the team back in 2013, but he was traded to the Phillies before the 2015 season in exchange for outfielder Marlon Byrd. Lively eventually made his MLB debut for Philadelphia in 2017, making 20 appearances over the next two seasons. He bounced between the Royals and Diamondbacks organizations at the end of 2018 and first few months of 2019 before deciding to head overseas and pitch in the KBO League. The Reds signed him to a minor-league deal before the 2022 season. Given the glut of injuries and trades in the big leagues, Lively would’ve appeared for the team last year had he not been injured himself. He re-signed for the 2023 season and was on the periphery of the rotation competition in spring.

It didn’t take long for the Reds to need him this year. Lively was promoted on May 9 and made a pair of successful long relief appearances before joining the rotation to make his first MLB start since 2018. While the 31-year-old hasn’t blown hitters away by any means, he’s more than held his own and provided some valuable innings to a team that desperately needs them. Put it this way: did you ever think you’d be relieved to see Ben Lively start the final game of the first half instead of Michael Mariot?

Noteworthy: A lot of the value Lively provides is throwing strikes. His walk rate ranks in the 69th percentile, and he’s gotten a surprising amount of strikeouts (47th percentile) given his subpar showing in Triple-A this season (15.2 K%). Fun-fact: Lively gets excellent extension (93rd percentile), which helps give his low-velocity fastball (14th percentile) some extra life. The league average whiff rate for sinkers is 14.5%, and Lively’s sits at 20.5%. Among 87 starting pitchers with at least 50 swings against their sinkers, Lively ranks fifth in whiff rate. He also has a solid 37.3% whiff rate on his slider.

Concern: Lively is a flyball pitcher, which makes him susceptible to home runs. He’s giving up nearly two dingers per nine innings. Batters have teed off against his four-seam fastball (.362 BA, .652 SLG, .455 wOBA).

Fare Thee Well

Five other pitchers have made starts for the Reds this season. Two are no longer in the picture, and one is a reliever (Derek Law).

Luis Cessa and Connor Overton began the year as team’s #4 and #5 starters. Unsurprisingly, it didn’t go well.

Cessa was designated for assignment on May 9 after posting a 9.00 ERA, 5.43 FIP, and 5.59 xFIP in 26 innings. It’s unclear whether he requested his release because he wanted to continue starting or the team felt he pitched poorly enough that they didn’t want him in the bullpen. Either way, he was scooped up on a minor-league deal by the Rockies and released after his struggles continued in Triple-A. The Nationals signed him to a minor-league contract last week.

Overton made the rotation despite a disastrous spring, which carried into his three regular-season starts (11.45 ERA, 7.10 FIP, 5.88 xFIP). The 29-year-old was placed on the injured list on April 15 and later underwent Tommy John surgery.

See You Later?

Levi Stoudt, acquired as part of the Luis Castillo trade, made his MLB debut in April. The 24-year-old has received two spot starts for the Reds, as well as a long-relief appearance. They haven’t been overly impressive, as he’s coughed up 11 runs and seven walks in 10 innings. His numbers in Triple-A this season are similarly ugly (5.23 ERA, 6.78 FIP, 7.18 xFIP) as he’s struggled to throw strikes or miss bats.

Brett Kennedy started for the Reds on July 4th in Washington, D.C. He was signed out of an independent league in May to give the Reds starting pitching depth at Triple-A. Injuries gave him the opportunity for his first MLB appearance since 2018. He was given an early five-run lead and made it stand up, allowing four runs in five innings. Kennedy was optioned to Louisville, and it’s very possible we’ll see him again this season as the Reds’ pitching depth continues to be tested.

Check out our other first-half reviews:

• Position Players
• Bullpen

Featured photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire