Statcast, Stablization, and the Big Red Platoon

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Wednesday’s game marked the 12th game of the season for the Reds, and early next week, they’ll reach the 10% point for the season. The Reds’ offense currently checks in with a 97 wRC+, ranking 15th in the Majors. Though sample sizes are still small and it’s important to remain cautious about drawing too many conclusions this early, Statcast metrics can provide some additional insight into hitters’ early success or struggles.

Here are some Statcast metrics for Reds hitters heading into Friday’s game.

For expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and expected weighted on base average (xwOBA), those highlighted in red indicate that the hitter’s expected metric is lower than the hitter’s actual production. For example, Elly De La Cruz came into Friday’s game hitting .318 and slugging .659, though based on his quality of contact, Statcast estimates that he should be hitting .244 with a .453 slugging percentage.

Much as we saw at this point last year, there’s a fairly even mix of hitters underperforming and hitters outperforming their Statcast metrics so far. Of course, De La Cruz stands out as one of the players outperforming their Statcast metrics, though it’s probably fair to imagine the inside-the-park home run is a decent portion of the discrepancy between xSLG/xwOBA and their actual counterparts. Spencer Steer stands out as well, though it’s worth noting that he still has been very good according to his Statcast metrics, just not quite as good as his surface stats currently indicate.

It’s not exactly promising that Tyler Stephenson, Luke Maile, and Jeimer Candelario have actually outperformed their Statcast metrics to this point, since the trio have been among the Reds’ worst hitters all season. As bad as Candelario has been, it’s much more concerning that the underlying metrics paint an even worse picture of his season thus far.

On a more positive note, there are signs that the struggling Christian Encarnacion-Strand hasn’t truly been as bad as his 6 wRC+ indicates. Jonathan India‘s middling surface numbers also seem destined for some improvement if you buy in to the Statcast metrics.

Again, it must be cautioned that sample sizes are still small, and Statcast metrics don’t stabilize that quickly, so we must be careful with not drawing too many conclusions this early. A lot of analysis has been done into determining the stabilization rate for particular stats. Here are a few stabilization rates for hitters:

It’s important to note that no stat is ever actually fully stabilized. These are approximate points where a stat becomes stable enough where you can be confident in using it for analysis. As you can see, some stats will stabilize much quicker than others, and therefore provide more value in early season analysis. Others, like batting average and BABIP, don’t even reach their stabilization points in a single season, making it difficult for either of these to provide meaningful insights into a hitter.

The Big Red Platoon

Early in the season, the Reds have stuck fairly strictly to a platoon strategy, with vastly different lineups depending on if they face a left handed pitcher or right handed pitcher. The key differences have been the presence of Santiago Espinal and Stuart Fairchild against left handers and Jake Fraley and Nick Martini against right handers. There has also been a shift in the lineup order depending on the pitcher, with Will Benson hitting near the top of the lineup against right handers, Spencer Steer hitting near the top against left handers, and both sliding down the lineup against the opposite. While Luke Maile has ultimately been in the lineup more against LHP, and Tyler Stephenson against RHP, that seems to be more a factor of alternating their starts and keeping them paired with particular Reds pitchers rather than a platoon strategy.

The question becomes whether the platoon strategy is working. Early returns indicate that it very well may be, as the team has a 104 wRC+ against LHP, compared to 94 against RHP. However, it’s interesting that Benson, a left handed hitter who usually slots into the 9-hole against LHP, leads the team with a 197 wRC+ in that small sample size. Platoon pieces Martini, Fairchild, and Fraley have played well, with Espinal the only platoon player that has struggled thus far.

It will certainly be worth monitoring how this plays out over a larger sample size, and if David Bell ultimately makes any adjustments to what seems to be the most rigidly defined strategy he has employed in his time with the club. Bell has stuck to his lineups thus far, making only small changes here and there for rest or minor injuries, but otherwise not overreacting to early season results. This is a stark contrast from a club that trotted out new lineups seemingly every couple days over the course of recent seasons.

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