Recapping Tyler Naquin’s Hot Start and Forecasting his Reds Future

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When the Reds signed Tyler Naquin to a minor league contract on February 18, it was assumed he would have an outside shot at making the club if he performed well in spring. 

Naquin joined the club in Goodyear and impressed at the plate, smashing 8 extra-base hits and drawing 5 walks in his 48 plate appearances. After Shogo Akiyama suffered a left hamstring strain on March 13, Naquin’s chances to make the team grew exponentially, especially considering he had more MLB appearances in center field (136) than any outfielder on the roster. He eventually had his contract purchased on March 29, just days before Opening Day, while Akiyama opened the season on the injured list. 

Since making the team out of camp, Naquin has continued to impress not only the Reds, but the whole baseball world. 

After Nick Senzel exited Opening Day with a shoulder injury, Naquin stepped in to play center field. He started there the next day, and has started every game since then — 4 in left field with Jesse Winker sidelined by a non-COVID illness and 1 in center field when Senzel got a day off. Naquin has taken the opportunity and ran with it.

Along with Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, and others, Naquin has helped the Reds get off to the best offensive start in franchise history, posting some absurd numbers along the way. While his 5 home runs and 14 RBI are the easy stats to point at, his StatCast numbers have been equally impressive. In 16 batted ball events, Naquin has posted the following:

• 5 barrels (31.3% rate)
• 99.8 MPH average exit velocity
• 113.5 MPH max exit velocity
• .389 xBA
• 1.045 xSLG
• 14.8% walk rate

Comparatively to the rest of MLB, Naquin has been among the league best to start the season.

Amazingly enough, Naquin has had at least one batted ball with an exit velocity over 96 MPH in every game this season:

• 4/1/20: 106 MPH groundout
• 4/3/20: 96.2 MPH single
• 4/4/20: 96.6 MPH groundout; 109.8 MPH HR
• 4/5/20: 104.4 MPH groundout; 98.3 MPH flyout
• 4/6/20: 113.5 MPH + 106.3 MPH HRs; 102.7 groundout
• 4/7/20: 99.8 MPH HR; 109.8 MPH groundout
• 4/9/20: 111.3 MPH HR

So, where does Naquin go from here? 

Nick Castellanos is irreplaceable for the Reds in right field. Nick Senzel is off to a great start and playing great defense in center field. Jesse Winker was arguably the Reds best hitter in 2020 and has an average exit velocity of 101.3 MPH. David Bell can ride the hot hand until Winker feels fully acclimated and Naquin cools off, but he is a fantastic option for the Reds as a fourth outfielder and spot starter.

The bigger question surrounds the return of Shogo Akiyama. Nick Krall will have a decision to make when Akiyama is activated from the injured list in May, as the Reds don’t have many reasons to carry 3 extra outfielders. Between his hot start and the outlook of the rest of the roster, Naquin is positioning himself well to maintain his place with the Reds.

Akiyama’s return will give the Reds a second left-handed bench bat. The other bench players include Alex Blandino, Kyle Farmer, Aristides Aquino, and Tyler Stephenson; who are all right-handed hitters. Having Naquin and Akiyama as your left-handed bench hitters and 4th/5th outfielders is a good problem for David Bell. 

The one roadblock for Naquin is Aquino, who has also been hitting the ball hard to start 2021 (1.065 xSLG, 2 HR). Aquino is out of minor league options, and his power will always be appealing. It does not seem like there’s a scenario where the Reds carry Aquino, Akiyama, and Naquin, especially when Michael Lorenzen returns and provides another right-handed outfield option (when he’s not starting on the mound). 

Naquin has given the Reds a problem that many teams would envy. You can never have too many good hitters, and while Naquin will regress toward his career averages at some point, he seems comfortable and more patient in his approach since joining the Reds in February.

Featured Image: https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1379573214897127425