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The baseball world was mouth agape processing the hair-raising conclusion of the Mets-Brewers series when the story broke last night that /… checks notes … / Terry / … double-checks … / Francona would become the next manager of the Cincinnati Reds. The surprising news was received well throughout Reds Nation, with good reason. Over his 23 years as a big league manager, Francona sports a .538 winning percentage. Twice he skippered the Boston Red Sox to World Series championships. In six of the 11 seasons he led Cleveland, the team made the postseason. Nine times they finished first or second.
In short, the Reds have hired a guy headed to the Hall of Fame as a manager.
Last night’s report hit like a bombshell because of how Francona left baseball a year ago. He hadn’t been fired or pushed out. Terry Francona had quit on his own, out of concern for his health and that he had become worn out, unable to do the job with the vigor he had before. Two of his three most recent Cleveland teams had posted losing records. In 2023, David Bell’s Reds won six more games than Francona’s Guardians. In an interview a few months ago, Francona said he hadn’t really missed it. So, while Terry Francona hadn’t used the word “retired” industry suspicion was he’d likely managed his last Major League game.
Yet, because of his glittering track record, Francona was an obvious choice for the top of any list of potential Reds managerial candidates. The Reds had to ask. Francona’s availability, though, was pure speculation. Until it suddenly wasn’t.
What Kind of Manager?
Francona has been successful over a long career, possibly one of the all-time greats. Much of that career — the part no doubt appealing to Reds ownership — was with a low payroll team. Even the Reds have outspent Cleveland on big league players, by an average of $17 million a year since 2018. Francona arrives in Cincinnati with a decade’s worth of experience operating under billionaire owners who run their club on a cleat’s shoestring.
Francona may be old, relative to other baseball managers, but he isn’t old-school. Francona is comfortable and appreciative of the growing role analytics plays in winning baseball games. In interviews, he expresses open-mindedness to new data and curious about other applications. After all, he spent the 2003 season as bench coach for Oakland during the Moneyball era. Francona then managed the Boston Red Sox from 2004-2011, the choice of general manager Theo Epstein, who revolutionized the sport with his incorporation of data. Cleveland has long had a reputation for being one of the strongest analytics franchises in the sport.
If you expected the Reds to hire a guy who is going to criticize his players in press conferences and/or jump on them in the clubhouse — reasonable if you listened to the explanations for why the Reds fired Bell — you’ll be surprised to learn they hired the opposite of that. Francona has been the ultimate player’s manager. I doubt we’ll see much daylight between the way Francona and Bell approach their players.
Comparison to La Russa?
In 2021, the Chicago White Sox brought back Hall of Famer Tony La Russa to manage their club. La Russa’s two-year stint on the South Side was nothing short of a disaster. A good friend of mine (confession, a Cardinals fan) wondered last night if the Reds hiring Francona was a similar move.
The main difference is La Russa hadn’t managed for 10 years — a period of time when the sport’s thinking underwent radical change. He was 76 years old when he started managing the White Sox. The 65-year-old Francona has been out only one season. La Russa struggled in relating to White Sox players and resisted outside input from his front office and coaches. Those will not be issues for Francona.
Two recent and better comparisons might be the Houston Astros hiring Dusty Baker in 2020 and the Texas Rangers bringing back Bruce Bochy in 2023. Baker had been out two seasons and was 71. His 2021 Astros won the AL Pennant and a year later the World Series. The 68-year-old Bochy had been retired for three seasons and led the Rangers to a World Series win his first year back.
While Terry Francona may not be as old as Tony La Russa, he will turn 66 in April. Over the past few years, he’s struggled with heart, hip, shoulder and stomach problems. He was treated for blood clots and had double hernia surgery. While everyone hopes he’s past all that, remains healthy and can manage for a good long time, you can’t ignore it. In the short run, it increases the importance of his second-in-command, the person who would replace Francona if he has to step away for a while as in the past. That next-in-line person needs to be a strong hire by the Reds.
Conclusion
The Reds hit a towering home run in hiring Terry Francona. A majestic blast, worthy of the best John Sadak call.
But managers only do so much. It’s easy to exaggerate their importance. In the dugout, the vast majority make similar decisions, ones dictated by hard-to-argue-with information science. In the clubhouse, almost all skippers are player’s managers, not disciplinarians, because that has proven to work in place after place. Folks who think their particular manager influences the outcome of dozens of games a year have it wrong.
Yes, Terry Francona has been a successful manager. His Hall of Fame credentials will bring immediate leadership to the Reds clubhouse and credibility across the league. But keep in mind, in Boston and Cleveland he also had brilliant front offices and supportive, non-meddling ownership. Will Francona enjoy that edge in Cincinnati? Cleveland, without Francona, won 92 games this year, under a skipper with no previous managerial experience. That’s 16 more games than they won with Francona in 2023.
Further, please don’t read anything about the overall direction of the organization into Francona’s hiring. The internets and podcasts are jammed with hot take narratives like “Francona’s hiring signals the Reds are going to boost payroll.” or “Francona’s hiring means the Reds will be serious about winning.”
Look, Craig Counsel is the highest paid MLB manager and he makes $8 million a year. That’s what the Reds paid Emilio Pagan, a non-closer reliever. The next highest paid manager makes $5.5 million, less than Joey Votto’s 2023 buyout. In other words, the manager’s salary is trivial in comparison to that of the major league roster.
Here’s a narrative just as easy to spin: The Reds made a splashy, impulsive manager hire to divert attention from their underwhelming player roster plans.
Terry Francona arrives to Cincinnati with the franchise in a state of great uncertainty. It’s undergoing a creaky, opaque ownership transition. A huge chunk of club revenue is up in the air, threatened by a media company’s bankruptcy. Powerful voices inside the organization tug it backward. The Castellini ownership dynasty has a long history of meddling in baseball decisions.
Does the Francona hire point the way to real, fundamental change for the Reds?
We simply don’t know yet. Reds fans can dream he will have the same success here as he did in Cleveland, both on the field and in helping his organization shed its “we’re a small market” pretexts. Does the Castellini family deserve the benefit of the doubt? Far from it.
Terry Francona is a home run manager hire. We hope he can stay for a while. But the player roster is destiny.
