by Reds manager David Bell made the wrong decision in the 5th inning last night, but not the one you and Tyler Mahle think he made. Or at least the one Tyler Mahle was willing to say out loud.
Situation: The Reds were behind 2-0. Mahle was to face the top of the Rangers lineup for the third time. Mahle gave up a leadoff double to Shin-Soo Choo and then walked Delino DeShields, Jr.
Next up was Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus. Andrus is a switch hitter with a pretty equal handedness split, although his wRC+ has been slightly better against left-handed pitchers (100 vs. 84 career; 112 vs. 105 in 2019). Bell left Mahle in to face Andrus, who popped up.
Mahle was at 96 pitches. The batter was Rangers cleanup hitter Nomar Mazara. In contrast to Andrus, Mazara has a decided split. He’s much better (101 wRC+) versus right-handed pitchers than against lefties (65 wRC+). Due to bat after Mazara were Asdrubal Cabrera, a switch hitter with dead-even career numbers vs. LH and RH pitchers, and Rougned Odor, another left-handed batter who has had much more success against RHP.
Pitchers like Tyler Mahle.
David Bell took Mahle out. It was the right decision beyond question.
First of all, Mahle has a gigantic LH-RH split. In his relatively short major league career, Mahle’s xFIP against RH batters is an excellent 3.42. But against LH batters, it’s a horrifying 5.48. If you’re not familiar with or sold on xFIP, Mahle’s strikeout (23% vs 21%) and walk-rate (5.3% vs 13.2%) are parallel. He’s given up wOBA of .289 against RH batters and a whopping .399 against LH batters.
Further, Mahle has been much worse against batters the third time through (TT) the lineup. xFIP for his career:
- 1TT: 3.76
- 2TT: 4.13
- 3TT: 5.77
The gap is similar in 2019, but all the numbers are lower (yay):
- 1TT: 3.18
- 2TT: 3.52
- 3TT: 5.01
So David Bell’s decision to remove Mahle against Mazara in the 5th inning of a 2-0 game with two runners on base was beyond second-guessing. And bringing in a left-handed reliever to face Mazara, Cabrera and possibly Odor was the right move, too.
Where Bell went wrong was calling for Wandy Peralta instead of Amir Garrett.
Without going into much detail (I’ve expressed my issue with the Reds use of Peralta here.) Peralta is not good and Garrett has been spectacular.
Rule of thumb: Better pitchers should be matched to high-leverage situations. While this was only the fifth inning, the game getting out of hand was on the line. It was an extremely high leverage spot. It was possible, if not likely that Bell wouldn’t get another chance to use Garrett in an equally important situation. In fact, that’s what happened.
Peralta struck out Mazara. But then he walked Cabrera. Peralta has had trouble with walks in the past, but has cut his walk-rate so far this season. Pitching around the dangerous Cabrera might have been smart, since the next batter would be another lefty in Odor. The problem with that reasoning is that Peralta has been an even-handed disaster. His xFIP is equal parts awful (4.64 vs. LH, 4.75 vs RH).
Wandy Peralta should have been nowhere near the mound with the game on the line and bases loaded, no matter the inning. Allowing that to happen was David Bell’s mistake.
Peralta grooved a slider to Odor who hit it 400 feet into the beautiful Cincinnati night. When the ball landed half-way up the GABP Moondeck, the game was over and it didn’t matter who David Bell brought in later. Amir Garrett, of course, never pitched.
In general, David Bell has done a spectacular job managing the Reds pitching staff. The statistics speak for themselves. The starters and relievers as units are each near the top of team rankings. Like last night, Bell has been aggressive getting his starting pitchers out of the game early and protecting leads with an excellent bullpen.
But he needed to use Amir Garrett in the 5th inning. That goes against the old-school code of saving the best relievers for the end of the game. Bell needed to go against the code in that situation and he didn’t.
What about Mahle’s post-game comments?
Tyler Mahle, who is still just 24 and has made only 40 big league starts, was frustrated and questioned being pulled from the game. He expressed a desire to “battle through” the jam.
Mahle also mentioned the previous game when Bell removed him after 73 pitches. But that wasn’t a situation where Mahle was yanked for cause, but that the Reds needed to pinch hit for the pitcher. Bell even said after that game that Mahle could have pitched more were it not for the greater need for offense. [Our recap of that game discussing that decision.]
Truth be told, Mahle’s frustration might have been being replaced with Peralta. If Odor flies out instead of hits a slam, the Reds young starter might have been content to shut up. Two of the runs that scored on the homer were on his ledger.
Mahle might have been thinking “Why are you taking me out for that guy?” but didn’t want to say that about a teammate.
Either way, Tyler Mahle and the vast majority of major league pitchers – the ones who aren’t the likes of Max Scherzer – have to get used to it. The way David Bell has been managing the Reds starting rotation is in line with what’s going on in the rest of MLB. It’s a trend that started before the 2019 season. Mangers are unwilling to pay the Third Time Through Penalty.
And Mahle hauls along a big TTTP.
Tyler Mahle has had an excellent 2019. He’s shown considerable improvement over last season. A big part of that is Mahle has been spectacular against the opponent’s lineup the first two times through. He’s earned a spot in the starting rotation if and when Alex Wood returns.
But perhaps Tyler Mahle should think about bearing down and “battling through” things at the start of the sixth inning. If he hadn’t given up the double to Choo and the walk to light-hitting DeShields, he wouldn’t have been pulled when he was.
And “battle through” to what end?
Finishing the sixth inning, pitching into the seventh or eighth inning? That’s not on the table. Nor should it be. That thinking is the ghost of baseball’s (recent) past but now out of date. Starting pitchers should focus their energy on maximum effectiveness the first two times through the lineup.
That’s a new role. But it’s modern reality.
