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The Reds left St. Louis last night for Kansas City, a town known for soulful jazz, majestic fountains and delicious barbecue. It’s also home to a certain NFL team. Maybe the Bengals, who visited GABP last week for batting practice, passed advice to the Reds about winning in that neighborhood. Kauffman Stadium and Arrowhead Stadium sit 500 feet apart.
David Bell’s club are in Walt Disney’s hometown to play the Kansas City Royals. The Royals (18-47) once again find themselves in a familiar spot — last place. Scoreboard watching for Royals fans means keeping up with the Oakland A’s (17-50) for who has the worst record in MLB.
The distance between St. Louis and Kansas City may only be 240 miles, but the records of each city’s professional baseball teams could hardly be more divergent. Over the past 25 seasons, the Cardinals have won 450 games more than the Royals. They have won 55% of their games compared to 44% for the Royals. The Cardinals have reached the postseason 16 times over that stretch, the Royals twice. [I know you’re wondering. The Reds have a 47% winning percentage and have made the postseason three times in 25 seasons.]
The Royals’ have finished higher than third in their division only twice in the past quarter-century. Remember 2014 when they snuck into the World Series and then the next season when they won? That’s it. That’s the full list of Royals appearances in the postseason since the Reagan Administration. While abbreviated, that success lasted long enough to catch the eye of a new, inexperienced Reds front office who lifted heaven and earth to acquire Jose Peraza. So smitten by those Royals teams were the Reds, they are paying Mike Moustakas $18 million this year to play for the Colorado Rockies.
But back to the Royals futility, since 1996 every Royals season but two has ended in third place or worse.
The three-game series starts tonight.
- Monday (8:10 pm)
- Tuesday (8:10 pm)
- Wednesday (8:10 pm)
The Reds haven’t played the Royals much in David Bell’s tenure back through 2019. The two teams split four games during the COVID season of 2020 and the Reds won two of three in Kansas City in 2021.
Position Players
The comparison between the Royals and Reds on offense demonstrates the role of luck. Without adjusting for luck on balls in play (scorebook outcome), the Royals rank 28th in offense (wRC+) and the Reds are 23rd. But when you look at quality of contact (xwOBA) instead of scorebook outcome, the Reds fall to 28th and the Royals jump to 19th. The Royals have been one of the most unlucky teams and the Reds among the luckiest.
The Royals rank 29th in walks while the Reds are 5th. The Royals are 20th in power (ISO) compared to the Reds at 26th.
These Royals are young, young, young. As young, or younger, than the Reds. This chart lets you compare the lineups of the two teams.
Super-prospect Bobby Witt Jr. has hit 10 home runs and stolen 20 bases, but has had trouble hitting for average and drawing walks. His weighted run production is about 20% below average. His batting line is similar to 2022 over 600+ plate appearances. But he turns only 23 on Wednesday. Vinnie Pasquantino is another young slugger, but he went on the IL (shoulder) Saturday. 24-year-old Nick Pratto didn’t get off the ground in 2022 and still has a high strikeout rate. But when he’s made contact, Pratto has driven it. Veteran catcher Sal Perez is still mashing homers and swinging at everything (49% O-Swing%).
Starting Pitcher Matchups
Like the Reds, the Royals rotation ranks in the bottom 10 in pitching metrics except for walks where they’re in the middle of the pack. 26-year-old Brady Singer had a breakthrough 2022 season but hasn’t followed up that success so far in 2023. The Reds miss him in this series.
The veteran Greinke is back with the organization that drafted and developed him. He debuted for the Royals in 2004 and spent seven seasons in a Kansas City uniform, including 2009 for his only Cy Young Award. After pitching for five other teams, he returned to the Royals in 2022. Greinke’s last great season was 2019 pitching for the Diamondbacks and Houston. He’s faced the Reds six times, most recently in 2017.
Jordan Lyles is pitching in his 13th major league season and the Royals are his eighth team. Lyles has done short stints in the NL Central with Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. This will be his ninth start against the Reds, with 2019 being his most recent. Lyles throws six pitches, including a 91-mph fastball, a sweeper, a curve and a sinker.
Daniel Lynch was a first round compensation pick by the Royals in 2018. He debuted in 2021 and has made 42 starts between that season and 2022. The 26-year-old lefty began 2023 on the IL with a rotator cuff strain. This will be his fourth start of the season. Lynch has been a bottom-10% pitcher so far in his career, with low xERA and super-high average exit velocity. His four 2023 starts have shown improvement in those areas. Lynch is mainly a fastball (93 mph), slider, changeup pitcher.
Bullpen
If you look past the awful ERA, the Royals bullpen ranks middle-of-the-pack in fielding-independent metrics. Defensive metrics are wildly split on them as a team. DRS has them at -19, one of the worst in the league, while Statcast puts the Royals second-best in the league at 12 Outs Above Average.
Scott Barlow is the Royals closer, a role he’s held down for most of two years. Former Red Aroldis Chapman, now 35 years old, is having a terrific season and almost certainly will be prime trade bait for thee Royals at the deadline. After six seasons in New York pinstripes, Chapman is pitching for the Royals for the first time. Yes, he still throws a 100-mph fastball about two-thirds of his pitches. Note: The Cuban Missile isn’t the only big arm in the Kansas City bullpen.
Conclusion
The series with the Royals gives the Reds a prime opportunity to put two or three more wins in the record book. The Royals are one of the two worst teams in baseball and headed in the wrong direction. After this series, the Reds face the Astros, Atlanta, Orioles and Padres.
Featured image: Dodgers Facebook
I’m concerned about this series. For one thing, it’s a “trap” series, between series with the Cardinal and the Astros. I’m not too concerned about that, as the Reds play with energy these days. But I’m very concerned about the starting rotation. The Reds have only two decent starters and neither is pitching in this series. All three starting pitcher matchups arguably favor the Royals. If Greinke wins Game 1, the Reds are already in trouble wrt winning a series they’re supposed to win.
I know Reds fans don’t want to hear any more complaints about last year’s trades, espeecially with the youth movement going so well. But De La cruz, McClain, and Abottt were already in the Reds system. You just don’t trade all of your top 3 starting pitchers unless you’re counting on being terrible the next season, and compared to the rest of the division, the Reds are far from terrible.
I was fine with the aggressive rebuild and with trading Castillo (for such a bountiful return) and Mahler. The trade I objected to was Sonny Gray, when his value was low due to injuries. The return was a minor league pitcher with shoulder problems. Gray is currently an AL Cy Young candidate and that’s not so shocking, we saw how well he pitched for the Reds when he was healthy.
The current Reds rotation with Gray would be so much better.
I’m 100% with you. I wonder if they would have made the Gray trade if they knew they were getting the salary relief from the Suarez/Winker trade the very next day. They ended up spending about as much on Minor as they would have on Gray, at least for one season. Gray could have had a profound impact on the field and off the field as a mentor to the young pitchers. One big downside in my mind of trading all the pitchers is there is no one left to help the young guys figure out being a major league pitcher. Put Gray’s 2023 performance on the Reds and you have a first place team in this division.