New blood: How productive have the Reds rookies been in 2019?

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As we head into the final weeks of the 2019 season, several new faces are getting significant playing time and consideration for starting jobs with the Reds both this year and next. Of these younger players, four are currently in their rookie season. Nick Senzel is an obvious newcomer with a starting job for years to come. He is joined by Kyle Farmer, Josh VanMeter and overnight phenom Aristedes Aquino. Juan Graterol and Brian O’Grady saw action earlier this year, but the first four players have been the major rookie contributors.

Below is a look at the production (WAR and wRC+) the Reds have received from rookie position players since 2003.

WAR is cumulative and could creep up a bit more by season’s end, but the trend the past two years is positive. In terms of wRC+, this could end up being the most productive group of rookies since 1990. While Aquino’s blistering bat lately has given those numbers a boost, each has shown potential and could be a part of next year’s squad. That alone is an improvement over recent one-and-done names like Ramon Cabrera, Tyler Holt, Steve Selsky, Stuart Turner and Tony Renda.

Nick Senzel

Senzel has not put up Rookie of the Year type numbers that some expected but he has been consistent relative to other Reds hitters. One area Senzel has excelled is the amount of well hit balls. He has 48 batted balls over 100 mph exit velocity in just 80 games. He also has 18 barrels, which aside from Aristedes Aquino, gives him the best game/barreled ball ratio (4.4) of any Reds rookie since 2015. Comparing him to MLB average, his barrel rate (7.9%) and hard-hit rate (39.1%) are both above average. This is resulting in an above average xwOBACON, (0.381) despite an average xwOBA (0.318). [xwOBACON measures expected OBA when contact is made by the batter, so it excludes the impact of walks and strikeouts.]

One reason for this disconnect is his plate discipline. Senzel’s strikeout rate and walk rate are below average and worse than his numbers in the minors. His career OBP in the minors was 0.388 but he is currently sitting at 0.332 for the Reds this year. Again, still above average, but lower than expected given his lofty prospect rankings. That said, his centerfield defense seems to pass the eye test with flying colors, and there is still time for him to develop and improve at the plate.

Kyle Farmer

Farmer was acquired from the Dodgers in the offseason blockbuster that also netted Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. He has made a big impression in 2019 with his versatile defense, including taking over catcher and fighting through a concussion with both Barnhart and Casali on the IL. And while he got off to a quick start at the plate this year, he has come back down to reality a bit.

Farmer posted a career 0.787 OPS in the minors but struggled in his first two cups of coffee with the Dodgers in 2017 and 2018. With a 0.720 OPS so far in 2019, there is reason to believe he has some room to improve at the plate. However, his peripheral numbers are pointing in the other direction. For starters, his 3.4% walk rate and 30.6% strikeout rate are both well below average, along with his average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. While it could be an issue caused by a lack of consistent playing time, his contact has gotten worse over the course of the year. Farmer’s current ISO of 0.188 is the only above average stat he has going for him. So while a utility defender with power coming off the bench is enticing, the Reds will be hoping for a bit more consistent offense in 2020.

Aristedes Aqunio

Aquino has cemented himself into the record books with an incredible start to his major league career. After being non-tendered in December and re-signing with the Reds as a minor league free agent, Aquino made major changes to his plate approach in spring training that have paid dividends, which his current 0.337 ISO can attest to.

Aquino’s plate discipline is somewhat of a concern giving how free-swinging he has been throughout his career. So far though, his walk rate and strikeout rates are not too far off league average, and he has more than made up for it with his immense power, which is a trade-off teams are more than willing to make these days. His contact has been incredible as 25% of his batted balls have been barrels, the best possible quality of contact. He has has had pretty good plate coverage other than on the inside part of the zone.

While Aquino’s numbers will no-doubt fall back to earch, the question going forward will be if he can make the necessary adjustments once pitchers start adjusting to him. If he can maintain decent plate discipline, not chase too much junk down and away and keep his elite power when he does make contact, it is certainly possible that the Reds have stumbled upon a full-time player and potential key contributor.

Josh VanMeter

VanMeter entered 2019 without an invite to spring training and without any real prospect status. He responded by crushing baseballs in Louisville and posting a 174 wRC+, by far the best of his career. And while his call up to the Reds may have been unexpected, VanMeter has put himself strongly in the mix for a future middle infield/corner outfield/utility spot.

VanMeter’s power hasn’t played quite as well in the majors but his strong plate disciple has helped drive above average production. His contact stats are all good except for his barrel rate (2.4%) which is the lowest among the four Reds rookies. After a slow start though, VanMeter has been hitting the ball hard for the better part of two months.

In terms of platoon splits, VanMeter has hit right-handers better but has not been terrible against left-handers. Given his youth, impressive adjustments he made to get himself to the majors, and his strong play since he has been up, VanMeter appears to be a strong candidate to keep getting regular starts. With the recent addition of Freddy Galvis, all eyes are on David Bell to see how creative he can get with the lineups to get playing time for VanMeter and the rest of this promising group of rookies.

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