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Continuing from the previous post on plus stats, we will now look at some offensive players that may be in for a closer to average performance in the second half of the season. There are definitely a lot more data points available (i.e. Statcast) that can supplement this analysis and help us better understand the whole picture. However, these posts are designed to showcase the plus stats and how they can quickly point to certain discrepancies.
A Quick Look at Joey Votto
Starting with the basics, these three plus stats give us a very good idea of what is driving certain player’s on base ability. Which numbers are in line with expectations and which could be mid-season anomalies?
Joey Votto is the most obvious candidate to take a look at here. With a 2019 On Base Percentage Plus (OBP+) of 110 compared to 129 for his career, he clearly has not performed up to his standard. A massive portion of this drop has come from a lower though still elite walk rate, which comes out to a Walk Rate Plus (BB%+) of 137 vs his career 189. On top of that, his Batting Average Plus (AVG+) is sitting at 104, far below his career norm of 118 but still above average.
There is a chance that some of this is due to aging given he is currently in his age 35 season (although age 35+ players are performing pretty well this year). Even if he cannot still hit for power like he used to, a higher walk rate and a slightly higher batting average would go a long way to getting his on base percentage closer to where we are used to seeing it. Given his hot hitting of late, that does not appear to be out of the question going into the second half.
Fly Ball Rate Plus (FB%+) vs Isolated Power Plus (ISO+)
For the past few years, players all around baseball have been reworking their swings and approach with the goal of getting more balls into the air. Balls in the air lead to more bases than balls on the ground, which is another way of saying they are hitting for more power.
The hitters with the best power numbers on the Reds are Eugenio Suarez and Derek Dietrich (not coincidentally, they also lead the offense in fWAR). Suarez’s ISO+ of 128 is well above his career average of 115. This is despite hitting fewer fly balls than he normally does, with a Fly Ball Rate Plus (FB%+) still above average at 107. So where is the additional power coming from?
Pulled Ball Rate Plus (Pull%+)
The quick answer looking only at plus stats would be that he is pulling the ball much more this year. Compared to a career Pulled Rate Plus (Pull%+) of 109, his 2019 number so far is well above that at 131. Pulling the ball is the best way to generate maximum power, and Suarez seems to be tapping into that more. Whether that is intentional or not remains to be seen.
Dietrich is also doing a good amount of pulling (118 Pull%+) while also hitting more fly balls than normal (136 FB%+). While those are positives that have most likely helped his power numbers, his ISO+ is an insane 185 compared to his career 113 and is certainly unsustainable for a full season. He may have gained immediate fan favorite status with his towering dingers and slow trots, but it would be ill-advised to bet that he continues this performance all year.
Strikeout Rate Plus (K%+) and Walk Rate Plus (BB%+)
Several Reds hitters have declined this year in either strikeout rate or walk rate. Some players with above average career numbers have seen their 2019 performance drop below average. Joey Votto’s career K%+ of 92 (8% better than average) has declined to 101 this year. Yasiel Puig has dropped below average for both statistics. His 2019 marks of 66 BB%+ and 108 K%+ are much worse than his career numbers of 105 and 99. Jesse Winker is another who has seen his very strong career BB%+ of 132 drop all the way to 98 in the first half this year. If the Reds offense is going to become more consistent down the stretch,
Can you guess the one Reds hitter with below average career numbers that is currently above average for both? Derek Dietrich has improved on his career marks of 82 BB%+ and 108 K%+ with a 107 BB%+ and 98 K%+.
Players to Watch
Switching back to the power numbers, another player that stands out is Jesse Winker. Winker’s ISO+ is strong at 118 (career is 104), but his FB%+ is surprisingly low at 70 (career 85). With an exactly league average pull rate, it appears that Winker added power by hitting more line drives than normal. His 13 home runs are not shabby and rank 4th on the team, but if he can get a bit more launch angle over the second half of the year, he could certainly add to his impressive power showing so far.
A discussion of power would not be complete without the man who has probably the most raw power on the team, Yasiel Puig. Puig’s ISO+, while climbing rapidly and strong at 117, is below is career average of 127. This is even though his FB%+ this year is 131, well above his career average of 104. So why has his power been zapped to start the year despite hitting more fly balls? Two possible explanations are a low Pull%+ (84) and BABIP+ (86). Both are nearly 20% lower than his career numbers and could be contributing factors. Puig has already started to heat up and could continue to elevate his game is those two numbers normalize in the second half.
