Tucker Barnhart and Tyler Stephenson: How’s the Platoon Going?

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In the 2021 offseason, it came as little surprise that the Reds parted ways with catcher and right-handed bat Curt Casali, who signed with the San Francisco Giants after a great year at the plate in 2020. The reason for Casali’s departure was the promise shown by top prospect Stephenson, who had a wRC+ of 173 in 20 plate appearances in the shortened season.

In 2021, Tucker Barnhart has been the team’s primary catcher with 19 starts. Tyler Stephenson, now in his first full season with the Reds, has made 11 starts — including all five of the team’s starts against lefties — and several pinch hitting appearances. So far, the two have been exceptional, combining for a 135 wRC+, good for third best in the Majors. But let’s dive into the numbers to see how the platoon has been working and whether the pair’s success is in any way sustainable.

Platooning as a Strategy

The Reds had good reason for wanting to keep a right-handed alternative to Barnhart. In 2019 and 2020, the gold glover combined for a wRC+ of -3 in 73 plate appearances against southpaws. As such, it seemed the perfect solution to have the right-hander Stephenson stay in the majors to take care of lefties in 2021.

This is where things get murky. If the Reds were looking for the perfect platoon at catcher, one where each player offered the perfect matchup against their opposite handedness, they probably would have been better off keeping Casali. While Stephenson hasn’t been completely lost against lefties like Barnhart, the numbers aren’t exactly great: so far, in his 28 career PAs against southpaws, Stephenson has a 61 wRC+, which ranks 42nd out of 53 catchers with at least 25 plate appearances in 2020 and 2021. He also has a 39.3% strikeout rate without drawing a single walk.

In fact, this season, it’s been Barnhart who’s giving lefties trouble with a 164 wRC+ while slugging .700. As Barnhart’s past performance against lefties indicates, however, there is little reason to think that this production will continue, and the Reds still appear to be giving Stephenson the majority of lefty plate appearances as he currently has 17 compared to Barnhart’s 10.

Thankfully, however, Stephenson and Barnhart have both been raking against right handers, with a combined wRC+ of 146, which is tied for best in the Majors. And if you’re getting tired of that stat, how about a .393 wOBA? That’s also tops in the Majors by a wide margin, as the next best sit at .377. (These numbers take into account only the plate appearances where the pair appeared as catchers, meaning that appearances as pinch hitters and other positions are not accounted for here).

Is it Sustainable?

Short answer? Probably not.

For as good as the pair have been, there are some stats that make me worry.

The most obvious red flag is their BABIP, which sits at an absolutely ludicrous .458, the highest in the majors by about a mile. The next highest catching group is the Phillies at .354. Other concerns are the pair’s collective 32.3 K%, which ranks 26th in MLB, and their 6.9 BB%, 18th in MLB.

I don’t need to tell you that a .458 BABIP is almost certainly unsustainable, but if Barnhart and Stephenson continue to strike out and walk at the rate they’ve been doing to start the season, they could be in for a rather precipitous fall when their BABIP goes down. It should be mentioned, however, that both Barnhart and Stephenson currently have an xwOBAcon, which measures the expected wOBA of the balls that are put in play (thus taking strikeouts and walks out of the equation), of over .400. So it’s not just dumb luck; they are hitting the ball well.

Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that this production will continue when looking at the Statcast’s expected numbers for Barnhart:

Let’s start with the positive: Barnhart’s 41.5% hard-hit rate and his 20.0% chase rate are both improvements from 2020, so let’s hope that continues. As expected, however, his 38 K% is near the bottom of the league. A 7.6 BB% is also disappointing from Barnhart, whose BB% from 2018-2020 was 11%, which ranked 42nd out of 196 batters with at least 900 plate appearances. Furthermore, Barnhart’s xwOBA (.299), xSLG (.384) and xBA (.222) are all well below league average.

Unfortunately, Stephenson does not have enough plate appearances to earn a place in Statcast’s percentile rankings, but his numbers suggest a slightly better chance at sustainable success. As of writing this, the second-year player has a .276 xBA, .435 xSLG, and .329 xwOBA. If put into the leaderboards, these numbers would rank 113th, 175th and 164th, respectively, out of 307 qualified batters.

Conclusion

While the platoon may not be working perfectly, it is hard to argue with the production put forth by the Reds’ catchers so far in 2021. And as the Reds look towards a future where Tyler Stephenson is hopefully their everyday catcher, they have to be encouraged by his ability to hit right-handers, who make up a majority of MLB pitching. If he can continue to hit well against righties while improving, even toward league average, against lefties, the Reds may have something special in the 2015 first-round pick, whose defense has looked excellent in 2021.

Featured Image: Rich von Biberstein (Icon Sportswire)