Reds 2023 draft recap: Get to know Rhett Lowder, Ty Floyd, and Sammy Stafura

by — July 9, 2023 in MLB Draft

The Reds have three picks in the first two rounds of the 2023 MLB Draft. Here’s what to know about each selection.

#7 overall — Rhett Lowder, right-handed pitcher (Wake Forest)

After none of the top-ranked prospects fell, the Reds selected Rhett Lowder, a right-handed pitcher from Wake Forest University, with their first pick of the night. Standing at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Lowder recently starred in the College World Series, where Wake Forest was the top overall seed and advanced to the semifinals before falling to eventual champion LSU. The 21-year-old went toe to toe with top overall pick Paul Skenes in Wake’s elimination game, firing seven shutout innings. Lowder posted a 1.87 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate in 120.1 innings during his junior campaign, winning ACC Pitcher of the Year for the second consecutive season.

MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades (out of 80)

Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60

Lowder was ranked as the #6 prospect in the draft by MLB Pipeline, #8 by Baseball America, and #9 by both FanGraphs and The Athletic.

Scouting reports widely consider Lowder to be a high-floor, low-risk pitcher who could reach the big leagues quickly. In that sense, he’s similar to Mike Leake, who the Reds selected with the eighth overall pick in 2009 and never pitched in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. Lowder likely won’t reach the big leagues that quickly, but he’s already regarded as a polished pitcher. The Reds could be aggressive with Lowder, starting him in High-A Dayton.

Lowder likely will not get a heavy workload for the rest of the season. He’s already thrown 120 innings in college this year and had never thrown more than 99.1 in a season previously. Nick Lodolo was the last college pitcher taken by the Reds in the first round, and he pitched just 18.1 innings the remainder of the year after being drafted. Andrew Abbott, taken in the second round of the 2021 draft after pitching 106.2 innings at the University of Virginia, threw only 13 innings as a pro the rest of the summer.

Why is Lowder considered so polished? He has excellent command and control (see the walk rate above) as well as three above-average pitches. Lowder throws a sinking fastball with arm-side run that gets more ground balls than whiffs. His fastball sits around 94 mph and can touch 97.

Lowder’s best pitch is a plus changeup, which is considered by some to be the best in the 2023 draft class. Reports note that Lowder is still working to improve his slider, but it flashed as a plus pitch at times as a junior. Both pitches are strong swing-and-miss offerings, with his changeup sitting in the mid-upper 80s and his slider in the low-mid 80s.

The recommended slot value for the seventh overall pick in this year’s draft is $6,275,200. It’d be surprising if Lowder goes over that slot value by any significant amount, and he could sign for less as a polished college pitcher without a lot of additional projection. Notably, the Reds have the sixth-largest bonus pool in this years draft ($13,785,200).

Here’s what various outlets and writers have to say about Lowder:

  • FanGraphs: “While not a complete prospect, Lowder looks like a quick moving no. 4/5 starter who has a shot to really pop if he can put some hair on the chest of his fastball.”
  • MLB Pipeline: “He has one of the highest floors in this Draft and should become at least a durable mid-rotation starter.”
  • Baseball America: “There are pitchers with ‘louder’ pure stuff, but it would be hard to find a pitcher with better feel for a legitimate three-pitch mix.”
  • The Athletic (Keith Law): “It’s at least No. 3 starter stuff and he could end up a strong No. 2 for most teams with some delivery help, assuming that gives him another half-grade of command.”

#38 overall — Ty Floyd, right-handed pitcher (LSU)

Sticking with the theme of #GetThePitching, the Reds selected right-handed pitcher Ty Floyd with their competitive balance pick. Like Lowder, Floyd was a star in this year’s College World Series for the national champion LSU squad. Although he was overshadowed a bit by being teammates with Skenes, Floyd turned heads by striking out 10 in five innings against Wake Forest in the second round. He then followed that up by fanning 17 batters across eight innings in Game 1 of the finals against Florida. Needless to say, those performances probably helped Floyd’s draft stock.

Overall, Floyd had a 4.35 ERA with a 31.0% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate in 91 innings during his junior season in Baton Rouge.

MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades (out of 80)

Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45

At 6-foot-2, 200 pounds (just like Lowder), Floyd was ranked as the #58 prospect in the draft by MLB Pipeline, #44 by Baseball America, #48 by FanGraphs, and #47 by The Athletic.

Floyd may not have the high floor of Lowder, but his ceiling may be higher because of his fastball’s elite swing-and-miss ability. On ESPN’s draft coverage, prospect expert Kiley McDaniel compared Floyd to Braves ace Spencer Strider, as did Keith Law of The Athletic. Floyd’s fastball is a sight to behold. The velocity is strong — he sits in the mid-90s and can touch 98 — but what stands out is its impressive rise, a key component for getting swings and misses up in the zone. You can get a good sense of how explosive his fastball is here:

Per Baseball America, Floyd threw his fastball 70% of the time during the 2023 season. Floyd doesn’t have a standout secondary pitch, however. The slider is considered the best of the bunch, while his curveball and changeup are average. Floyd didn’t walk an alarming number of batters in college, but control is an area he’ll need to improve as well.

The recommended slot value for the 38th overall pick in this year’s draft is $2,255,100. As a college player, Floyd should sign for somewhere in that neighborhood, allowing the Reds to potentially go over slot value later in the draft.

Here’s what various outlets and writers have to say about Floyd:

  • FanGraphs: “Floyd was a two-year starter at LSU whose stock exploded during the College World Series when he was topping out at 98 and bending in a nasty slider, which was suddenly much harder than his regular season sliders, often 87 mph or so.”
  • MLB Pipeline: “He could be a No. 4 starter at the big league level if he can refine his secondary pitches and throw them for strikes more often. If he can’t, then he profiles as a fastball-heavy reliever.”
  • Baseball America: “Floyd developed a reputation as a one-pitch arm thanks to the 81% usage rate of his fastball in 2022. He went to the pitch often for good reason. It averaged 94-95 mph this spring and touched 98, with excellent riding life and 19 inches of induced vertical break that generates tons of whiffs at the top of the zone. He did dial that usage rate down to just 70% in 2023 thanks to improved breaking stuff.”
  • The Athletic (Keith Law): “Scouts are already comparing him to Spencer Strider for his ability to miss bats with his fastball alone, and I think you can project him as a starter given how well that pitch plays and the way the delivery works.”

#43 overall — Sammy Stafura, shortstop (Walter Panas High School, New York)

With their second-round pick, the Reds selected shortstop Sammy Stafura out of Walter Panas High School in Cortlandt Manor, New York. The 18-year-old, who bats right-handed and stands at 6-feet and 188 pounds, is currently committed to play collegiately at Clemson. He hit .516/.582/1.107 with 11 home runs during his senior season, en route to being named the Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of New York.

MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades (out of 80)

Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 65 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45

Stafura was ranked as the #32 prospect in the draft by MLB Pipeline, #33 by Baseball America, #57 by FanGraphs, and #25 by The Athletic.

Scouting reports seem split on Stafura’s strengths as a hitter. Some, like MLB Pipeline, feel he’ll hit for more power than contact due to a “stiff” swing. Others, like The Athletic, feel he’ll be a contact-oriented hitter with modest pop. Baseball America notes that Stafura has added strength and adjusted his swing to get more lift. He certainly hit some impressive home runs in high school (albeit in a small home park, per Baseball America’s report), such as this walk-off blast:

Defensively, Stafura has a good shot to stick at shortstop and is well-regarded for his speed and range.

The recommended slot value for the 43rd overall pick in this year’s draft is $1,998,200. Stafura will almost certainly go over that amount, potentially by quite a bit. He was considered a first-round talent, but signability concerns pushed him down the board. With the Reds likely saving money by drafting college players with their first two picks, they should have plenty of flexibility to go over slot and keep Stafura from going to college.

Here’s what various outlets and writers have to say about Floyd:

  • FanGraphs: “Most importantly, Stafura can hit … He isn’t an explosive rotational athlete, but he tracks pitches like a missile defense system and has a short, compact swing.”
  • MLB Pipeline: “He can drive the ball to all fields, with the ability to hit it hard the other way at times, but it’s strength over bat speed with a bit of a stiff swing, leading some to see him more as a power-over-hit type.”
  • Baseball America: “Added strength and a swing path with more lift than it had last summer has helped Stafura produce more power, with a chance to be a 20-25 home run hitter. He’s a plus runner who impressed scouts with his defense.”
  • The Athletic (Keith Law): “Stafura is a high-contact infielder with strong strike zone judgment, staying upright and balanced through the ball for excellent plate coverage, although right now he’s only flashed occasional power. He projects to stay at shortstop with good lateral range and a plus arm.”

Featured photo by Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire

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Matt Wilkes

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.

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