RC+ Recap: Reds fall inches short vs. Nationals

Football is often referred to as a game of inches. Tonight showed baseball can stake a claim to that moniker as well.

With the Reds down 7-5 to the Nationals in the top of the ninth inning, Joey Votto stepped to the plate with two outs and a runner on first base. He battled through a nine-pitch at-bat against Washington closer Sean Doolittle before belting a line drive deep to left field in vintage Votto fashion. The ball kept carrying and carrying — for a moment, it had the look of one of the biggest hits of the year. But the ball ultimately hit the top of the wall, and Votto had to settle for a 375-foot RBI double.

Conversely, the Nationals’ Matt Adams hit a two-run home run in the first inning that cleared the center-field wall by no more than a foot. Trea Turner hit a dagger of a three-run home run that left the bat at just 92.9 mph — not even enough to constitute hard contact, according to Statcast’s definition — and had a .050 xBA in the fourth inning.

A game of inches.

Back to the ninth inning: The Nationals intentionally walked Eugenio Suarez, and Josh VanMeter popped out to end the game.

Let’s not discount the effort the Reds put in to get back in the game. Aristides Aquino hit a 106-mph, 425-foot, opposite-field blast in the eighth inning to pull his team within three runs. Aquino is the first player in MLB history to hit eight home runs in his first 12 career games, by the way. Phillip Ervin crushed the first pitch he saw from Doolittle in the ninth for a 108-mph, 421-foot solo shot.

But the Reds had a lot of ugly moments tonight as well. Votto was thrown out at home with only one out in the first inning — a huge mistake by third-base coach J.R. House. The Reds scored only two runs against a rookie pitcher, Erick Fedde, with a FIP, xFIP, and SIERA above 5.00. Jose Peraza struck out on a pitch in the dirt with a runner on third base and one out in the seventh inning.

Anthony DeSclafani’s night on the mound may have been the toughest pill to swallow. On paper, the Reds had the advantage in tonight’s pitching matchup against the Nationals. But DeSclafani turned in his third straight clunker, allowing six runs in four innings. Each Washington tally came in brutal fashion: with two outs. There was some bad luck involved, to be sure (see the Turner home run).

Ultimately, though, Disco made too many mistakes. The events leading up to the back-breaking Turner homer stand out. With two outs, he gave up back-to-back singles to Victor Robles, the No. 8 hitter with an 87 wRC+, and Fedde, a career 2-for-32 hitter. The sequence was the largest momentum swing of the game; it cut the Reds’ win probability from 35.9% to 9.7%.

It still beats watching the Bengals, though, right?

Reds Most Valuable Players

  • Jose Iglesias: .282 WPA (Win Probability Added) | 3-for-4, 2B, 3B, RBI
  • Joey Votto: .158 WPA | 2-for-3, 2B, RBI, 2 BB
  • Jesse Winker: .042 WPA | 1-for-4, HR

Reds Least Valuable Players

  • Anthony DeSclafani: -.379 WPA | 4 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Josh VanMeter: -.209 WPA | 2-for-5, K
  • Jose Peraza: -.092 WPA | 0-for-2, K

Play of the Game

  • Jose Iglesias: .112 WPA | RBI double in 2nd inning to cut the Nationals lead to 3-2

Hardest-Hit Balls

  • Phillip Ervin: 107.8 mph home run in 9th inning
  • Jesse Winker: 106.7 mph lineout in 5th inning
  • Joey Votto: 105.9 mph single in 3rd inning
  • Aristides Aquino: 105.8 mph home run in 8th inning

Luckiest Hit of the Day

  • Josh VanMeter.290 xBA, 102.7 mph, -7° LA; Single

Unluckiest Out of the Day

  • Jesse Winker: .670 xBA, 106.7 mph, 17° LA; Lineout

Highest Pitch Velocities by Pitcher

  • Anthony DeSclafani: 96.9 mph two-seam fastball
  • Kevin Gausman: 95.1 mph four-seam fastball
  • Jared Hughes: 93.6 mph four-seam fastball

Links

Matt Wilkes

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.