RC+ Statcast Stumper | Rookie Batter Run Value

by — April 4, 2024 in Analytics Explained

If it’s Thursday, it must be RC+ Statcast Stumper Day! We take a ballpark tradition and give it a modern twist. Our weekly feature pays homage to the Reds Scoreboard Stumper with a question for fans that involves newer stats and metrics. Post your guesses in the comments (no peeking!) Correct answers will be revealed here later in the day.

Enjoy and thanks for playing!

Stumper: According to Statcast’s Batter Run Value, since 2015, which Reds player had a top-five season for NL rookies? 

The stat Batter Run Value measures positive or negative values for a hitter based on every pitch he sees, taking into account the base-out situation, inning and game score . For example, how much is it worth for a batter to dig out of an 0-2 hole to work a walk in a tied game? Or how much does a key strikeout hurt a rally? Batter Run Value keeps track of the sum of all those little wins and losses over a full season. You can find it calculated at the Statcast Swing-Take leaderboard.

For more context, here’s the Reds single-season Batter Run Value leaderboard back through 2008, with break outs for different parts of the strike zone. Huh, that Votto guy must have been good. And check out Devin Mesoraco. How good could he have been if he’d stayed healthy?

In fact, if you look at the entire league, on a per-pitch basis (assuming at least 1500 pitches in a season) Mesoraco’s 2014 season is the seventh best!

Now, back to our specific question.

Reds position player rookies received a lot of attention in 2023. How did they stack up compared to other top Reds rookies at the most granular level of offensive performance? Since 2015, one Reds rookie finished in the top five for his season’s Batter Run Value. Who was it? Check back later for the right answer.

Answer: Jonathan India

While last year’s rookies got much of the attention, it is Jonathan India, often associated with the trade-block this past offseason, whose 2021 rookie season ranks in the top 5 behind Pete Alonso (2019), Kris Bryant (2015), Corbin Carroll (2023) and Nolan Jones (2023).

For 2023 seasons from Reds rookies, Matt McClain comes in 15th, Spencer Steer 19th, Christian Encarnacion-Strand in 57th, and Elly De La Cruz a sobering 184th.

India’s defense and base running negated a decent chunk of his overall value that year, highlighted by his fWAR ranking of 24th when comparing to the same group of rookies. But focusing solely on his offense and taking a very granular view, India’s Rookie of the Year performance rose to the top.

Thanks for reading and playing!

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Matt Habel

Matthew Habel was born and mostly raised in Cincinnati and was always a Reds fan growing up. Ironically, he did not become die-hard until moving to Pittsburgh after college and experiencing the 2013 Wild Card game behind enemy lines. While the "Cueto Game" is one of the worst sports moments of his life, he became enamored with the analytics side of the game after reading Big Data Baseball and watching the Pirates organization end their postseason drought. He started writing for Redleg Nation in 2017 and has enjoyed continuously learning more about the sport. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon where he loves exploring the great outdoors. Find him on Twitter @MattadorHeyBull

2 Responses

  1. Matt Wilkes says:
    April 4, 2024 at 10:55 AM

    I’ll go with Matt McLain!

  2. Thomas Green says:
    April 4, 2024 at 1:01 PM

    I feel like Suarez had an early year that was particularly strong, so I will go will him.

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