RED MONDAY | Steer first-half MVP, Santillan returns, Abbott improves, the week that was

by — July 3, 2023 in Red Monday

Welcome to Red Monday, where Reds fans can start their week with clear-eyed analysis of how the team is doing and where it’s headed.

The Week That Was 

The Reds went 4-2 this week, winning the series 2-1 against the Orioles at Camden Yards and 2-1 against the Padres at home. David Bell’s team is now 45-39 and remains tied for first in the NL Central with the Brewers. 

  • Monday Playing in Baltimore for the first time since 2014, the Reds fell behind early and the Orioles pounded the not-good part of the Reds bullpen, pulling away for a 10-3 win. Brandon Williamson pitched through a downpour which eventually led to a 1:40 rain delay. Spencer Steer had three hits including his 12th homer. 
  • Tuesday Strong pitching led the Reds to a 3-1 over Baltimore. Andrew Abbott went six innings, giving up a run. Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer and Alexis Diaz threw three shutout innings. Diaz recorded his 22nd save, second-most in the N.L. Matt McLain (6) and TJ Friedl (5) homered. 
  • Wednesday The Reds took the series with an 11-7 win in ten innings. TJ Friedl had three hits, including his 6th homer, a walk and stole two bases. Will Benson had three hits and a stolen base. Friedl, Benson and Luke Maile drove in four runs in the 10th for the margin of victory. Buck Farmer gave up a game-tying three-run homer in the 8th. 

The Reds returned home to host the San Diego Padres for three weekend games. 

  • Friday The never-give-up character of the Reds was on full display in a 7-5 extra-inning win. Matt McLain (7) hit a two-run homer with two outs in the 10th to re-tie the game. Spencer Steer (13) blasted a two-run homer in the 11th for a walk-off win. Tyler Stephenson hit his 6th. Graham Ashcraft gave up only one run in 6.2 innings. Alexis Diaz blew his first save of the season. 
  • Saturday The Reds bullpen wasted a good start by Brandon Williamson who went five innings giving up one run. Buck Farmer, Alec Mills and Eduardo Salazar each gave up multiple runs as the Padres pulled away for a 12-5 win. Matt McLain had two doubles (13, 14), Jonathan India hit a grand slam (11) and Will Benson had three hits. 
  • Sunday Behind stellar pitching by Andrew Abbott and two home runs, the Reds won 4-3 and took the series from the Padres. Abbott went 7.2 innings, striking out 12 and allowing one walk. He gave up a home run to the final batter he faced. Spencer Steer hit his 14th homer, a two-run shot in the 4th inning. With the game tied and two out in the 8th, Stuart Fairchild — who had just been called up — pinch hit for Jake Fraley and drew a walk. Bell sent Tyler Stephenson pinch hit for Joey Votto and the young catcher delivered the fifth pinch hit home run of his career, this one with bubblicious pop. 
The Week to Come

The Reds play seven road games this week heading into the All-Star Game break:

  • Four with the last-place Washington Nationals (6:05 pm, 11:05 am, 7:05 pm, 1:05 pm)
  • Three with the first-place Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 pm, 4:10 pm, 2:10 pm)
Spencer Steer, Reds First-Half MVP? 

Spencer Steer has 341 plate appearances in the 2023 season. Yesterday, he blasted his team-leading 14th home run. It traveled well up into the second deck of Great American Ball Park’s left field. At 441 feet, it was the fourth longest homer for the Reds this year. Steer has hit four of the seven farthest. The two runs he drove in gave him 50 RBI, tied with Jake Fraley for the club lead. 

Steer has played wherever the club has needed him: third base (24 games), first base (54 games) and left field (8 games). When Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz joined the club, Steer kept his bat in the lineup by playing a competent left field, a position he had never played before. Steer has a negligible handedness split (138 wRC+ vs. LHP, 123 wRC+ vs RHP) allowing him to be an everyday player. His WAR, averaging FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference is 1.6. 

At the plate, Steer has improved across the board over 2022 and progressed during 2023. 

  • Strikeout rate (K%) is 19% and walk rate 11%
  • Expected batting average (xBA) is .250
  • Isolated power (ISO) up to .219
  • Overall run production (wRC+) up to 131
  • Contact quality (xwOBA) continues to increase up to .341
  • Average exit velocity (EV) up to 90.2 mph

That means Spencer Steer has been better than MLB average in strikeouts, walks, sprint speed, batting average, expected batting average, hitting for power, overall run production, contact quality, average exit velocity and chase rate. 

Steer has been with the Reds since spring training camp ended. He’s played in 81 games, second-most only to Jonathan India. Given his defensive flexibility, success batting at several places in the order and against both left- and right-handed pitchers and his terrific overall offensive numbers, you can make the case that Spencer Steer has been the team’s first half 2023 MVP. 

Tony Santillan’s Return

Pitcher Tony Santillan has been rehabbing in Louisville from a knee injury. Reports yesterday put him in the Reds dugout during their game against the San Diego Padres. It appears as though Santillan will be called up to the Reds active roster for the road trip beginning tonight. He’ll pitch out of the bullpen. Let’s look at Santillan’s career arc with the Reds and what we can expect on his return. 

Minor Leagues The Reds selected 18-year-old Tony Santillan in the second round of the 2015 draft out of Seguin High School in Arlington, Texas. Santillan emerged in Single-A and Double-A as an above average starting pitcher prospect, slipping into the Baseball America Top 100 prospects list in 2018. He spent the 2020 COVID season at the Reds alternate site and began the 2021 season starting for Triple-A Louisville. The young right-hander debuted with the Reds in June that year filling in for Sonny Gray who spent 3+ weeks on the IL with a groin strain.

2021 Santillan started four games for the 2021 Reds that month. In the starter’s role he was so-so, striking out 20 but walking 10 in 16 innings. In only one of those games did he go five innings. When Gray returned, Santillan went back to Louisville and the Reds had him work, for the first time in his career, as a reliever. Over the next couple months, the big right-hander shuttled between Louisville and Cincinnati. On August 17, Santillan was promoted to the Reds for good and he spent the rest of the year in the bullpen.

Tony Santillan was much better out of the bullpen than he had been in his four major league starts. His strikeout rate (34%) was excellent and walk-rate (10%) tolerable. Both his fielding-independent metrics (xFIP, SIERA) and contact quality stats (xBA, xwOBA) were outstanding. Santillan’s hard-hit rate was cut in half as a reliever and average exit velocity 3.6 mph lower. Like most pitchers, Santillan’s pitch velocity for both his fastball and slider was higher as a reliever. He also threw more first-pitch strikes.

As a reminder of how well he was pitching, here’s a Santillan fastball.

And here Santillan strikes out JD Martinez at Fenway with his slider.

2022 At the start of the 2022 season, with Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone sidelined or hobbled with injuries, Santillan took a lead role in the Reds bullpen. He closed out the Opening Day win. For a brief time, after Sims and Art Warren were on the IL, Santillan became the defacto closer. It was a role he held for just a couple weeks before heading to the IL himself on June 17 for what proved to be season-ending back strain.

2023 In 2023, he began the season at Louisville rehabbing his back. But after three appearances, Santillan went on the 60-day IL with a right knee strain. He got back on the Bats’ mound on June 13 and through Friday has appeared in seven Triple-A games. His 60-day clock ended last week and Santillan became eligible to return to the Reds.

Thanks to Statcast data being collected at the Triple-A level, we have a little info to work with. Santillan’s fastball (96.2 mph) and slider (86.5 mph) are right in line with his numbers from 2021 and 2022 when he was in the bullpen as are his spin rates. If Santillan is as effective in 2023 as he was as a reliever for the Reds in 2021 and 2022, it adds another solid arm for David Bell to call on. At a minimum, Santillan would be better than the bottom of the current bullpen. It’s possible he’ll be effective in high leverage innings. 

Andrew Abbott Improves

Photo: Reds Facebook

Two weeks ago, after he’d made three shutout starts, I wrote here about warning signs in Andrew Abbott’s pitching, namely low strikeout and swinging-strike rates, high walk numbers and giving up high exit velocity hits. Last week, after Abbott’s fourth start, I said that even though he gave up three solo homers, you could make a case it had been his best start so far. 

Since that post, Abbott has taken the mound two more times. He pitched on Tuesday against the Orioles in Baltimore and yesterday facing the Padres at Great American Ball Park. The 24-year-old lefty continued with better performances. Over the two appearances, he struck out 20 of 51 batters (39%) and walked only four (8%). 

Yesterday, Abbott induced 25 whiffs on 50 swings (50%). The Padres lack of plate discipline helped with that. But compare it to his first three games when he had a 15% whiff rate. According to Sarah Langs, since 2008 only two rookie pitchers had more in a game. Tyler Mahle was one of those two. Matt Wilkes discovered Abbott’s 25 swings and misses was the second-most for a lefty this season. Regarding his average exit velocity that had been above 92 mph in his first three starts, Abbott has averaged 88.5 mph his last three starts. League average is 88.4 mph. 

In Case You Missed It

Couldn’t decide which Louisville Bats highlight from yesterday to use, Noelvi Marte’s triple … 

… or Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s home run.

[Featured image: Reds Facebook]

Tags:

Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

1 Response

  1. Brian Van Hook says:
    July 3, 2023 at 5:37 PM

    Steer for MVP. Abbott has proved to be the Most Invaluable Player. Shudder to think where the pitching staff would be without him.

Subscribe to RC+ via Email

Get an email every time we publish a new post!

Reds Content Plus is a site for passionate fans of the Cincinnati Reds. Our staff of independent writers covers the performance of Reds players and the strategies of the Reds manager and front office. Our content builds on what you’ll find at other Reds fan sites. What separates RC+ is our use of (and explaining) advanced statistical measures. Whether it’s a sacrifice bunt, intentional walk, stolen base, bullpen use, pinch hitting or pulling the starting pitcher, we’ll dig into the numbers. If you want to support us, check out our Support Page.