by 
“This team has worked hard to put us in the situation where these games are important,” said Reds manager David Bell about the crucial three-game series with the Brewers that begins tonight in Milwaukee.
Indeed, the Reds (55-46) and Brewers (55-45) have achieved comfortable separation from the rest of the NL Central. In what appears to have become a two-team contest, the Brewers hold a slim half-game lead over the Reds for first place in the division. Raising the stakes further, these three games will be the last time the two foes face off in the 2023 regular season.
Yet, in case you haven’t kept up with current events, the head-to-head matchup this season hasn’t gone so well for the good guys. Milwaukee has dominated the first ten games, winning eight. By Wednesday night, Bell’s team will do its best to turn that around.
- Monday (8:10 pm)
- Tuesday (8:10 pm)
- Wednesday (2:10 pm)
The Brewers have reached the postseason four of the past five seasons. They finished second in the division last year, missing the final Wild Card slot by one game. The Brewers are 6-3 since the All-Star break including a three-game sweep of the Reds in GABP.
For the Reds, this is the first stop of a three-city, ten-game road trip that takes them next to Los Angeles to do battle with the first-place Dodgers, and then return to the Midwest, to the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, for four with the Cubbies.
Position Players
It’s safe to say the Brewers’ 12-5 record in July has not been due to their offense, which still ranked 27th (88 wRC+). Manager Craig Counsell’s team averaged just 3.5 runs in the six games against the Reds earlier this month. Here is Counsell’s lineup:
Their bench includes two right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. Winker, Frelick and Turang platoon.
The Reds will see rookie Sal Frelick (FREE-lik) for the first time. The 24-year-old Boston native debuted Saturday night against Atlanta. He was the Brewers first-round pick in 2021 (15th overall) out of Boston College. Frelick was chosen two picks ahead of where the Reds selected Matt McLain. He went 3-3 in his debut with three RBI. Yesterday, Frelick followed that performance with a single and walk. Counsell had the young right fielder batting cleanup. Frelick also made two terrific catches (one, two) in right field his debut night.
Christian Yelich has been 2018-19 NL MVP Christian Yelich since May 1 (150 wRC+). There does appear to be a partial antidote, as the 31-year-old left fielder does the vast majority of his damage against right-handed pitchers. Cue Andrew Abbott and Alex Young.
In his two-and-a-half years playing for Brewers, shortstop Willy Adames has slugged his way into the pantheon of Reds killers. In 178 plate appearances against the Reds, he’s hit .281/.354/.594 with a 154 wRC+ and 13 homers.
Starting Pitcher Matchups
Overall, the Brewers rotation ranks in the top ten while the Reds starters still languish in the bottom five. Milwaukee is waiting for the return of starter Brandon Woodruff, who has been out with a shoulder injury since April. Woodruff made his first rehab start last week against the Dayton Dragons and is expected back in mid-August if all goes well. The 30-year-old has been a top-ten MLB starter the since 2020. A healthy Woodruff will be a huge boost to the Brewers down the stretch.
The Reds got to Colin Rea for five runs in 4.2 innings when the two teams met on July 8 although Rea did strike out seven. He throws six pitches that top out at a 93-mph fastball. If the good Graham Ashcraft shows up, the Reds should have an edge in starters tonight.
The marquee matchup of the series. Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award two years ago. Last year, he led the NL in strikeouts with 243. Burnes had a slow start to the 2023 season but has resumed his CY form in July. He backed up a dominant recent start against the Reds with an 8-inning shutout of the Phillies, recording 10 strikeouts and one walk. Burnes throws his cutter more than half the time and secondary pitches are a curve and changeup. This will be Abbott’s fourth start against the Brewers. The last time the rookie faced them in Milwaukee (7/7), he gave up six earned runs in 4.1 innings.
Freddy Peralta shut the Reds out over six innings on Saturday, July 15, allowing just one hit. The Brewers won that game 3-0. Since then, Atlanta rocked Peralta for six runs, so maybe that’ll bring his confidence back to earth. He hasn’t had a great season by his own standards, so maybe the recent Reds game was an anomaly. Should be a decent matchup with Lively going for the Reds.
Bullpen
The Brewers have that kind of bullpen that shortens the game from nine to six innings. If you’re behind going into the 7th, forget about it. At least that how it’s gone lately. For the four recent Brewers wins in a row, starting with the Wade Miley game, Brewers relievers covered 12 innings, struck out 19, walked 2 and didn’t allow a run. Elvis Peguero, Joel Payamps and Devin Williams handled the final innings three times.
As Butch and Sundance wanted to know: Who are those guys?
Devin Williams is one of the best closers in baseball. He inherited the role at the trade deadline last year when the Brewers traded Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres. Williams has converted 40 of 44 save attempts. He throws two pitches, a fastball and an “air-bending” changeup that ranks among the top pitches in MLB. Think Luis Castillo out of the bullpen. Williams was AL Rookie of the Year in 2020 and has been an All-Star selection the past two seasons. The Brewers picked Williams in the second round of the 2013 draft.
In a spin-off from the Hader trade, the Brewers acquired Joel Payamps from the Oakland A’s last offseason. Milwaukee sent Estuary Ruiz, who they had received in the Padres deal, to Oakland and Payamps was one of the players in the return. A career minor leaguer, the 29-year-old hadn’t pitched anything like this in his previous stops across five organizations. Payamps is a slider-fastball guy. Both come with heavy swing and miss.
Elvis Peguero also arrived in Milwaukee last offseason via trade with the Los Angeles Angels. Peguero was one of three pitchers the Brewers got in return for OF Hunter Renfroe. Again, Peguero had struggled in brief prior stints in the majors but had looked better in minor league games for a couple years in the Yankees system. Elvis throws two pitches, slider and sinker. He’s a ground ball specialist.
Fireballer Abner Uribe was an international signing from the Dominican Republic in 2018. Trevor Megill came from the Twins in a trade this April for a player to be named later. Bryce Wilson was acquired by trade from Pittsburgh in the offseason.
Conclusion
From the standpoint of the Reds, it’s impossible to draw up three more important games. Both teams come into the series hot. The Reds have a clear edge on offense. The Brewers have a stronger, deeper bullpen. Recent history is on Milwaukee’s side with eight wins in ten games including four in a row. Familiarity runs deep. Should be a great matchup.
Photos: Brewers Facebook and Twitter
