Anthony DeSclafani’s fastball velocity and what it means

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Anthony DeSclafani’s career teetered on the edge; he had missed much of 2016 and all of 2017 with injuries, and in mid-March of 2018, his oblique failed him once again. Reds Twitter deemed him unfit for service: his stuff would never be the same they said. I can’t say I blamed them.

Injuries to pitchers are the rule rather than the exception. The human arm isn’t meant for the stress of a mid-90s fastball or hard slider. When pitchers use other parts of their body to compensate, they break down elsewhere. For three straight years, Disco fought the long battle of recovery, only to face the cruel fate of more rehab.

Finally, DeSclafani made his first start in over 20 months on June 5 last season and remained healthy throughout the rest of the year, much to the surprise of his skeptics. And his stuff did indeed come back, at least from a velocity standpoint.

[Source: Brooks Baseball]

Disco’s fastball and sinker had slowly ticked up every year, even during his injury plagued seasons. In 2018, his numbers inched upward because he threw harder in September, averaging almost 95 on his hard stuff. But in 2019, Disco fever is bringing the heat more consistently:

• Four seamer – 95.08
• Sinker – 94.94
• Slider – 90.29
• Curveball – 83.58

Disco inferno! The hard stuff continues to get harder, and DeSclafani has actually increased his velocity on his four seamer and sinker every month this year, topping out at about 97.5 MPH.

In July he’s averaging 95.52 MPH on his fastball, and 95.39 MPH on his sinker. Those are significantly higher than his pre-injury days and a sign that maybe he is fully healthy. However, the biggest jump this year has come on the slider and curveball where Disco has added 2-3 MPH. Those are enormous increases.

The uptick in velocity actually began at the end of 2018, pre-dating the current coaching staff, but it has risen to a new level in 2019. Coming off multiple injuries, these changes seem odd. What’s the cause?

Hard to say. DeSclafani continues to get further away from his injuries so health has likely played some role in it. Also, starters do not need to pace themselves as they once did. Instead of going 7 or 8 innings, they typically go 5 or 6. DeSclafani might be maxing out his velocity because he knows he doesn’t need to save anything.

Maybe the new coaching staff has found something mechanical that’s allowed Disco to throw harder and build on whatever he started last September. Every year, players figure out new ways to strengthen their bodies and increase athletic performance. DesSclafani may have gained strength from a new workout routine or diet.

Whatever the cause, there is no doubt that his velocity has increased. But velocity isn’t everything, and Disco has had mixed results this year in spite of “better” stuff.

Disco is getting more whiffs and striking out more batters than he ever has, but his ERA predictors are all worse than his career numbers. However, it looks worse than it is. The league average FIP and xFIP are up considerably this year, likely because of the juiced baseball. An average starter has an FIP of 4.49 and xFIP of 4.45. Disco has been above average in xFIP and SIERA, the two best ERA predictors.

Still, the large jump in FIP is the result of baseballs leaving the park too often. Among qualified starters in the National League, DeSclafani has given up the fifth most home runs (19) and is only two behind the leader. He similarly struggled with the long ball last year.

Those bombs have occurred for two reasons: (1) batters are hitting the ball in the air more and (2) they are making harder contact more often.

In the past, DeSclafani has induced ground balls at roughly a league average level. This year, he’s well below average. Hard hit ground balls rarely leave the park. Hard hit fly balls, however, often end in bat flips and bruised egos. Disco’s FB% and Hard Hit% have both jumped to previously unseen levels in 2019. Batters have barreled up a higher percentage of balls (8.1%) than they have in the past.

BOTTOM LINE

Harder stuff has led to more strikeouts, but it has not kept hitters from making solid contact. This handy chart aptly summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of his game.

Disco ranks in the bottom 31% in Hard Hit% and bottom 40% in slugging, but his above-average strikeout rate has led to some success. To take another step forward, DeSclafani needs to recapture his ground ball abilities and miss barrels more often.

He’s throwing harder and maybe that leads to better results over the long haul. Right now, his increased velocity is offset by harder contact against him. DeSclafani is a serviceable pitcher whose velocity is better than it’s ever been. If nothing else, the Reds have a solid back-end starter with some hope for more.

[Featured Image: https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1136683194487623680]