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For years, errors were the only way of measuring a player’s defensive ability. Make a lot of errors and you were viewed as a poor defender. Post a 98% fielding percentage and you were elite. Sure, there was also the eye test in terms of range and arm strength, but there were no numbers behind any of those observations. Looking back on this one-dimensional approach now is easy to second-guess, but before the wave of data that has engulfed the game, that is all there was.
The funny thing is, it turns out defense is still hard to measure even with the advanced tools and technology that are now available. There are a lot more statistics and numbers we can use to try to quantify total defensive value. They are far from perfect but still can help point us in the right direction. And they are certainly better than just looking at errors.
Two of the more commonly referenced defensive stats are Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). In this two-part series, we will look at what comprises each statistic and how the Reds currently fare according to each.
Defensive Runs Saved
Defensive Runs Saved was developed by John Dewan and rates individual players above or below average using a total of runs, either positive or negative. The data inputs come from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), formerly Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), which “captures statistical snapshots of every on-field event.” Anything from the direction, distance and speed of the batted ball, plus more, is recorded and used for understanding player’s skills and abilities relative to each other.
The stat has ten components that we will take a look at as well as check in on the current Reds players and see how they stack up. Here is a look at all ten, as well as the fielding positions that each apply to. 
Note: The information and data used was referenced from The Fielding Bible and FanGraphs.
Range and Positioning System
The first component is perhaps the most important and overarching as it applies to all fielders except the catcher. This attempts to calculate the number of plays made above or below the average player at that position. Using the batted ball data from SIS, every single play is analyzed, and similar plays are compared to one another. If a fielder makes a play on a ball that at least one other fielder in baseball was unable to make, then that fielder receives credit, which increases their plus/minus (The Range and Positioning System used to be known as the Plus/Minus System). If a player cannot make a play that at least one other player has made, they lose credit, which decreases their plus/minus.
To put numbers to this, if a batted ball is fielded for an out by the shortstop 23% of the time, and shortstop A makes a play on a ball that is similar to that, he gains 0.77 plus/minus (1.00 – 0.23). If shortstop B cannot make a play on the same batted ball, they lose 0.23 plus/minus (0 – 0.23). There are also adjustments made to each position based on circumstances such as a first baseman holding on a runner or a second-baseman or shortstop covering a hit-and-run.
With that basic understanding, let’s look at how the Reds have fared in 2019. To no surprise, the current leader is Jose Iglesias with a plus/minus of +4. Iglesias has been a joy to watch on the defensive side of the ball and the numbers certainly back up the eye test. He comes in as the 9th best SS in the league, with Nick Ahmed of Arizona leading with +11.
Other notable Reds include Jose Peraza, Phillip Ervin and Scott Schebler who all come in at +3, while Kyle Farmer and Amir Garrett have +2. Rookie sensation Nick Senzel rates as the worst on the team with -3, despite looking comfortable at his new position in centerfield. More time and larger sample sizes are needed to get a better sense of his true defensive value.
In terms of who has sustained success over a longer time frame, Yasiel Puig’s numbers make him far and away the best defender on the team according to DRS, with +23 Range and Positioning plus/minus since 2016. Joey Votto comes in at +10 and Eugenio Suarez at +8. The biggest liabilities have been Jesse Winker (RF) at -14, Derek Dietrich (LF) at -8, and Jose Peraza (CF) at -5.
Outfield Arms Runs Saved
Focusing on just the outfielders, this next component measures the strength an accuracy of the throwing arm. The basis is the idea that in extra-base situations, the runner either advances safely, gets thrown out trying to advance, or holds and does not challenge the outfielder. The third scenario is something Reds fans have seen a lot of this year when the ball is hit to Yasiel Puig, which he does get credit for is runners are not attempting to advance based on his known arm strength. Factoring in adjustments and using the 24 base-out states for run expectancy, the fielder is given a value above or below the average fielder.
Once again, the numbers back up the narrative as Puig has the best arm value on the team and is tied for 6th best in baseball with +3 so far this year. Cody Bellinger leads the league with +6. Since 2016, Puig’s +10 arm runs saved is tied for fifth best in baseball. Former Red Billy Hamilton is tied for first with +12.
The only other Reds player to note is Jesse Winker, who is positive from RF with +1 but negative from LF with -1. Despite seeming counter-intuitive, Winker’s numbers in RF (+1) vs LF (-2) since 2016 support that is arm has played slightly better in right.
Groundout Double Plays Saved
Double play runs saved is fairly straight-forward and measures each infielder’s rate of double plays turned compared to average. There is also data used to determine the difficulty of each double play. Jose Peraza is currently tied for the league lead with +2. Coming into 2019, however, his career total since 2016 was -2, so his performance this year could be tied to having a strong middle infield partner in Iglesias. Iglesias himself has been average at turning double plays since 2016.
Bunt Runs Saved
Another straight-forward component, Bunt Runs Saved measures corner infielders along with pitchers and catchers on bunted balls and possible outcomes. The Reds have never seemed to be good at bunting, but how have they been at defending the bunt?
Current Reds that show positive performance since 2016 are Luis Castillo and Tanner Roark, both at +2, while the top pitcher in the league, Zach Greinke, is only one better at +3. Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto both rate negatively at -3 and -2, respectively, with Ryan Zimmerman the worst in the league at -5.
Pitcher Stolen Base Runs Saved
Skipping ahead a bit, we will stick with the pitchers and look at their ability to control the running game. According to John Dewan and The Fielding Bible, 65% of the responsibility to hold runners falls on the pitcher while only 35% goes to the catchers. Even if that number is an estimate, that still shows the importance that the pitcher plays.
For the Reds, Tanner Roark again shows up as a leader on the Reds with +2, compared to +6 as the best in baseball since 2016. Jared Hughes and Cody Reed bring up the rear with -3 and -2, respectively. All in all, the Reds have done very well in comparison to the rest of the league, posting +6 runs saved in that same time frame, which is tied for sixth in baseball.
Catcher Defense
There are a few components that apply only to the catcher and we will address all of those at once. They include stolen bases runs saved, adjusted earned runs saved, and strike zone runs saved. Stolen base runs saved is the equivalent of the above stat for pitchers, just measuring catchers instead. Adjusted earned runs saved is a way to account for the quality of the pitching staff that the catcher partners with. Strike zone runs saved is essentially framing, something I wrote about at Redleg Nation earlier this year.
To measure catcher framing, SIS calculates a strike zone plus/minus using inputs such as location, ball-strike count, proximity to catcher’s target and the batter’s handedness to determine the likelihood each pitch is called a strike. Pitches are then measured against that baseline and the result is an attempt at measuring a catcher’s ability to draw more strike calls than average on the outside of the zone.
For Tucker Barnhart, DRS tells the same story as FanGraphs and Statcast framing stats. From 2016 to 2018, Tucker’s strike zone run saved total was third worst in baseball at -21, which falls in line with FanGraph’s framing runs saved at -30 (still third worst). However, both stats have Barnhart showing positive runs saved this year, indicating that either he improved his framing ability, or the overhauled pitching staff has given him better pitches to work with. It is most likely some combination of the two.
Meanwhile, Curt Casali posted -5 strike zone runs saved and -4 framing runs between 2016 and 2018. He too has turned it around and is just slightly above average in both metrics so far this season.
Good Play/Misplay Runs Saved
The final component is a bit of a catch-all. It rewards or penalizes exceptionally good plays that would not have been considered negative had they not been made. On the flip side, it penalizes bad plays that would not have been considered positive if they had been made (essentially all errors and other mistakes that lead to unearned positives for the opponent). While there is some inherent subjectivity to this, the SIS video scouts are trained to recognize good and bad plays.
The Reds leader by far since 2016 in this category, and the co-leader (with Mookie Betts) in all of baseball is Tucker Barnhart. Since bunt defense and stolen bases are accounted for in other components, this is almost surely showcasing his ability to block potential wild pitches or make catches on tough pop ups, two things Reds fans have seen a lot of. This also supports the narrative that Tucker’s defense is strong, even if his pop-time and framing are below average.
On the negative side, Jose Peraza at shortstop and Scooter Gennett at second base both have -4 runs saved since 2016. It is safe to say that those two at middle infield would not be making many spectacular defensive plays.
Final Output
Add it all up, and we get one number that tries to quantify defensive production. As I mentioned above, defensive statistics like DRS are far from perfect and should not be the only consideration when analyzing defense. It is, however, a good start and can give a directional gauge of ability and comparison between players.
Heading into the 2019 season, defense appeared to be a liability for a club that lost Billy Hamilton and featured Matt Kemp, Jesse Winker and Scooter Gennett as regulars. However, according to DRS, the Reds have been tied with the Rays as the fifth best defensive team in the league, accumulating 38 runs saved so far this year. They have done so with some strong performances from Jose Iglesias (+6, SS), Jose Peraza (+4 2B, +1 SS) and Luis Castillo (+4) supplemented by average or above average performances from almost everyone else on the team. The only significant under performers are Nick Senzel, who is playing a brand-new position, and Matt Kemp, who is no longer with the team.
Even if DRS is not 100% accurate and this team is closer to average than top 5, the eye test supports the idea that the defense has helped the pitching staff and contributed something to its incredible performance so far. There is also the fact that the new coaching staff has been embracing data more so than ever and defensive positioning may be playing a role in this success. A recent article from SIS shows that the Reds are among the best in the league at positioning their infielders, which could be contributing to the strong numbers from Iglesias and Peraza.
Looking ahead, it will also be interesting if David Bell continues to push for defensive versatility. Given the DRS results, the case could be made that playing certain players out of position is hurting the team more than helping. Peraza playing anywhere but second base looks like an instant downgrade, as well as playing Dietrich in LF (-16 DRS since 2016) and Jesse Winker in RF (-13 DRS since 2016 vs -5 DRS in LF).
The other significant factor that is quickly approaching is Scooter Gennett. His return will certainly hurt the team defense considering he drove -9 DRS in 2017 & 2018. But if players like Curt Casali (+3) and Kyle Farmer (+2) continue to see playing time and the established players like Yasiel Puig (+3) Eugenio Suarez (+1) continue to perform well, this should still be an above average unit.
Stayed tuned for my next post, which will be a deep dive into another defensive statistic; Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), I will compare DRS and UZR and see what additional insights we can gain about the Reds fielding abilities.
