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The Reds travel to Washington D.C. for a four-game series beginning tonight. The Nationals are 33-49 and in last place in the NL East, 22 games behind Atlanta. The appears to be a clear ordering of the worst teams in MLB, with Oakland, Kansas City and Colorado consensus #30-#28 respectively. Checking in at #27 across the board — FanGraphs, The Athletic (where the Reds are #8!), CBS and ESPN — are the Washington Nationals.
- Monday (6:05 pm)
- Tuesday (11:05 am) — early Fourth of July start
- Wednesday (7:05 pm)
- Thursday (1:05 pm)
The Nationals have fallen a long way in a short time. In 2019, they captured the World Series behind Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Sean Doolittle. Since then, they’ve never finished above last place in the NL East. Last season, the Nationals lost 107 games and are on track in 2023 to drop nearly 100. They have cut payroll from $200 million in 2019 to $100 million this year.
The Nationals were founding members of the lose-on-purpose club under direction of former Reds GM Jim Bowden. Washington turned two seasons of posting the sport’s worst record into Strasburg (2009) and Bryce Harper (2010). The Reds found themselves in a similar situation with back-to-back #2 picks of Hunter Greene (2017) and Nick Senzel (2016). The Nationals did a lot better with Harper — 28 WAR over seven seasons — than the Reds have done with Senzel (-1 WAR in five seasons). It’s yet to be seen how Greene’s career with the Reds compares to Strasburg ( 34 WAR in 13 seasons).
The Nationals took the season series from the Reds last year, 4-3. The Nats have dominated the matchup between the two teams the past five years, going 23-11. The Reds did win the 2021 series 5-2.
Position Players
The Nationals rank 23rd in run production (wRC+), 6th in batting average (BA), 28th in power (ISO), 26th in stolen bases (SB) and like the Reds, in the bottom third of the league in defense. Stats below through Saturday.
The Nationals position player roster is a mix of low-level free agents and trade acquisitions from their extreme rebuild. RF Lane Thomas came to Nationals in a 2021 deadline trade with the Cardinals in exchange for 37-year-old Jon Lester. Thomas has been their best hitter based on scorebook outcomes, but he’s just above average measured by contact quality.
Catcher Keibert Ruiz was acquired in the massive 2021 deadline trade with the Dodgers that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles. The switch-hitting Ruiz has hit the ball hard — with the team’s best xwOBA by far — but not much to show for it yet in the record book. Ruiz DHs when he doesn’t catch.
Slick fielding CJ Abrams was one of the five players the Nationals received in return for Juan Soto last summer in a trade with the Padres. The 22-year-old shortstop has lived up to his fielding-first scouting report when at the plate.
Starting Pitcher Matchups
Overall, the Nationals starting rotation ranks as low as the Reds. They are 20th in ERA, 27th in SIERA and 27th in xERA, while the Reds are 28th, 22nd, and 26th respectively. We’ll get to see a lot of young pitching in this series.
Rookie Jake Irvin was a fourth round draft pick by the Nationals in 2018. He made five starts at Triple-A this year before being promoted. Irvin’s numbers this year in the minors and majors are mediocre at best. He’s in the bottom 1% in whiff-rate and bottom 16% in strikeout rate. He’s a fastball (93.7 mph), sinker, curveball pitcher. Tonight’s start will be Irvin’s eleventh for the Nats. Irvin and Luke Weaver make for an even matchup.
There’s an old joke where one person complains to a friend the food at a restaurant is terrible. The friend replies “yes, and such small portions.” The Nationals probably wished they were getting smaller portions of Patrick Corbin. But he continues to takes the ball every fifth day. The Nationals signed the lefty Corbin to a 6-year, $140 million free agent contract, starting with the 2019 season. He joined Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in a rotation that was pivotal to the Nats winning the World Series in Corbin’s first year in Washington. After that, Corbin has been below-average. This will be his 18th start in 2023. The Reds haven’t named a starter yet for Tuesday.
Reds fans remember Josiah Gray as the team’s second-round pick in 2018. A few months after that he was part of the monster trade with the Dodgers that included Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and Homer Bailey. Gray progressed rapidly through the Dodger system before being traded at the 2021 deadline for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. The Nationals plugged Gray right into their rotation and 57 starts later, here we are. Gray’s ERA is lower this year, but his underlying stats are about the same as last year — solid. He’s below average in strikeouts and walks, but has been successful at limiting hard contact. This could be a good, close pairing with Graham Ashcraft. Gray throws a bunch of pitches, with a slider and four-seam fastball the most common, accounting for 50% of his deliveries.
MacKenzie Gore came to the Nationals last year at the trade deadline as part of the haul Washington got for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Gore had started more than a dozen games for the Padres but suffered elbow inflammation around the time of the trade. The Nationals assigned him to Triple-A where he made just four starts. Gore broke camp with the Nationals and this will be his 18th start of 2023. Gore has a big arm. He’s in the top quarter in strikeouts but the bottom quarter in walks. He’s been hit hard, which is why his xERA is his highest metric. Gore throws a 95-mph fastball 60% of the time and split the remaining 40% of his portfolio between a curve and slider. Edge in this matchup to the Nationals, but Williamson is coming off a good five-inning start against the Padres.
Bullpen
The Nationals bullpen is either the worst or second-worst relief corps in the majors, depending how you measure it. Several of the pitchers on this list have limited major league experience. Amos Willingham, Joe La Sorsa and Jose A. Ferrer were called up last week. They do have a couple big arms to throw. The co-closers each top 97 mph with their fastballs and are decent.
Conclusion
The Washington Nationals aren’t good. The consensus of experts who rank the teams is they’re one of the four worst teams in MLB. While the Brewers will be battling the Cubs for four games, the Reds have an opportunity to win a few on the road leading up to the nine big games with Milwaukee in July.
