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Overshadowed a bit by Elly De La Cruz’s long-awaited debut last night, left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott had a game to remember in his first MLB start on Monday.
After posting a 2.50 ERA and 3.11 FIP across Double-A and Triple-A this season, the 24-year-old got his call to the big leagues when Hunter Greene’s scheduled start was pushed back. Abbott proceeded to fire six scoreless innings and allowed only one hit against the Brewers. He struck out six and walked four. According to OptaSTATS, Abbott became the only left-hander in baseball’s modern era (since 1901) to throw six or more shutout innings, strike out six or more batters, and allow no more than one hit in an MLB debut. Abbott was only the second Reds pitcher to fire six or more innings and allow no more than one hit, joining Johnny Cueto in 2008.
Abbott seemingly dealt with nerves early in the outing, walking three batters and needing 53 pitches to get through his first two innings. After his third walk, which came with no outs in the second inning, Abbott retired the next 10 batters before giving up his first hit in the fifth inning. The lefty got himself into trouble by walking the leadoff batter in the sixth inning, but he battled back to strike out the next two hitters and get a flyout from Christian Yelich on his 105th pitch — the first time Abbott had topped the century mark in a professional game.
While we certainly can’t make any sweeping conclusions about Abbott from one MLB start, we learned a bit more about him. With more detailed pitch data now available on the young southpaw, let’s take a look at the stuff he showed during his debut.
The Fastball
Abbott featured his four-seam fastball heavily in his debut (61.0% of his pitches), higher than his usage this season in seven Triple-A starts (51.9%). The pitch averaged 92.9 mph — exactly where he sat in Triple-A — and maxed out at 95.3 mph, although his velocity declined steadily throughout his start.
This isn’t particularly surprising. His velocity was highest in the first two innings, when his adrenaline was probably at its peak for his first MLB start. It leveled out thereafter, sitting around 91-92 mph the rest of the outing, although he dialed it back up to 93 against his last two batters of the night. It’s also worth noting that Abbott had yet to push past the 100-pitch mark as a professional. He threw more than 90 pitches in only four of 25 starts in 2022 and four of 10 minor-league starts in 2023.
The Brewers had seven whiffs on 33 swings against Abbott’s fastball. That 21.2% whiff rate is roughly in line with the MLB average for a four-seam fastball (22.1%). Most of the whiffs on his heater came up in the zone.
A word you’ll commonly encounter in scouting reports about Abbott’s fastball is “carry.” That is, his four-seamer has the illusion of rising as it approaches the batter, which can elicit swings and misses under the ball when thrown up in the zone. In Triple-A, Abbott’s fastball had an outstanding 30.6% whiff rate.
Indeed, Abbott threw a lot of his heaters up in the zone:
Carry (also called “rise” or “induced vertical break”) is often associated with four-seamers that have high spin rates and/or high spin efficiencies. A four-seamer with a low, flat vertical approach angle (the angle at which a pitch approaches home plate) can also get swings and misses up in the zone. A flatter vertical approach angle can better counter a batter’s typical uppercut swing, especially the higher a fastball is thrown.
How does Abbott fare in these categories?
Abbott’s fastball spin rate was a bit higher in his MLB debut (2,256 rpm) than in Triple-A (2,193), but it still ranks in just the 50th percentile. His spin efficiency — which measures the percentage of spin that contributes to movement — was 94% on Monday. That’s roughly in the 65th percentile among all big-league pitchers, above average but not spectacular. The best four-seamers in the league can get close to 100%, which means they’re getting pure backspin and usually dropping less than the average fastball.
Abbott’s fastball had an average vertical approach angle of -4.6 degrees, compared to a league average of -4.9 degrees for left-handed pitchers. The closer to zero, the flatter the fastball and the more whiffs a pitch can get.
Another factor that helps Abbott is that he gets a lot of extension. Although he isn’t particularly tall (6-foot-0), Abbott strides close to the plate when he releases the ball compared to the average pitcher. After one MLB start, he ranks in the 78th percentile in extension. This can provide further deception because a hitter has less time to react to a pitch. It’s part of what makes Alexis Díaz’s fastball so tough to hit. With 6.8 feet of extension on average, the perceived velocity on Abbott’s fastball was 93.7 mph — 0.8 mph faster than the actual reading.
Although Abbott doesn’t have elite extension, spin efficiency, or vertical approach angle, being above average in all three categories may help explain why he’s gotten strong results on his fastball in the minor leagues despite middling velocity and spin. With all three components in the mix, Abbott’s fastball got 16.8 inches of induced vertical break on Monday — an inch above league average for lefty pitchers (15.8).
Below is what it looks like in practice. This fastball had the highest induced vertical break in Abbott’s outing (21 inches), and it resulted in a big swing and miss from Yelich for the second out in the sixth inning.
Getting swings and misses with the fastball is a big reason Abbott piled up gaudy strikeout totals in the minor leagues. Will these components result in an above-average fastball whiff rate at the major-league level? It remains to be seen, and we can’t read too much into one start. But he seems to have some deceptive ingredients to get swings and misses with his heater in the big leagues.
The Secondary Pitches
Abbott featured three secondary pitches in his MLB debut: a curveball (21.0% usage), sweeper (9.5%), and changeup (8.6%).
The curveball averaged 79.6 mph with a spin rate (2,817 rpm) that would rank in approximately the 90th percentile if he had enough pitches to qualify. It features less drop (-4.9 inches below average) and more sweeping action (2.5 inches above average) than the typical MLB curveball.
Abbott uses the pitch to get called strikes more than whiffs, often disguising it as a high fastball before it drops or sweeps into the strike zone. In Triple-A, Abbott threw his curveball in the strike zone more than any other pitch. It also had the lowest whiff rate of any pitch in his arsenal. During his debut, that held true. Abbott got only one whiff on nine swings against his curveball, but he picked up eight called strikes. His 39.1% called strikes plus whiff rate (CSW%) with the curveball was well above league average (30.9%) this year.
Here’s Abbott dotting the top of the zone with his curveball for a called strike against William Contreras:
Later in the at-bat, Abbott caught Contreras looking for strike three on another curve:
Statcast didn’t distinguish a sweeper/slider from a curveball during Abbott’s time in Triple-A. Scouting reports are also mixed on whether he throws three or four pitches. FanGraphs specifically notes there’s been confusion about whether Abbott throws one or two breaking balls, while MLB Pipeline says his slider became a distinct pitch from the curveball in 2022. The Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith reported that Abbott is throwing two breaking pitches, so it seems Statcast now has it correct.
Abbott threw his sweeper only nine times on Monday, with just four going for strikes (all foul balls). Compared to the curveball, his sweeper is about 3 mph faster (82.1 mph). It gets around 10 fewer inches of vertical movement than the curve and three more inches of horizontal break, which you can see below:
Abbott didn’t feature his changeup as much as he did in Triple-A (16.9% usage), throwing it only nine times in his debut. He typically throws it against right-handed batters because it moves away from them, whereas his breaking pitches move toward them. All nine changeups he threw on Monday were against right-handed hitters, getting two whiffs on three swings. The changeup was his best swing-and-miss pitch in limited Triple-A action this season (38.5% whiff rate) and some scouting reports note that he needs to throw it more.
Final Thoughts
With a collective 71 wRC+, the Brewers are the second-worst team against left-handed pitchers in baseball this season. So, it’s important not to get too carried away about Abbott’s first career start. But there was certainly plenty to like.
Once he settled down from some initial jitters, Abbott largely threw strikes and challenged hitters. Most of the hard contact he gave up resulted in routine flyouts because hitters got under the ball, which is why his xBA (.151) and xwOBA (.259) were both fantastic. Thanks to his deception, his fastball-curve combo looks like it can play at the big-league level even with raw stuff that doesn’t jump off the page. His relatively new sweeper should keep hitters from being able to sit on the curveball, and his changeup can give right-handed batters a different look if he commits to mixing it in a bit more.
It remains to be seen if Abbott can continue to register whiffs and strikeouts the way he did in the minor leagues. Determining an answer to that question will take time and could ultimately determine whether his ceiling is higher than that of a #4 starter. But with four average to above-average pitches, it certainly looks as though Abbott has a strong chance of being in the Reds’ rotation moving forward.
Featured image by Minda Haas Kuhlmann
