Opponent Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

by Steffen Taudal — March 31, 2021 in Opponent Previews

The Cincinnati Reds open the 2021 season on Thursday with a 3-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Reds had a record of 4-6 versus the Cardinals in 2020.

After appearing in the 2019 NLCS, the Cardinals are no doubt hoping to improve from a somewhat disappointing 2020, in which they went 30-28 and earned a wildcard spot. The Cardinals went for quality over quantity in the offseason. And the team is counting on one major acquisition and a few bounce-back seasons from key players being enough to take a weak NL Central in 2021.

2020 Recap

While the Cardinals did make the playoffs, the team underachieved. After all, with the exception of Marcell Ozuna, the Cardinals brought back every major contributor from 2019, when the team won 91 games.

The Cardinals performed poorly at the plate last season. Players like Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong and Tommy Edman saw their power plummet. This, coupled with Ozuna’s departure, resulted in an offense that finished 27th in slugging percentage with .371 and tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for last in isolated power with .137.

As a result, the Cardinals had to rely on a few hitters to produce runs. Of the eleven players with 100 or more plate appearances in 2020, only three posted a wRC+ of 100 or higher. So even though the overall numbers are very similar to 2019, Paul Goldschmidt’s wRC+ of 146 is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that.

Pitching was also less than impressive in 2020. While the team finished a respectable 9th in ERA, their FIP and xFIP stood at 19th and 16th, respectively. The biggest disappointment was 2019 breakout star Jack Flaherty. The 25-year-old right-hander had a brilliant season in 2019 with an ERA of 2.75 and a FIP of 3.46 across 196.1 innings. In 2020, Flaherty found less success as his ERA ballooned to 4.91 and his FIP to 4.11. Instead, the Cardinals got quality innings from Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim, but pitching has to improve in 2021 if the Cardinals are to go on another deep playoff run.

The Cardinals did not have an easy season last year, as they had to deal with an outbreak of COVID-19 just five games into the season. As a result, the team did not play a game from July 29 to August 15. While this may very well have contributed to the team’s struggles, the Miami Marlins found a way to overcome a similar situation. The Cardinals finished the 2020 season second in the NL central three games behind the Chicago Cubs. They earned the 5th seed in the NL, and lost to the San Diego Padres in the wildcard series 2-1.

The Offseason

In one of the biggest moves of the offseason, the Cardinals were able to acquire superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado in a trade with the Colorado Rockies. Through what can only be described as gross organizational mismanagement, the Rockies even agreed to send about $51 million along with Arenado to St. Louis. Meanwhile, the prospect package that the Rockies got in return, did not include any of the Cardinals’ top prospects.

Other than Arenado, the Cardinals had a quiet offseason. The team brought back franchise legends Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright on one-year deals, traded outfielder Dexter Fowler to the Angels and let second baseman Kolten Wong and bench player Brad Miller leave via free agency.

2021 St. Louis Cardinals

Here is the lineup FanGraphs projects for the 2021 Cardinals.

With the addition of Arenado, the St. Louis Cardinals addressed two major question marks going into the 2021 season. First, it was important to add another strong bat to the lineup. FanGraphs projects Arenado will lead the team in slugging percentage and home runs. If DeJong returns to form, and the Cardinals get their famous devil-magic flowing through Tommy Edman again, this lineup could produce some pop. One further note to this lineup is that rookie Dylan Carlson will probably move to RF when Harrison Bader comes back from injury.

Second, while Kolten Wong was never a great hitter, the two-time Gold Glove winner has been an excellent defender. Replacing that production in the infield was important, and Arenado is in a league of his own as a defender. Since 2017 Arenado leads all third basemen in outs above average.

Meanwhile, FanGraphs projects a nice bounce-back season for Jack Flaherty. With the eventual return of Miles Mikolas, who missed all of 2020, the Cardinals are hoping these two can help push them into the playoffs. In the bullpen, the Cardinals are no doubt looking forward to seeing Jordan Hicks again. The flame-throwing right-hander had opted out of the 2020 season for health reasons, but in his Spring Training debut he reached 101.4 mph on his fastball.

Jack Flaherty’s projected numbers:

Miles Mikolas’ projected numbers:

Despite those bright spots, pitching looks to be the biggest question mark surrounding the team in 2021.

Even with the addition of Arenado, however, Fangraphs give the Cardinals just a 24.5% chance of winning the NL Central.

Pitching Matchup

The Reds’ Sonny Gray will start the season on the IL. Reds’ manager David Bell has named Luis Castillo the team’s starter in game one, but beyond that we don’t know. As such, the Reds’ starters are based on FanGraph’s projections. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will be starting Flaherty, Wainwright and Carlos Martínez.

Thursday 4/1