RC+ Statcast Stumper: Average Exit Velocity

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If it’s Thursday, it must be RC+ Statcast Stumper Day! We take a ballpark tradition and give it a modern twist. Our weekly feature pays homage to the Reds Scoreboard Stumper with a question for fans that involves newer stats and metrics. Post your guesses in the comments (no peeking!) Correct answers will be revealed here later in the day.

Enjoy and thanks for playing!

Elly De La Cruz burst on the scene in 2023 with his video game style tools, including loud power. His 91.2 average exit velocity was the highest among all Reds (min 150 PA).

Question: Which Reds hitters ranked 2nd and 3rd in average exit velocity (min. 150 PA) in 2023? 

Exit velocity is straightforward. It is the speed at which a ball was hit by a batter as the ball comes off the bat, immediately after contact. This is by no means a definitive indication of a hitter’s abilities, and there are variations on this that may provide better predictive value (i.e. EV50), but ultimately hitters are trying to hit the ball hard, so let’s see who else from the Reds did that the most, on average, last season.

Answer: Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Will Benson

Christian Encarnacion-Strand delivered an impressive performance in his first taste of the big leagues last year. His 90.3 average exit velocity was 2nd on the Reds and 9th among all MLB rookies (min 150 PA), ahead of Royce Lewis, Nolan Jones and Corbin Carroll. While he only had 241 PA, his Statcast metrics related to contact looked rather rosy.

An interesting note about CES is that he did most of his damage against breaking and off-speed pitches, where his wOBA came in higher than expected. It will be interesting to see if he can do some more damage against fastballs this year, although his rough start involves lots of ugly numbers, including an 89.5 mph average exit velocity and 0.278 xwOBA against heaters.

Will Benson made the most of his opportunity with a new team and secured his spot in the Reds outfield. His 90.3 average exit velocity was 3rd on the club last year and 9th for a Red in the Statcast era (since 2015). Despite the hard contact, his results also outperformed expectations (0.369 wOBA vs 0.321 xwOBA) most likely due to an inflated BABIP (0.391). Even if he shows some regression, maintaining his power from 2023 gives the Reds some valuable pop to pair with nearly 90th percentile speed on the bases. So far in 2024, Benson is proving that last year was no fluke, with an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph, good for 81st percentile.