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It’s the best $65,000 Dick Williams has ever spent.
That’s what it cost to convince 16-year-old Elly Antonio De La Cruz of the Dominican Republic to sign as an international free agent with the Reds in 2018. With the photogenic De La Cruz’s picture everywhere now, it’s hard to remember the Elly fanfare didn’t start in earnest for another three years. He broke through in 2021 and became the #1 overall prospect in baseball in May of 2023, the first Reds player to reach that height since Jay Bruce in 2008. An injury to (former top-10 overall prospect) Nick Senzel prompted the Reds to call De La Cruz up June 6, 2023, which historians will recall as E-Day. You may remember Elly’s first series. He doubled, tripled and homered against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Elly enters the second half of the 2025 season with a 130 wRC+ and a .355 xwOBA (74th percentile). He’s in the top 80% of Statcast’s Batter Run Value. So the Reds shortstop is having a strong season at the plate. Another strong season. Comparing Elly’s seasons is easy because luck — good or bad — hasn’t entered into the equation much. His BABIP of .340-.350 has been consistent. Yes, that’s high but what you would expect with a guy who has that much speed and hits it that hard. For a bit of context, Joey Votto put up a .352 BABIP over his first 12 seasons.
Elly continues to mash. His average exit velocity (91.5 mph, top 80%) and hard-hit rate (46.7%, top 71%) have stayed steady over his three seasons. His ISO (.211) is the same as last year. Elly’s bat speed has dropped a little each year, but is still in the top 86%.
While much of his performance over three seasons has been consistent, there are a few interesting nuances to mention. Elly is hitting more singles this year. His xBA has risen from .240 in 2024 to .271. Adding that with his gradual improvement in walk-rate, explains a decent chunk of his steady increase in xwOBA from .303 to .328 to .355 this year. Elly has also cut his strikeout rate from the low 30% to 24% this season, although much of that has come in the last two months. He still has a high ground ball rate of 54% compared to league average of 42%. He’s still a pull hitter (44% compared to league average of 41%). Elly has a large handedness split (67/132 vs. L/R) that hasn’t gotten better.
Elly’s base running value remains in the top 100% even though his sprint speed has fallen a little both in absolute and relative terms. His stolen base success rate of 81% has stayed steady and above average although his attempts are down. He’s attempted 5% of his opportunities compared to 8.7% last season. By far his largest base running value comes in taking extra bases, which he’s done 76% of the time compared to a league norm of 42%. He has not been thrown out on the bases in 2025 after falling victim five times last year.
Elly’s Statcast Fielding Run Value is -2 that’s in the bottom 31%. After a 2024 season where his defensive metrics were all over the place, from big positive to big negative, so far in 2025 every system seems to be in agreement that overall he’s been slightly below average. Errors are not the bottom line in measuring defense. Range and arm strength are also factors. But errors aren’t nothing. In 2024 Elly led the league in errors with 29 (next highest was 25). This year, he’s one off the lead with 12. That’s on pace for 20, which would be a notable reduction from last year, even though he has the same fielding percentage. His success rate of 76% is about the same as last year’s. For what it’s worth (nothing), Elly played third base for the first two months of his debut season and had strong positive defensive metrics.
What to expect in the second half? Every impact hitter has ups and downs during a season. Elly will have his, too. But considering that Elly De La Cruz is still only 23 years old, his offensive performance has been strong, steady and yes, getting better. For positives, you can point to the declining strikeout rate. He’s swinging at more pitches in the zone and chasing (a little) fewer. His overall contact rate is up — more singles without cutting into his power stats. It hasn’t been night-and-day, but Elly’s approach is improving. Absent injury, speed doesn’t slump and he should continue to provide huge value there. Even though he’s outhitting a few of the elite SS above him (Lindor, Turner), he won’t compile the WAR they do until he fixes the defensive side.
