Preview | Milwaukee Brewers

by — July 7, 2023 in Opponent Previews

The first-place Reds (49-39) travel to Milwaukee (47-41) with a two-game lead over the second-place Brewers. The three-game series concludes on Sunday leading into the All-Star Game break.

  • Friday (8:10 pm)
  • Saturday (4:10 pm) 
  • Sunday (2:10 pm)

The two teams played a four-game series in Cincinnati in early June. You remember the “Before Elly” series. A bunch of us pounded the internet table, pleading with the Reds front office to call up Elly De La Cruz to face the then-first-place Brewers. To no one’s surprise, the front office ignored us. Milwaukee won three of four. The Reds promoted De La Cruz as the Brewers were leaving town. The 21-year-old started the next day against the Dodgers and did this. The Reds are 22-6 since then, while the Brewers are 14-13.

In various power rankings (FanGraphs, ESPN, The Athletic, CBS), the Brewers rank between 14-18, while the Reds are 10-19.

Like the Reds, the Brewers will be represented at the All-Star Game by one player, the team’s closer. In Milwaukee’s case, that’s Devin Williams.

Position Players

The Brewers rank 27th in team wRC+ of 86, while the Reds have a wRC+ of 100, right in the middle. If you look at the last 30 days, the Reds shoot up to the third-best offense in MLB at wRC+ of 121 while the Brewers are still mired in the bottom five teams. 

You look up and down those lineups and there’s no comparison. Two Brewers batters have been above average. Eight of the nine Reds batters have been above.

Our old friend Jesse Winker has been the Brewers’ DH but only against right-handed pitching.

Starting Pitcher Matchups

Brandon Woodruff has been on the IL with a shoulder injury since April 8. He’s been one of the best starting pitchers in MLB since 2018. The Brewers are hoping for a late-July, early-August return for the 30-year-old righty. 

Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award two years ago. Last year, he led the NL in strikeouts with 243. He hasn’t been the same pitcher so far in 2023. His strikeout rates has dropped from 36% in 2021 to 30.5% in 2022 and down to 23% in 2023. Burnes’ walk-rate is also up a couple points. He throws his cutter more than 53% of the time and it’s been hit harder this year, although overall he’s still suppressing hard contact. His second pitches are a curve and changeup. Should be a great matchup with Andrew Abbott, who shut out the Brewers over six innings in his debut. As we’ve analyzed here, Abbott has gotten better and better over his recent starts.

The Reds owe much to Colin Rea. He was the pitcher who the Padres had traded to the Marlins in 2016 but was discovered to have a bum elbow. That prevented Miami from trading Luis Castillo to San Diego. That allowed the Marlins six months later to trade Castillo to the Reds. Back to Rea. He spent almost all of 2021 and all of 2022 pitching in Japan. Rea has been serviceable but below average for Milwaukee. He gave up three runs in five innings earlier this year in a game against the Reds. Rea throws six different pitches that top out at a 93-mph fastball. Luke Weaver didn’t face the Brewers in June but did pitch against them a couple of time when he was with the Cardinals. Even matchup.

Both teams list TBD for Sunday’s starter. It’s been reported the Reds will use Ben Lively at some point, maybe after Derek Law opens. Milwaukee’s options include Julio Teheran and Wade Miley. It would be Teheran’s turn, but the Brewers used a six-man rotation so Miley could do it. It won’t be Freddy Peralta who pitched yesterday or Adrian Houser who went the day before.

Forecast

It’s a big series for July, but more so for media narratives. The All-Star break provide a few days to over interpret the results and infer imaginary momentum. The two teams play six more games right after the All-Star break and that’s it for the rest of the 2023 regular season. The real importance comes from looking at the NL Central race and realizing that — the way things stand right now — the Brewers are the only team in the division with the talent to challenge the Reds. In that sense, every game is a small increment toward the championship and postseason.

Photo: Brewers Facebook

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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