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The Reds enter the weekend as the hottest team in baseball having won 11 straight games. Unfortunately for them, they’ll have to face off against the third hottest team in baseball, an Atlanta Braves club that’s won eight straight of their own.
The first place Braves currently sit at 48-26 after tying for the best record in the NL East with a 101-61 record last season. They’ve been one of the true powerhouse teams in the league for a while now, winning the division in five straight years, with one World Series title in that span. That also includes a sweep of the 2020 Reds in the first round of the playoffs.
The three game series kicks off on Friday, with the Reds expecting a sellout crowd. Saturday also looks to be a sellout or close, while a fair amount of tickets remain for Sunday.
- Friday, 6:40 PM
- Saturday, 4:10 PM
- Sunday, 1:40 PM
The Reds saw the Braves once already this year, being swept in Atlanta in a series of one-run losses. That came in early April, with the likes of Wil Myers, Jason Vosler, Jose Barrero, and a pre-demotion Will Benson in the lineup, so it’s safe to say a lot has changed with this Reds team since then. In addition, the Reds did not see any of the three starting pitchers that they’ll see this weekend in that series.
Position Players
12 position players have recorded at least 75 plate appearances with the Braves this season, and 11 of them have posted an above average wRC+. The lone exception is Michael Harris II, who’s posted an above average .324 xwOBA for the season and has a 170 wRC+ in June after a rough start to the year.
The Braves’ offense ranks third in the Majors in wRC+ at 119. They’re middle of the pack in walk rate and hold the ninth best strikeout rate so far this season. Here’s a chart comparing the Braves’ starters to the Reds’ starters.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is widely considered the frontrunner for NL MVP at this point, and for good reason. He’s on pace to have a shot at the first ever 30/60 season, sitting with 15 HR and a league-leading 31 SB so far this year.
Matt Olson has been as advertised, and offseason acquisition Sean Murphy has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. The same can be said of shortstop Orlando Arcia, who won out the starting role in a bit of a surprise over incumbent starter Vaughn Grissom, who still seems to have a very promising future.
If there could be anyone from this group of Braves position players that would be considered a disappointment, it would be Austin Riley and the aforementioned Harris. Harris, the defending Rookie of the Year, has come to life in recent weeks, and when all is said and done still has a chance to match his rookie campaign.
Riley has hovered around average, which doesn’t sound like a disappointment, but he’s fresh off two straight top 7 finishes in the NL MVP voting, so he’s clearly taken a step back so far this year. He’s actually been trending in the wrong direction, with his 71 wRC+ in June being his worst month (and actually, only below average month) since June 2021.
Starting Pitcher Matchups
The Reds are fortunate to miss the Braves’ top three starters this series. The most proven, veteran left hander Max Fried, sits on the 60 day IL with an anticipated return after the All Star Break. Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider, who many consider one of the top pitchers in all of baseball, won’t pitch this series after a rainout on Wednesday moved everyone back a day. Fellow second-year pitcher Bryce Elder, who currently sits second in the NL with a 2.40 ERA (albeit with worse peripherals), also won’t pitch in this series after pitching Thursday.
Friday’s game will see rookie AJ Smith-Shawver match up against Luke Weaver. It’s not entirely clear what to expect from Smith-Shawver, as he has just 13 1/3 innings thus far in his MLB career and metrics have mixed opinions of his performance. What is clear is that the Reds will likely need to score a fair amount off of Smith-Shawver to remain in the game, as Weaver has been on an incredibly rough stretch over his past few starts, and things aren’t likely to get better against an elite Braves offense.
Saturday’s Reds starter is still listed as TBD, but it seems likely that Graham Ashcraft will return from the IL to make this start. Ashcraft, like Weaver, has been in a rough stretch, though the hope is that the time on the IL served as both a physical and mental reset and he can begin trending back in the correct direction. Still, it’s a tall task against this offense. Jared Shuster is pretty clearly the weakest link currently in the Atlanta rotation, so the Reds will look to capitalize. He struggles with walks and doesn’t get many strikeouts, though he has been able to limit hits and home runs. The only lefty starter the Reds will see in the series, we will likely see a much different lineup on Saturday as opposed to the other two games.
Scouting the stat line, Sunday seems like the most evenly matched in terms of starting pitchers. Charlie Morton has been around seemingly forever, making his MLB debut all the way back in 2008 with the Braves, before seeing time with the Pirates, Phillies, Astros, and Rays, and then returning to the Braves. He’s still a solid innings eater type at the very least, and has shown even more than that in two of his three years since returning to Atlanta.
Each of Morton and Ben Lively see some significant disagreement between xERA and SIERA with regards to how they have performed thus far in 2023, but across the board, they seem like fairly similar pitchers. Morton will get more strikeouts, but will also issue more free passes than Lively.
Bullpen
As a whole, the Braves’ bullpen has been solid. They rank seventh in the Majors in ERA, third in FIP, and fourth in xFIP this year. The Braves’ bullpen doesn’t really struggle with walks, so the Reds will likely need to string together a few hits or hit home runs to capitalize.
Old friend Raisel Iglesias has 10 saves since coming off the IL, matching AJ Minter. Minter has been a mixed bag of results this season, struggling early before really rounding into form in recent weeks. The lone lefty in the Braves’ bullpen, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Braves continue his heavy usage in this series. He’s pitched in 37 games including Thursday, which leads the league. He’s pitched back-to-back games seven times this year, but hasn’t yet pitched in three consecutive games.
Conclusion
Simply put, the winning streak for one of these two teams will inevitably have to come to an end on Friday. The Braves amount to the toughest challenge the Reds have seen since the Dodgers, but they did take a combined 5 of 6 from the Dodgers and Astros, so this Reds team seems to be up for a challenge. After this series, they’ll travel to Baltimore for three games, return home to face the Padres for three, and then conclude the first half with seven games on the road – four in DC and three in Milwaukee.
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