More than a Wink: How Good Can Jesse Winker Be?

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I’ve always felt an affinity for Jesse Winker. I was actually at Great American Ball Park for his first game. After receiving a warm welcome from the Cincinnati crowd, Winker settled into the batter’s box and ended up hitting a line drive double. It was exciting to see such a highly touted prospect perform so well in his very first at bat. Over the next few years, he’s had a solid start to a career and has developed into an above average hitter. There’s a very good chance that he would have made the NL All-Star team in 2020, if the ASG had been played. So far, Winker’s off to an even hotter start to 2021, including that dramatic extra-inning home run last night. 

What can Reds fans expect for Winker as he continues play? Will he continue to improve? How sustainable is his success? How good can Winker truly be? While no one can truly predict the future, we can look at advanced metrics and his peripheral statistics to paint a picture of why Winker has been successful so far and what Cincinnati can reasonably expect from him in the near future.

Overall Profile

Let’s take a quick look at Jesse Winker’s overall MLB percentile rankings from Baseball Savant to see where he stands with respect to his peers.

A few things stand out from this data. For starters, I think it’s unreasonable to expect Winker to ever win a gold glove. He’s also not going to be a stolen base threat either. Where he has excelled is in making hard contact. With an average exit velocity in the 92nd percentile and a hard hit percentage in the 91st percentile, Winker has been able to achieve significant success at the plate, and the power many scouts saw in him is truly starting to develop.

Winker’s hard contact is a continuation of a trend Reds fans have seen from him over the last several years.

Outside of taking a slight dip in 2019, Jesse Winker’s average exit velocity has steadily increased year over year, fueling his success in the batter’s box.

There is a strong statistical correlation between hitting the ball harder and getting more hits, which is indicated by Winker’s high batting average and slugging percentage. If he continues hitting the ball at the same rate, there is evidence to believe that his numbers are fairly sustainable.

Here we see Jesse Winker’s outcome stats alongside his expected stats. Expected stats, while not the end all be all, area way of measuring hitters based off the quality of contact that they are making. While Winker has so far outperformed his metrics, his expected stats aren’t far below what he’s actually achieved. Even if he regresses, he will be a true threat at the plate.

But Can He Hit Lefties?

One criticism levied at Jesse Winker has been his struggle at the plate against left-handed pitchers.

During the 2020 year, Winker did his best to put those doubts to rest.  Over the course of the 60 game season, Winker had an All-Star OPS of .890 against left handed pitchers. He appears to have come back to earth this year, currently boasting an OPS of .657 against lefties. It’s too early to draw solid conclusions, though, as the sample size from 2021 of 14 plate appearances is too small.

Pitch Tracking Data

Let’s dig a bit deeper and look at Winker’s contact quality against different types of pitches.

Winker has had incredible success against fastballs this year. So far, when someone has thrown Winker a fastball, he becomes Superman at the plate. While it is completely unreasonable to expect him to be able to sustain this level of success, his expected stats indicate that even if regression occurs, he will be an elite fastball hitter.

Winker has had less success against breaking balls. He’s struggled to hit the ball as hard, and his expected stats indicate this. His struggles against breaking balls are not an indication of his true quality as a hitter, though. Breaking balls are notoriously difficult to hit, and his batted ball data is fairly consistent with MLB as a whole.

Where Jesse Winker’s true hitting quality shines is in his batted ball data against off-speed pitches, which are also known to be difficult to hit. He’s had solid success here, although he is outperforming his expected slugging by a fairly large margin. What’s encouraging is that he’s been able to put off-speed pitches in play at a rate that appears to be sustainable.

Conclusion

Jesse Winker has quietly emerged as one of the better hitters in the league. He’s had a stellar start to his 2021 season, and his current success is an indication of consistent improvements made year after year. Winker’s defense and base running are subpar, but he more than makes up for these shortcomings with his bat. What’s encouraging is that, judging by his quality of contact, his success appears to be sustainable.

Reds fans can be excited about the hitter we have in Jesse Winker. He’s a true threat at the plate, and he’s continuing to improve. His talents have contributed to the Reds recent successes. Personally, I’m a big fan of Jesse Winker, and I expect to see him mashing for years to come.