RC+ Preview: Four games in two days; the double, double-header is here

by — August 31, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

Hold onto your hats, Reds fans. If you like baseball and have approximately 12 of the next 30 hours free this Labor Day weekend, you could spend all 12 watching the Reds. With the Cardinals currently in the driver seat for the NL Central, an opportunity to make some St. Louis fans sweat a bit is certainly something to look forward to.

Game #1 Pitching Matchup

Steve gave some thoughts on Dakota Hudson last night.

“It’s hard to know what to make of Dakota Hudson. The ERA-estimators are a lot less bullish on him than his ERA would indicate. And that includes his being unlucky on home runs so far. What the fielding-independent stats point to his his lowish strikeout rate and well above average walk rate. He’s made three starts against the Reds this year with just 7 strikeouts to go with 7 walks.”

Trevor Bauer will be looking for a much less rocky start than his last outing where he lasted three innings and allowed 7 runs. Aside from ERA, Bauer certainly looks like the better pitcher in this one.

Lineups

David Bell makes a slight adjustment since last night, replacing  Nick Senzel in centerfield with Phillip Ervin. Both are right-handed hitters so this may have more to do with balancing the workload of four games in 30 hours. VanMeter will remain in the leadoff spot.

The Cardinals also make one move in the outfield, replacing Harrison Bader with Tommy Edman. Edman worked the Reds in the last four-game series in Cincinnati, going 6-16 with five runs scored.

Game #2 Pitching Matchup

The second game (7:15 ET) features arguably the Reds most successful pitcher this season in Sonny Gray going against a disappointing Michael Wacha. Another game where the Reds have an advantage on the rubber.

Sonny Gray has been nothing short of fantastic this year, and his numbers bear that point out. His xFIP and SIERRA are not quite as enticing as his ERA, but they are still well below league average. His Statcast data is also red hot right now, with his 9.9% walk rate really the only thing the Reds might like to see go down.

Gray’s counterpart, Michael Wacha, is having a rough season after an injury-filled 2018 allowed him to only throw 84 innings. He was much more effective than he has been in 2019 though, and the home run is a major factor. He is allowing more than double the number of home runs per nine innings despite getting more groundballs and less hard contact. While most of his numbers are not promising, his average exit velocity allowed (87.5 mph) is just a hair worse than Gray (87.3 mph).

RC+ Stat Stumper

In case anyone missed the answers to this week’s Stat Stumper, they are now posted in the comments of the linked article.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Matt Habel

Matthew Habel was born and mostly raised in Cincinnati and was always a Reds fan growing up. Ironically, he did not become die-hard until moving to Pittsburgh after college and experiencing the 2013 Wild Card game behind enemy lines. While the "Cueto Game" is one of the worst sports moments of his life, he became enamored with the analytics side of the game after reading Big Data Baseball and watching the Pirates organization end their postseason drought. He started writing for Redleg Nation in 2017 and has enjoyed continuously learning more about the sport. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon where he loves exploring the great outdoors. Find him on Twitter @MattadorHeyBull

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