RC+ Preview: The Mariners have another major league debut

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The Reds (67-79) try to salvage a game in the Emerald City. That’s Seattle’s nickname. It’s also the name of the capital city in the Wizard of Oz. I wouldn’t look behind the Reds’ curtain right now, if I were you. On the other hand, there’s the Christian Yelich spread in the ESPN Body Issue.

Pitching Matchup

Tyler Mahle starts tonight for the Reds. You might not know if from his ERA, but Mahle (24) is having an excellent season, with strong improvement in the outcomes that pitchers control. Our Nick Carrington wrote an excellent post about Mahle’s 2019 progress this week. This would be a great time to read it if you haven’t already.

From Mike Hart:

Justin Dunn is making his major league debut. Dunn came to the Mariners from the Mets in the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz trade. He has never pitched in any level higher than AA. Fangraphs and Baseball Savant don’t have advanced statistics on Dunn, but here are his 2019 stats with the AA Arkansas Travelers: 131.2 IP, 118 H, 39 BB, 158 Ks, 3.55 ERA

From the Baseball Savant Scouting Report:

“There hasn’t been any issue with Dunn’s stuff since he entered pro ball. He’ll sit in the 93-95 mph range with his fastball and can reach back for more at times. He does have a pair of breaking balls, with his slider ahead of the curve. He’ll throw the harder slider with good late bite and it looked like a plus pitch for him at its best in 2018. Dunn is still working to develop his changeup, though he shows some feel for it. He’s made progress in getting left-handed hitters out, using that third pitch more effectively at times.

While Dunn’s overall command and control have been inconsistent in his brief career, the Mariners feel they saw a better strike-thrower as he got settled in during his bounce-back 2018 campaign. He is athletic, which should help him repeat his delivery. Staying healthy helped Dunn take a nice step toward his ceiling as a mid-rotation big league starter.”

Reds Lineup

The Reds scored 2 runs last night. They continues to sink deeper in N.L. offensive rankings. Anyone who thinks improving the offense isn’t the primary need this offseason is either out of touch with current events or an ideologue. The loss of Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are an issue, to be sure. But overall the team needs to make substantial improvements. They need to take the same single-mindedness that got the pitching last off-season to the other side of the equation this year.

David Bell has Josh VanMeter back in the leadoff spot against a RH pitcher. VanMeter is playing 1B with Joey Votto in the DH slot. Brian O’Grady, another LH bat gets a start. So does Jose Peraza, who is decidedly not left-handed. Peraza is playing 2B instead of Derek Dietrich or Alex Blandino. The Reds appear to still be looking at Peraza.

Here are the splits for Reds hitters against right-handed pitchers:

Mariners Lineup

Former Reds prospect Shed Long leads off. Long went to the Yankees as part of the Sonny Gray trade in what turned out to be a three-way deal with the Mariners. Long has played in 26 games for the Mariners.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Big thanks to Mike Hart, who contributed content, graphics and research for this post.