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Welcome to Red Monday, where Reds fans can start their week with clear-eyed analysis of how the team is doing and where it’s headed.
The Week That Was
During the All-Star break, Matt and I wrote 12,000 words reviewing first-half performances of the Reds position players, starting pitchers and relievers. If you haven’t read them yet, they’re still timely.
The Reds were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, bringing their record to 50-44, two games behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
- Friday The Reds were shutout by the Brewers 1-0. Graham Ashcraft, Lucas Sims, Derek Law and Fernando Cruz combined to limit Milwaukee to one run. But the Brewers, behind starter Corbin Burnes and the terrific bullpen trio of Elvis Peguero, Joel Payamps and Devin Williams struck out 18 Reds and held Bell’s team to two hits and two walks.
- Saturday The Reds were shutout again, this time losing 3-0. Freddy Peralta and the same bullpen guys limited the Reds to one hit and three walks. Andrew Abbott gave up two home runs. He walked two and struck out three. Buck Farmer gave up another home run — four in his last six appearances.
- Sunday The Reds surrendered a late lead, losing 4-3. A Joey Votto double drove in the Reds first run, breaking a streak of eleven billion scoreless innings. Jake Fraley followed up the next inning with his 12th home run. The Brewers scored the decisive two runs in the 8th. Lucas Sims gave up a leadoff walk. Former Red Jesse Winker singled. A sacrifice fly drove in one run, but a poor decision/throw by TJ Friedl allowed the trailing runner to get to second base where he scored on a two-out single.
The Week to Come
The good news is the Reds play all seven games this week at home. The bad news is both opponents have better records than the Reds.
- Four with the San Francisco Giants (7:10 pm, 7:10 am, 7:10 pm, 12:35 pm)
- Three with the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 pm, 4:10 pm, 1:40 pm)
The Encarnacion-Strand Debut
Rumor has turned to semi-confirmation that the Reds intend to promote infielder and power-hitter Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the big league club today. When news broke last night, Matt posted a first-look analysis. Here are a few additional thoughts.
The prospect of Encarnacion-Strand slugging his way around Major League parks can’t help but generate excitement and hope for Reds fans. If his talents translate to the majors quickly it will be another boost to the Reds offense.
The timing of consequential front office moves — and have no doubt, this is a biggie — is always scrutinized. Did the club keep the player down too long? Did it advance him too quickly? With the Elly De La Cruz call up in early June, one could question why the Reds waited until after a series where first-place Milwaukee took three out of four. Instead, De La Cruz appeared in a Reds uniform the next day against the Dodgers. Today’s significant promotion also comes after head-to-head battle with Milwaukee.
Let’s hope the front office made the decision to promote Encarnacion-Strand independent of the outcome of the past weekend’s series. It would mean they think he’s ready to contribute at the plate and on the field, that he improved his defense at first and the quality of his at bats. It would mean the front office and David Bell have discussed and come up with a solid plan to get Encarnacion-Strand in the lineup on a regular basis. That they have a way to proceed with playing time decisions that won’t be too disruptive of the successful chemistry Bell has built.
It would be an enormous mistake if the promotion was in any way a reaction to recent box scores. Not because Encarnacion-Strand isn’t good enough, but because the last series is a tiny blip in a long season. As I elaborate below, four losses are no reason for fans (or the front office) to panic. The lack of offense in those games is no more an accurate measure of who the Reds are than the string of games around Memorial Day when Bell’s club scored eight or nine runs. If the Milwaukee series precipitated Encarnacion-Strand’s call up, it means he isn’t as ready as the front office had judged he needed to be.
A rushed, panicked moved would be a terrible early sign for whether Reds ownership and the front office have the judgment it takes to pull off this rebuild over the next couple years.
For now, it will be interesting to watch how Bell handles playing time and how the players reacts to a new teammate. We’ll keep an eye on Encarnacion-Strand’s strikeout and chase rate, as well as swooning over his prodigious home run blasts.
What to Make of the Offense
It wasn’t pretty. Three runs in four games. A string of losses pinned on a lack of offense.
Is it time to panic as a reaction to the first post-Elly team slump? What should we make of it?
What we should make of it is nothing. That’s right. Zip, zilch, nada. Relax and welcome to the Big 162 folks.
Over a six month season, every team endures cold streaks. The 1975 Big Red Machine was shut out consecutive nights and managed only five runs over four games. The 1976 team had a stretch of four games when it produced just six runs combined. The 1990 Reds? They had one streak of nine games with a total of 17 runs and a separate stretch of 10 runs in five games.
If short slumps can happen to the greatest offensive unit in history and wire-to-wire champs, it’s no surprise or cause for concern when one turns up with a lineup full of rookies and players who haven’t reached arbitration. If anything, younger teams are bound to have higher variance in performance.
Keep in mind, this is the team that has scored eight (!) or more runs 17 times in the past 45 games. It’s the same group with the second-most runs in MLB since Elly De La Cruz was called up (and that counts the Milwaukee series). No, this team can and will cross the plate.
Remember the end of May? The pre-Elly Reds scored 10, 9, 8, 8 and 9 runs over six games. You know what that is? It’s the other improbable tail of a 162-game run scoring distribution. The 2023 Reds posted 68 runs during their 12-game winning streak. Yes, they were shutout three times. But in the five games immediately prior to that, David Bell’s gang scored 33 runs.
Also worth noting, the Brewers can pitch a little.
So, deep breath. Resist the urge to panic. The runs will be return in quantity.
But let’s be clear-eyed and candid. We knew the Reds were due for a little less offense.
At the All-Star break, Spencer Steer and Will Benson had hit dozens of points better than their pre-season projections. TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz had hit 40 points beyond what than their contact quality indicated. Matt McLain would inevitably cool off from his blazing start. And Joey Votto had rocketed 40 points over his contact quality and 50 points over his pre-season projection. That’s six everyday players defying gravity. Until they couldn’t.
How good will the Reds offense be the rest of the way?
We don’t know exactly. Too many of the players are young with a huge range of possible outcomes. But their track record for scoring runs over a couple months is strong evidence the team has a good offense. They’ve hit for average, power, take walks and run the bases. That promising combination hasn’t vanished.
Checking In on Our Bold Preseason Predictions
At the start of the season, our writers made “bold” predictions for the 2023 season, each of us made one for hitters and one for pitchers. Let’s see how we’re looking with two-and-a-half months left in the season. First the hitters:
Six Reds will steal 10 or more bases. (Matt Wilkes) TJ Friedl (16), Jake Fraley (16), Elly De La Cruz (16) and Jonathan India (12) have already surpassed the threshold. Spencer Steer (9), Stuart Fairchild (9), Will Benson (8) and Matt McLain (7) all have excellent chances to get to 10. Likely.
The Reds will have an NL Rookie of the Year Finalist – and it’s not Elly De La Cruz. (Kyle Berger) Kyle was a little vague about what “finalist” means, but he identified Spencer Steer, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as having a good chance of getting into the conversation. There’s a ways still to go and the Reds could have more than one. But EDLC looks like he has a good chance of being the highest vote getter on the Reds. So-So.
Jake Fraley will hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases. (Steve Mancuso) Fraley has 16 stolen bases and hit his 12th homer yesterday. The season is about 60% over. If he stays healthy, the stolen base target seems reasonable, but he’d have to accelerate his home run pace to get close to 25. Half Right, Half Wrong.
Tyler Stephenson Makes the All-Star Team. (Mike Perry) This one is settled. Wrong.
Now the pitcher predictions:
Nick Lodolo is a top-10 NL pitcher in WAR and earns Cy Young votes. (Matt Wilkes) This one got overrun by injuries to Lodolo. It looks iffy whether he’ll make it back before September. Nope.
Graham Ashcraft nearly doubles his strikeout rate. (Kyle Berger) Ashcraft’s strikeout rate in 2022 was 15.3%. His current rate in 2023 is 15.9%. Although there have been times it’s seemed Ashcraft would meaningfully elevate his strikeout rate, doubling it seems unlikely. Improbable.
Hunter Greene finishes in the top ten for NL strikeouts, with over 200 Ks. (Mike Perry) Another prediction undone by an injury. Hunter Greene does have a handsome strikeout rate (31.4%). It’s the fifth-highest for starting pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings. Greene got to 100 Ks in just 14 starts, so if he’d stayed healthy, it looks like Mike would have scored here. Unlikely.
Alexis Diaz will set a franchise record for Saves in a single season. (Steve Mancuso) This one will be close. Jeff Brantley holds the Reds record for most Saves in a single season with 44 in 1996. Diaz has 26 in 60% of the season. A straight extrapolation puts Diaz at 45. He’ll have to avoid any trips to the IL and not go into a slump. Down to the Wire.
In Case You Missed It
Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits his 20th homer, over the batter’s eye.
[Featured image: Reds Facebook]
