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Welcome to Red Monday. It’s a place where Reds fans can start their week. Stop in and you’ll find clear-eyed analysis of how the Reds are doing and where they’re headed. Only three games into the season, it’s early to draw conclusions. We’ll get more stat-heavy as the season progresses and sample sizes become meaningful.
The Weekend That Was
The first series of the 2023 season went about as you would expect. Two teams predicted to lose 90+ were evenly matched. The Reds had two advantages: playing at home and three stud starters going. With a 2-1 record, David Bell’s club shares first place in the NL Central with the Brewers and Cardinals. After the upcoming Cubs series, the competition goes up in class with the next thirteen games against the Phillies, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
Large Ball
Let’s talk about “small ball.”
It’s an old baseball concept referring to scoring runs by stringing together base hits and taking the occasional extra base. Small ball is posed in contrast with hitting for power. People who broadcast and report on the Reds have been eager to make the point the team will need to rely on small ball more this year. That’s right. This roster isn’t projected to hit with much power.
But be clear about one thing. The notion the Reds front office “designed” the team for small ball after “embracing” the league’s rule changes is where the narrative jumps the track. Hitting for power — among few other skills, like getting on base and playing tight defense — wins games. Players who are good at hitting for power command more salary in the market. The ones great at it, the players you’ll find on the teams at the top of the standings, are expensive.
Severe payroll cuts from Reds ownership have made it impossible for the front office to keep or acquire power hitters. In fact, there wasn’t enough uncommitted money to design anything. The 2023 Reds are largely left over from 2022. A couple young men in the prospect pipeline may change that. But for now, the Reds are who they are by default, not because of a genius masterplan.
And look here! Small ball champions took a backseat this weekend. The Reds won with pitching and large ball. Three home runs accounted for all six runs in Saturday’s win. Two of the three runs yesterday were via solo homers. Even in the loss Thursday, the Reds scored on a homer, two-run triple and hitting into a double play. The Reds attempted just two stolen bases — a successful one by Jonathan India in the loss and a caught-stealing by Stuart Fairchild.
Small ball and large ball aren’t either-or. The best teams can do both. Designing a team? Take three-run homers every time.
Tale of Two Bullpens
In Thursday’s loss to the Pirates, the Reds bullpen needed to cover 5.2 innings. Five relievers combined for six walks. Fernando Cruz walked the first three batters he faced, forcing in two Pirate runs. Then he threw a wild pitch that cost another. Pittsburgh added their fifth run in the 8th inning when a leadoff walk allowed by Buck Farmer came around to score on a sacrifice fly. In total, bullpen walks played a significant role in four of the Pirates five runs in their 5-4 Opening Day win.
The contrast was notable Saturday, when David Bell called on his relief corps for four innings. Ian Gibaut, Buck Farmer, Reiver Sanmartin and Alexis Diaz didn’t allow a walk or hit. The Reds won 6-2. Likewise, the bullpen was terrific Sunday, covering the final two innings. Alex Young gave up a couple hits, but both were balls that should have been fielded into outs. Derek Law and Alexis Diaz recorded the final five outs.
Vosler Supremacy
The Reds signed free agent Jason Vosler on February 1. The San Francisco Giants had non-tendered the 29-year-old infielder. As spring training position battles unfolded, Vosler wasn’t at the forefront until the last couple days. Given what had developed with other players — Chad Pinder’s bust and Nick Senzel’s timetable — Vosler ended up making the team and it wasn’t a huge shock.
But David Bell penciling Vosler into the starting lineup and fifth spot in the batting order on Opening Day (and again yesterday) generated more than a few skeptics. By the numbers, Bell’s decision wasn’t that puzzling. Vosler is left-handed so he started against the two right-handed Pirates starters. He has a 105 wRC+ and .204 ISO (isolated power) in 177 major league plate the past two seasons in appearances against RHP. In the context of this Reds roster, those stats point to a solid contributor on that side of the plate.
Vosler vindicated Bell’s choice by going 1-for-4 with a two-run double on Thursday and hitting a home run and double in the series finale.
It’s a two-game sample. But Jason Vosler’s early success may complicate Nick Krall’s decision when Joey Votto is ready to return to the active roster. That may be as early as Thursday in Philadelphia. On the one hand, Votto is an infielder which points to sending an infielder down. That would be Vosler, who has an option remaining.
But here’s the rub. Until Nick Senzel is ready — maybe another week away — Vosler remains the only bench player with experience at third base to back up Spencer Steer. Moreover, Vosler has been miles better than Will Benson at the plate. Benson, who hits left-handed, has looked overmatched, with six strikeouts in eight at bats. And that’s against the Pirates pitching.
When Votto returns, Krall could send Benson down instead of Vosler. Benson has all three options left. That would leave the Reds with four outfielders. Will Krall make a decision on the merits? Or will he be reluctant to call into question his trade with Cleveland where he gave up two second-round draft picks for Benson? Let’s hope Benson breaks out this week to further complicate the decision.
109 Pitches
On Saturday, starting pitcher Nick Lodolo worked his way through five innings. That had seemed improbable after the 25-year-old left-hander needed 35 pitches for the first. Manager David Bell allowed him to throw 109 pitches, a career high for Lodolo. The Damien High School product is no stranger to the century mark for pitch counts. Lodolo had thrown over 100 pitches in six of his 19 starts last year, including four appearances in a row toward the end of the season. In four other games he’d reached 98 or 99 pitches.
What was noteworthy about the 109 pitch total was it coming in Lodolo’s first start of the season. No other pitcher in the season’s first four days was allowed to throw even 100. So Nick Lodolo’s total stood out, like a sore shoulder elbow forearm back thumb.
Manager David Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson have to balance a number of considerations in deciding how long to let Lodolo go. The pitcher’s health is the most important concern, of course, but there are others. Would getting through five innings boost the young pitcher’s morale? Facing six games in six days, including starts from Connor Overton and Luis Cessa, was it important to minimize bullpen usage? Was leaving Lodolo in to face fellow lefty Oneil Cruz in the 5th a goal?
I trust Bell and Johnson to know what is right for Nick Lodolo and the other pitchers on the Reds staff. Judging from the results of Saturday’s game, Bell’s management of his pitching staff was successful. Lodolo’s next start figures to come Thursday afternoon in Philly. Let’s keep an eye on the pitch count and Lodolo’s performance in the City of Brotherly Love.
CSW
CSW is a new pitching metric devised by Alex Fast and the guys at Pitcher List. It stands for “called strikes plus whiffs” and the formula is simple:
Called Strikes + Whiffs / total pitches
Baseball Savant picked up CSW and includes it in “player breakdown” information for each game. CSW is a refinement of two other stats: Swinging Strikes and Whiffs. Swinging Strikes (SwStr%) measures the percentage of times a batter swings and misses out of the total number of pitches seen. Whiffs is the percentage of swing and miss out of total swings. Both measure pitcher dominance. CSW adds the idea of called strikes.
You may wonder what a good CSW is. Here’s the scale they came up with for starting pitchers based on a few years of data.
What’s notable: CSW is a good predictor of where the pitcher is heading. In a given game, a starter’s CSW may not be an accurate indication of how well he pitched. A pitcher can have a good CSW in one start and give up a lot of hard contact. But a high CSW is a sign the pitcher will have better starts in the future.
Anyhow, here are CSW numbers for Reds starters in the first series.
Hunter Greene
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- 2022 average: 29%
- March 30: 26%
Green’s fastball and slider each checked in right around 25-26%.
Nick Lodolo
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- 2022 average: 30%
- April 1: 39%
Lodolo was the #2 starting pitcher in CSW on Saturday, behind only future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw.
Graham Ashcraft
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- 2022 average: 23%
- April 2: 26%
Keep in mind this is a sample size of one and not yet meaningful. Just wanted to introduce the stat. We’ll come back to CSW as the year goes on.
In Case You Missed It
Matt McLain’s 422-foot homer in his first game at Triple-A. I’m excited to see this guy play for the Reds. He’s part of the huge SS/3B logjam Nick Krall created and has to sort out.
Incoming This Week
- Three-game home series against the Cubs (6:40, 6:40, 12:35)
- Three-game away series against the Phillies (3:05, 4:05, 1:05)
- Off day on Friday
Featured image: https://www.facebook.com/Reds/photos/pcb.10161379747948760/10161379735993760
