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The Reds (50-44) host the San Francisco Giants for a four-game series beginning tonight. The Giants are 52-41 and in second place in the NL West behind the Dodgers. They come into Cincinnati having won their last five games, including a three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati is the second stop in a four-city, 11-game road trip for the Giants. Manager Gabe Kapler is in his fourth season as their skipper. The Reds will visit San Francisco for a three-game series at the end of August.
- Monday (7:10 pm)
- Tuesday (7:10 pm)
- Wednesday (7:10 pm)
- Thursday (12:35 pm)
In 2022, the Giants finished 81-81, 30 games behind the Dodgers, a significant falloff from their 107 wins in 2021.
Head-to-Head: The Reds took the season series with the Giants last year 4-2. In 2021, the outcome was reversed, with San Francisco claiming a lopsided 6-1 advantage. In the stupid 2012 NLDS that almost no Reds fans remember, Dusty Baker’s team blew a 2-0 series lead, dropping three home games to the Giants. San Francisco went on that season to win the second of their three World Series titles last decade.
2023 Power Rankings: The four sites we compile (ESPN, CBS, FanGraphs, The Athletic) have divergent ratings for the Giants, ranging from 7th (Athletic) to 15th (CBS). The average is 10th. The Reds average 14th.
Position Players
The Giants offense rates middle-of-the-pack with the 15th best run production (wRC+) in the league. Their batting average, power and walk-rates are all middling. While they don’t steal many bases (next to last with only 44), they do excel in base running overall, ranking 7th.
The Giants platoon – a lot. Kapler is a standard-issue, modern manager similar to David Bell. His lineup rotates four spots based on the starting pitcher. This is their projected starting lineup against right-handed pitchers. Note the presence of seven (!) lefties plus one switch-hitter.
The right-handed half of the platoon is relevant since the Reds plan to throw two lefties (Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott) in the series. The four players who join lineup on those days are Wilmer Flores (116/.310), Casey Schmitt (63/.279), Luis Matos (94/.344) and Austin Slater (150/.351).
Slater leads off. Matos (21) and Schmitt (24) are good rookies. Matos is the #1 prospect in their system per FanGraphs and a consensus top-100 guy.
The name Blake Sabol may ring familiar. He was a Cincinnati Red for five minutes. Sabol is a young, left-handed catcher who also plays a solid outfield. As you can see, he’s been a better-than-average hitter. The Reds took him in the Rule 5 draft this offseason then traded him to the Giants for a box of cigars for Bob Castellini. I mean, what would the Reds do with a legit platoon catcher who can also play another position in the field, who has all his service time in front of him? Beats me.
The Giants will be without 2B Thairo Estrada, arguably their best player, who suffered a fractured hand on a hit-by-pitch earlier this month. The 27-year-old Estrada had already amassed 2.6 fWAR, hitting nine homers, stealing 18 bases and playing superlative defense at second. He’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Catcher Patrick Bailey may sneak into the NL Rookie of the Year discussion. The 24-year-old Bailey was the Giants number one draft pick in 2020 (13th overall). He was called up on May 19 and has taken over the club’s catching duties. Bailey is now the heir apparent to Buster Posey, who retired suddenly at the end of the 2021 season. Bailey plays terrific defense and has hit for power with five homers in 43 games. His batting average (.282) seems unsustainable given his BABIP (.370) is well above his minor league rate. But he does have a strong xwOBA (.356).
Starting Pitcher Matchups
Overall, the Giants rotation is either one of the best (ERA #8, xFIP #2) or toward the middle (xwOBA #18) of the league. By comparison, no matter how you measure it, the Reds rotation has been in the bottom five. The Reds will miss Alex Wood, who pitched Sunday.
Logan Webb has been the Giants top starting pitcher in 2023. His most recent start was at home against the Colorado Rockies where he threw a complete-game shutout with ten strikeouts and no walks. Webb has pitched at least five innings in all 19 starts. In only three games has he failed to go six. He’s likely to be pitching with extra motivation after being snubbed for the NL All-Star team. Webb has given up a bit of hard contact but his walk-rate is in the top 93rd percentile. He throws a low-spin sinker as a fastball (92 mph) plus a changeup and slider. The change has been his best pitch (.245 xwOBA).
As of late Monday morning, the Giants still haven’t identified their starters for the Tuesday-Thursday games. My guess is they’ll be Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling and Alex Cobb. The holdup might be deciding what to do with Ryan Walker, who they’ve been using as an opener. So we’ll go with the rest of these matchups for now. I’d be surprised if the Reds don’t see these guys in some combination.
The Giants have indicated they’ll be activating former Red Anthony DeSclafani from the IL on Tuesday. DeSclafani, who has made 17 starts for the Giants this season, went on the IL (shoulder) July 2. He came to the Reds in 2014 from the Marlins in exchange for Mat Latos. From 2015-2020, DeSclafani started 100 games for the Reds. He’s on his second contract with San Francisco. Three years for $36 million. DeSclafani features a slider (44%) and a couple varieties of fastballs around 93 mph. Left-handed batters will see a healthy dose of a changeup as well.
Ross Stripling is a veteran who pitched multiple seasons for the Dodgers and Blue Jays before coming to the Giants in 2023 as a free agent. He’s missed more than a month this year with back issues. This will be his fifth start since returning from the IL. Stripling has been torched by home runs in 2023 although his average exit velocity (90 mph) is in line with his career numbers. He won’t walk many batters. Stripling continues to move away from his hittable fastball (92 mph) and toward his slider. He also throws a changeup and curve.
Alex Cobb has had a good enough season that he pitched the 4th inning for the NL All-Stars last week. The veteran, with his fourth club, has a history of injuries but did make 28 starts for the Giants last year and hasn’t missed a turn in 2023. Cobb has become an extreme ground-ball pitcher (57.5%) after building a splitter into his pitch portfolio a few years ago. He throws it plus his sinker about 80% of the time. Cobb is another low walk-rate in the Giants rotation.
Bullpen
The Giants have the best bullpen in MLB based on xwOBA and rate top-10 by other measures.
Camilo Doval is an excellent closer, with 28 saves out of 30 opportunities this year. It’s the second year in this role for the 26-year-old Doval. He rates well in strikeouts (93rd percentile), xBA (92nd percentile) and xwOBA (93rd percentile). Doval’s 100-mph cutter is one of the best pitches in baseball, with a .207 xwOBA. He throws a slider, cutter and sinker (98 mph) each about a third of the time. Doval, who covered the 7th inning for the NL All-Star team, recorded the six highest pitch velocities in last week’s game.
Tyler Rogers has been Doval’s equal at the back end of the Giants bullpen. The right-handed submarine pitcher uses a different formula for getting batters out, but it has been just as effective. Rogers’ strikeout rate is about half that of Doval’s, but he induces weak contact. This Rogers graphic from Baseball Savant tells you what you need to know.
Yes, Taylor Rogers is the extremely identical twin brother of Tyler, the fourth set of twins in MLB history to play on the same team. The main difference is that Taylor is a lefty while his brother throws with his right hand. He’s closed for the Twins and Padres. Taylor has the strikeout rate of a normal ace reliever (30.5%) and is also having an excellent season.
Conclusion
The Giants are playing well despite losing Estrada to the IL. They’re mostly a veteran team with solid-to-good pitching. Webb is a top-tier starter. The bullpen is outstanding, with a shutdown closer and identical twin brothers who somehow throw with different arms. Bailey and Matos are notable rookies. Aside from a possible edge to the Giants in starting pitching, the two teams are evenly matched. San Francisco will present a challenge for the young Reds and added experience facing a team competing for the postseason. Should be a great series.
Photos: Giants Facebook and Twitter
