RC+ Preview: Spoiling the Cardinals Season

The Reds limp home from the Collapse in the Capital for a 7-game home stand starting with four games against the St. Louis Cardinals. Three games with the San Diego Padres follow.

The Reds (56-63) and Cardinals (63-55) have been headed in opposite directions in recent days. St. Louis sits atop of the NL Central, tied with the Cubs. They arrive to GABP riding a 5-game winning  (which followed a 5-game losing skid). The key factor in the two streaks was strength of competition. The Cards victories came against Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They are 19-11 since the All-Star break. The Reds are 15-17. St. Louis holds a 7-4 edge on the Reds this year. The two teams play four more times in St. Louis in the next couple weeks.

Obligatory fan service: If the Reds have any hope at re-entering the chase for playing in the postseason, it must begin by beating the Cardinals.

Reality: The Reds can spoil the Cardinals chances for the postseason.

Roster Moves

The Reds put Jared Hughes on waivers — that means if another team selects him, that team takes over the rest of his 2019 salary. The Phillies, who are in a heated race for the NL Wild Card, did just that. The Reds also optioned Sal Romano to Louisville. Romano faced 10 batters yesterday, giving up 6 hits and two walks. His demotion might just be the Reds cycling fresh arms to the bullpen. Or maybe Romano has been Clemenza’d.

Matt Bowman (28-RH) was with the Reds earlier this year, making 18 relief appearances. His ERA (4.58), FIP (4.39), xFIP (4.89) and SIERA (4.92) are all pretty close to league average. The luck-neutralized stats show him a little worse than average.

Joel Kuhnel [KOON-uhl] (24-RH) makes his major league debut. He was drafted in the 11th round in 2016 by the Reds from the University of Texas at Arlington. Kuhnel has made 41 relief appearances split between AA and AAA this year.

Pitching Matchup

It’s hard to say enough good things about the season that Sonny Gray is putting together. He’s one of the top 20 starters in the major leagues based on K%, FIP, xFIP and xwOBA. If you must look at ERA, he’s ranked #13. He’s coming off shutout performances against two first-place teams, the Cubs and the Braves. Gray struck out 14 in 13 innings in those two games. He’s faced the Cardinals once this year, back in April when he pitched 5 innings and gave up 2 runs on 3 hits.

There was a time when Michael Wacha was a Reds slayer. That was a half-decade ago as a young starting pitcher. More recently, Wacha has bounced back and forth between the Cardinals rotation and bullpen. He’s made two relief appearances against the Reds this year, throwing a combined four shutout innings. Wacha throws four pitches: fastball (50%), cutter (17%), changeup (21%) and curveball (12%). The changeup has been his best pitch. 

Reds Lineup and Stats

Wacha is a RHP, but no Jesse Winker or Josh VanMeter. The Reds face four righty starters against St. Louis, so this is probably David Bell getting playing time for everyone. Phillip Ervin starts in LF. Nick Senzel is leading off and back in CF after a game off. Superman is playing RF. Freddie Galvis is playing 2B. Sure looks like Galvis’s playing time is going to come primarily at the expense of Jose Peraza, but we’ll have to wait and see more.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Cardinals Lineup

The Cardinals lineup is strong. Matt Carpenter, Marcel Ozuna and Yadi Molina are back for the Cardinals. All three missed recent series against the Reds. Paul Goldschmidt (31) has started to hit like Paul Goldschmidt.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.