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Welcome to Red Monday, where Reds fans can start the week with clear-eyed analysis of how the team is doing and where it’s headed.
The Week That Was
The Reds shook off a six-game losing streak dating to before the All-Star game and put up a 5-2 week. David Bell’s team is 55-46. With the Brewers loss yesterday, the Reds head to Milwaukee a half-game out of first in the NL Central. Look for our preview of that series later this morning.
The Reds split a four-game series with the San Francisco Giants.
- Monday The offensive slump continued with a 4-2 loss that was suspended due to rain and completed Tuesday. Jonathan India had three of the Reds four hits, including his 14th homer of the season. Matt McLain added a solo shot. Brandon Williamson went six innings with three walks and three strikeouts. Elly De La Cruz stole his 17th base but also was caught stealing for the third time.
- Tuesday The bats woke up but the Giants won an 11-10 slugfest. The Reds jumped out to an early 4-1 lead off Anthony DeSclafani, but Luke Weaver didn’t get through three innings and the bullpen kept allowing runs. Reds pitchers walked eight Giants batters. Four Reds hit homers: Jake Fraley (13), Joey Votto (8), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1) and Will Benson (5).
- Wednesday The Reds had only four hits and drew no walks but made a 3-run homer by Will Benson in the 3rd inning hold up behind solid pitching. Graham Ashcraft had a good start followed by shutout relief innings from Ian Gibaut, Lucas Sims and Alexis Diaz. Reds snap a six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win.
- Thursday Andrew Abbott dominated San Francisco for eight innings as the Reds won 5-1 for a series split. Luke Maile had three hits including his fourth homer of the season. Jonathan India, Jake Fraley and Will Benson had two hits each. Benson added a walk and stolen base.
The Arizona Diamondbacks came to Cincinnati in second place in the NL West and ahead of the Reds in the Wild Card race.
- Friday The Reds winning streak reaches three with a 9-6 win. The biggest blow came from Matt McLain, who delivered a grand slam, his 9th homer of the season. Spencer Steer also drove in three runs with a double and single. Will Benson stayed hot with a double and two walks. Ben Lively and Fernando Cruz each gave up three runs. Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Alexis Diaz pitched shutout innings in relief.
- Saturday The Reds won 4-2 on a great start from Brandon Williamson and three back-to-back-to-back home runs by TJ Friedl, Matt McLain and Jake Fraley. Williamson went six innings giving a run on three hits and a walk. He struck out five. Alexis Diaz recorded his 29th save.
- Sunday The Reds completed a sweep of the Diamondbacks with a 7-3 win. Elly De La Cruz led off with a homer. Nick Senzel smacked his 8th of the year, this one off a right-handed pitcher. The bullpen shut down Arizona for the final five innings. Lucas Sims earned his second save of the season. Christian Encarnacion-Strand had two hits and a walk. Winning streak at five.
The Week to Come
The Reds moved up in class last week, with seven home games against second-place teams. This week is even more challenging, with games against first-place teams, all on the road:
- Three in Milwaukee against the Brewers (8:10 pm, 8:10 am, 2:10 pm)
- Thursday off day
- Three in Los Angeles against the Dodgers (10:10 pm, 9:10 pm, 4:10 pm)
Powerhouse
On May 25, the Reds lost 2-1 to the Cardinals at Great American Ball Park. It dropped the club’s record to 21-29 for the season’s first 50 games. The Reds ranked 25th in run production (wRC+ of 86) and 28th in contact quality (xwOBA). The offense was average in most respects: batting average (15th), stolen bases (13th), base running (16th), and walks (9th).
The area where the Reds lagged most was clear: hitting for power. They were 28th in home runs, 27th in isolated power and last in average exit velocity.
May 26 was when things started to change. The Reds scored 9 runs that day and 8, 8 and 9 the following three games. Over the 40 games from May 26 to the day before the All-Star break, the Reds scored 237 runs, the most in MLB. In those first 50 games, they scored an average of 4.3 runs per game. In the next 40, their average jumped to almost six runs (5.92).
During the offensive surge, the Reds hit the 5th most home runs and had the 4th highest isolated power. Overall, their run production was 4th (wRC+ of 117) and their quality of contact (xwOBA) was 5th.
Remember the early part of the season when Reds broadcasters took every available opportunity to let us know the Reds weren’t going to hit for power and would have to use small ball? They were right. For the twenty games of April 12 to May 2, the Reds hit just seven home runs. Through 5/25, they averaged less than a home run (0.75/game). But once they turned the corner, the Reds have been able to rely on the long ball. In the next 40 games, they doubled their home run rate (1.5/game). In the 20 games from June 17 to July 8, the Reds averaged 2.0 home runs/game.
To be sure, other parts of the offense improved along with the power starting on May 26. The club was 1st in stolen bases and base running, 4th in walks and 5th in batting average. But game after game, home runs proved to be the difference. Here are a few examples:
On May 31, Spencer Steer belted a 2-run homer over the Green Monster to beat the Red Sox 5-4.
Four home runs accounted for eight of the Reds runs in an 11-10 win over Atlanta, including this bomb from Joey Votto.
All four runs in this game were scored on home runs. This two-run blast by Tyler Stephenson in the 8th inning gave the Reds a 4-3 series-clinching win over the Padres.
Trust me, there are countless examples. That’s the point. The Reds have become a home run hitting machine. Just Saturday they went back-to-back-to-back to edge the Diamondbacks 4-2. And Matt McLain’s grand slam Friday night is still fresh in our minds.
What happened? No one cause.
A few players joined the team. Matt McLain (May 15) has 10 homers. Joey Votto (June 19) has 8. The good Will Benson (6 homers) replaced the bad Will Benson (0 homers) on May 21. But the credit for the home run surge is widespread. Spencer Steer (14), Jonathan India (14) and Jake Fraley (14) lead the club. Five of Tyler Stephenson’s seven homers have come in the last month or so. Elly De La Cruz has four since he joined the club on June 6. Nick Senzel has 8 as a part-time player.
Sure, the Reds still steal bases — MLB-leading 24 in July — and at a 79% success rate it helps at the margin. FanGraphs puts the value of the Reds stolen base attempts at 4.1 runs above average. But that “Reds need to win with small ball” narrative can now safely be shelved, because the Reds have become one of the top power-hitting teams in the big leagues, and have been for the last couple months.
The De La Cruz Blues
In a little more than a month with the Reds, Elly De La Cruz has already proven to be extraordinary, on a glide path to superstardom. The just-21 infielder has proven he can affect the outcome of big league games with his extraordinary arm, legs, glove and bat. What’s more, we’ve only glimpsed a tiny fraction of the historic feats he seems destined to accomplish in professional baseball.
If you extrapolate De La Cruz’s production from his first 40 games over a full 162-game season the results are All-Star calibre. How about 37 doubles, 8 triples, 17 home runs, 71 stolen bases and129 runs scored?
But with all that wonder, a few concerns have arisen in De La Cruz’s performance.
- 32% strikeout rate (league average 22.7%)
- 6.3% walk rate (league average 8.6%)
- 38% chase rate (league average 28.6%)
- 58% ground ball rate (league average 42.5%)
- 2º average launch angle (league average 20º)
- .290 xwOBA (league average .315)
xwOBA is a composite of contact quality plus walks. De La Cruz has been below league average by that measure for much of the season.
A big factor in the steepness of De La Cruz’s learning curve is that pitchers quickly stopped throwing him fastballs. Of the 306 major league hitters who have had at least 150 plate appearances, he has seen the lowest percentage of fastballs (32%) in the league. Average is 48%. His whiff rate is only 18% on fastballs and 38% on every other kind of pitch. But it’s not that De La Cruz’s has obliterated the fastballs that have come his way. His xwOBA (.302) on that pitch is way below league average (.352).
Before yesterday’s leadoff home run, De La Cruz was 2-for-35 with two singles in the nine games since the All-Star break. That’s isolated power of .000 and a wRC+ of -44. He stole one base over that stretch and was caught stealing twice. He’s had a bit of bad luck on balls in play that were hard hit. But that’s a short slump by any definition.
If you’re looking for an underlying cause, there are two. A high chase rate, particularly on non-fastballs, leads to too many strikeouts and too few walks. As it is for every player, contact on pitches out of the zone is far inferior in quality to contact on pitches in the zone. De La Cruz will have to improve his chase-rate.
Second, his launch angle is catastrophic. Launch may even be the wrong word. De La Cruz is cranking out more ground balls than almost every other player. Even if you’re the fastest runner in the game (and he is), hitting ground balls nearly 60% of the time is going to lower the ceiling of your production. Yes, he’ll beat out a high share due to his speed. But grounders seldom go for extra bases, can turn into double plays and never become home runs. The league’s BABIP on ground balls is .248. De La Cruz’s is .300. Seven out of ten of his grounders go for outs.
The purpose of pointing out De La Cruz’s weaknesses isn’t to encourage pessimism. It’s to give us specific things to watch (with our clear eyes) to recognize when his game is improving. Yesterday, in addition to his 407-foot home run (gulp), he struck out once and hit two ground balls.
When we see Elly De La Cruz cut down on his chase rate and ground balls, we’ll know he’s on his way to fulfilling his ample promise.
In Case You Missed It
Noelvi Marte blasted a 464-foot home run that cleared Louisville’s stadium. It was Marte’s first homer for the Triple-A Bats.
[Featured image: Reds Facebook]
