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Welcome to Red Monday at Reds Content Plus, a place where you can count on clear-eyed analysis of how the Reds are doing and where they are headed.
Last Week | Splitting Six
The Reds opened the week winning two of three in soggy Philadelphia.
- Monday The Reds beat the Phillies 6-3 in the series opener. Spencer Steer provided the final margin with a grand slam in the 10th inning, his first homer of the season. Leading off, Jonathan India had a triple and two walks, scoring a couple runs. Andrew Abbott threw 5.1 solid innings, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks. Abbott struck out four. The bullpen — Emilio Pagan, Justin Wilson, Brent Suter and Alexis Diaz — held the Phillies in check through nine innings, although Suter did give up two hits out of the three batters he faced. In particular, Diaz recorded five outs with no hits or walks.
- Tuesday The Phillies evened the series the next night with a 9-4 win powered by three Bryce Harper home runs. Other than allowing two solo shots from Harper, Graham Ashcraft turned in a good start, going six innings on 85 pitches. He gave up four hits and a walk while striking out five. Suter pitched the 7th, retiring just one of the six batters he faced. The Phillies scored five runs (four earned) that inning. Buck Farmer gave up a homer in the 8th. Steer led the offense with three singles. Elly De La Cruz committed two throwing errors.
- Wednesday After waiting several hours for the rain to slow down and behind terrific pitching from starter Frankie Montas and the bullpen, the Reds grabbed the deciding game of the series 4-1. For Montas, it was his second strong start in a Reds uniform, throwing five shutout innings before allowing a solo homer to Middletown’s Kyle Schwarber in the 6th. Montas gave up five hits and three walks while striking out five. Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, Justin Wilson and Fernando Cruz shut out the powerful Philly bats for the final 3.1 innings. Diaz earned his first 2024 save.
After an off day Thursday, David Bell’s team was back in action with a home weekend series against the New York Mets, who limped into town with a 1-5 record.
- Thursday The Reds wasted a strong start by Hunter Greene, dropping the series opener 3-2. Greene went six innings on 99 pitches. He gave up a run on three hits and a walk while striking out six. Cruz pitched the 7th, walking three and giving up what was at the time the go-ahead run. Emilio Pagan surrendered a crucial insurance to the Mets in the 8th on a solo home run. But beyond Spencer Steer’s second homer of the year the Reds offense was quiet. Jonathan India had three hits.
- Saturday The Rally Reds showed up Saturday afternoon, pulling off a 9-6 win after trailing 7-2 in the 6th. The big blow was by Steer, who blasted a three-run homer in the 8th. De La Cruz had a hit, a walk and scored three runs. Stuart Fairchild entered the game as the DH and went 2-for-2 with a run driven in. Fairchild was also involved in a double steal with Steer to score a run. The decisive bottom of the 8th, when the Reds scored five runs, featured a leadoff walk by Jeimer Candelario, a wild pitch on a Jake Fraley strikeout that let Fraley reach, a check-swing single into left by De La Cruz and a botched attempt to field a Fairchild bunt. Nick Martinez gave up five runs in five innings on eight hits and a walk. He struck out six.
- Sunday The Reds lost the series in a low-scoring 3-1 pitching duel. Andrew Abbott gave up a couple earned runs over five innings. He allowed seven hits and two walks. He struck out four. Brent Suter and Buck Farmer shut out the Mets over the last four innings. The Reds managed three hits, all singles. Luke Maile walked three times. On a sad note, pitcher Tejay Antone left after throwing one pitch. Antone has been fighting his way back from a second Tommy John surgery.
The Reds finished the week with a winning record at 5-4.
This Week | Brewers and White Sox
The Reds begin head-to-head play in the NL Central with a four-game home series against the Milwaukee Brewers (6-2). The Brewers have undertaken significant changes since they won the division last fall with a 92-70 record, starting at the top. President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, who led Milwaukee to five postseason appearances in his seven years running the club, left for the same job with the New York Mets. Craig Counsel, who had managed the team since 2015, took his skippering talents 90 minutes south to the Friendly Confines.
Looking at the player roster, the 2024 Brewers are without two of the three starting pitchers who have dominated the Reds and the rest of the division in recent years. Corbin Burnes, who had one season remaining before free agency, was traded to the Orioles in the offseason. Power arm Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery in October and may not pitch in 2024. All-Star closer Devin Williams is sidelined for half the season with a stress fracture in his back.
Led by new manager Pat Murphy, the Brewers began the 2024 campaign by sweeping three road games from the Mets and splitting a two-game home series with the Minnesota Twins. Yesterday, Milwaukee beat the Seattle Mariners, winning that series 2-1.
- Monday (6:40 pm)
- Tuesday (6:40 pm)
- Wednesday (6:40 pm)
- Thursday (1:10 pm)
Later in the week, the Reds then travel to Chicago’s south side for three games with the White Sox.
- Friday (7:40 pm)
- Saturday (2:10 pm)
- Sunday (2:40 pm)
Big Picture | The Reds are a Normal Team
The March 2024 Reds are not the March 2023 Reds. A year ago, with little proven power, Reds broadcasters and analysts were right to emphasize that David Bell’s club would need to play effective small ball to score runs. That jived with an innate bias many of us hold from our days playing Little League when our managers taught us to bunt and de-emphasized hitting home runs.
Today, the Reds have Jeimar Candelario, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand hitting in the middle of the lineup. Nick Martini is the DH. Beyond that core, the rest of the Reds don’t lack for power. Jonathan India, Will Benson, Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz are all threats to hit 15-20 home runs over a full season.
To put it plainly, the Reds are a normal team now. And that’s a good thing.
As of yesterday, the Reds ranked second in MLB for power hitting with a .198 ISO. Atlanta is first. The Reds have hit for more power than the Yankees, the Rangers, the Phillies, the Cardinals, the Dodgers and the Orioles. The Reds are third in line drives, second in pull-hitting and first in home runs per fly ball.
Yet, even though the team’s lineup and skills have changed, the media/broadcast narrative hasn’t. We’re still force fed the idea that this team depends on “speed and aggressiveness” on the bases to win games. One Reds beat writer’s characterization of the club read like a PR-guy’s fantasy: “next-gen Moneyball at warp speed” and “premier athleticism at nearly every position … making a premier impact in the game.” Without the slightest bit of backing.
Look, other things equal, you want players who are fast and athletic. But these other things aren’t equal. Unlike hitting for power or hitting line drives, speed and athleticism alone haven’t been proven to impact games. Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver said the keys to winning are “pitching, defense and three-run homers.” Not on his list: speedy guys and taking risks on the base paths.
Power hitting remains the currency of the realm Dating back to 1969, 74% of games have been won by the team that out-homers the other. That number rises to 78% in the postseason when pitching gets tougher and it’s harder to string together hits.
Yes, there are many ways to win games. The 2024 Reds have scored runs here and there because of their speed. But starting with Nick Martini’s home runs on Opening Day, followed by Steer’s decisive grand slam and three-run homer last week, this year’s Reds model has been winning by hitting for power.
“Speed and aggression” have too often led to outs. In overall base running, Statcast ranks the Reds 28 out of 30 at -1.1 runs above average. FanGraphs puts the Reds 17th, with -0.2 runs. Those are negative numbers — the opposite of a premier impact on the game.
So please, can we recognize that the Reds are a normal team, with the ability to hit line drives and for power? Can we dial back the genuflecting for “speed and aggressiveness?” The narrative is catnip for some, but has little evidence supporting it as a path to winning.
There may be a day when the Reds are Elly De La Cruz. They aren’t right now. If anything, the Reds are Spencer Steer — a combination of power and speed, winning more games with the former than the latter. That’s normal. Let’s be proud and say it.
Brewers | Position Players
The Brewers’ offense, much like the Reds’, has been a bit better than average. That’s an improvement for the Brewers who finished 24th in wRC+ in 2024. Here are the respective lineups vs right-handed pitching.
Stats through Saturday
Rhys Hoskins was the Brewers impact-bat signing this offseason, with the power-hitting first baseman inking a two-year, $34 million contract. Hoskins missed all of 2023 with the Phillies after tearing his ACL in spring training. In his six seasons, he’s averaged a wRC+ of 126 and 25 homers a year. Hoskins’ career ISO is .250. By comparison, Bryce Harper’s career ISO is .246. He also has a terrific walk rate (13.5%).
Former MVP Christian Yelich had somewhat of a bounce back season in 2023, posting a wRC+ of 122, with 19 homers and 28 stolen bases. He walked at a 12.3% rate.
Jackson Chourio (photo: Brewers X)
We get our first look at Brewers’ uber-prospect Jackson Chourio (yes, he turned 20 in March). Chourio, an outfielder, has been one of baseball’s best prospects the past year and a half. He’s ranked #2 by MLB Pipeline. The Brewers aren’t wasting any time with the young Venezualan. No service time games. In fact, they signed him to an 8-year, $82 million contract that runs through 2031. As a 19-year-old in AA last year, he showed an impressive speed/power combination, belting 22 homers while swiping 43 bases. Chourio was the fifth 20-40 teenager in the minors since 1958 and the first since Ronald Acuña Jr. did it in 2017. Chourio has already bombed two homers for Milwaukee.
Brewers | Pitchers
Aaron Ashby (25, LHP) will be making his first 2024 appearance for the Brewers. Ashby sat out almost all of 2023 after April shoulder labrum surgery, making a handful of 1-inning minor league appearances last September. In 2022, Ashby did make 19 starts (107 innings) for the Brewers. His 4+ ERA masked a nice 3.75 xERA and even better 3.29 xFIP. Ashby struck out 26% of the batters he faced, but also walked 10%. In 2022, he featured a 96-mph sinker that he threw a third of the time. But Ashby’s best pitch was a slider that he threw another third of his pitches. It flashed a 41% whiff rate. His third pitch is a changeup that he throws to right-handed batters. Ashby is scheduled to open the series for the Brewers.
You may remember Joe Ross (30, RHP) from when he was a budding superstar for the Washington Nationals in 2015-2016. Since then, his career has been sidelined by two Tommy John surgeries, the most recent in May 2022. He’s on a one-year, $1.75 million contract, which tells you plenty. Ross made his first major league start since 2021 for the Brewers last week. He threw 73 pitches over 3.2 innings. Ross walked five batters and allowed two hits but no earned runs. He struck out three. About half of Ross’ pitches were a 93.5 mph sinker and the other half slider. He didn’t show much whiff or chase. Due to pitch on Tuesday.
The Brewers haven’t named a starter for Wednesday.
Freddy Peralta
Don’t forget the way Freddy Peralta (27, RHP) finished the 2023 season for the Brewers. Over his last 11 starts (62.2 IP), he struck out 92 and walked only 11. His 2.44 ERA was bested by a 2.22 xFIP. Season-long, his xERA was 3.35 and xFIP 3.28. That’s an ace. Peralta has made two 2024 starts, picking up where he left off (1.45 xERA, 3.27 xFIP). Peralta throws a 94 mph four-seamer fastball for half his pitches (29% whiff). Beyond that, he gets right-handed batters out with his slider (46% whiff!) and lefties get his changeup. Peralta also throws an occasional curve. He’s scheduled to pitch Thursday.
While All-Star Devin Williams recovers from his back injury, closer duties for the Brewers have passed to Abner Uribe. The 23-year-old Uribe was part of the dominant back-end of the Brewers bullpen the second half of 2023. He was a way-high strikeout, way-high walk guy. Uribe throws two pitches, a sinker and slider. The sinker comes in at 99 mph, the power slider at 88 mph.
Lodolo Details | Ready to go?
Nick Lodolo made his second minor league start yesterday, throwing 64 pitches over 2.2 innings for the Louisville Bats. He gave up five hits, no walks and four runs. Lodolo struck out two batters. Of the 64 pitches, 29 were his four-seam fastball averaging 93.2 mph. That’s one mph below his average pitching for the Reds in 2022. Other than his fastball, Lodolo threw 20 curves, 12 changeups and three sinkers.
The plan announced by manager David Bell was for Lodolo to make the April 12 start on Friday in Chicago against the White Sox. We’ll see if the Reds stick with that plan or if they want Lodolo to get to a higher pitch count before his 2024 major league debut.
[Photos: Reds and Brewers Facebook]
