RC+ Recap: Cubs knock on Wood, keep pounding

RC+ Recap: Cubs knock on Wood, keep pounding

It’s just one game. The Reds have Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray pitching the next three nights. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett are fresh thanks to Kyle Farmer. Plenty of series left.

Pitching has been a strength of the Reds. Not tonight. Alex Wood made just his third start, so it was no big surprise that he wasn’t sharp. The Cubs hit him pretty good, although only 2 of the 5 runs scored off him were earned. The Reds rallied to tie the game at 5-5, but things unraveled at that point. Kevin Gausman made his first appearance for the Reds. The good news is he hit 96 mph on the radar gun several times and struck out two. Bad news is he gave up four hits, including a homer and two runs in two innings.

Aristides Aquino hit a home run hard.

He also doubled. Aquino also threw the ball fast.

Aquino did strike out three times.

Phillip Ervin had two doubles and two singles.

Kyle Farmer pitched the final 1.1 innings and Statcast didn’t record any of the data.

Jose Peraza committed an error in the 3rd inning at second base that led to three unearned runs. He also botched a ball at shortstop that was ruled a hit that led to two more runs. On another play, he didn’t get to a ball that most shortstops would have, allowing two more runs. Peraza has been getting playing time, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to justify it. He’s gone about 130 plate appearances without a walk. He’s batting .236/.280/.352 with a wRC+ of 62. That’s 38 percent below league average in run production. Peraza looks about as far from the “shortstop of the future” as possible.

Reds Most Valuable Players

  • Kyle Farmer (.197 WPA) win probability added
  • Aristides Aquino (.164 WPA)
  • Phillip Ervin (.097 WPA)

Reds Least Valuable Players

  • Alex Wood (-.344 WPA)
  • David Hernandez (-.166 WPA)
  • Kevin Gausman (-.150 WPA)
  • Jose Peraza (-.074 WPA)

Plays of the Game

  • Aristides Aquino (.136 WPA) home run, 3rd inning

Hardest-Hit Balls

  • Aristides Aquino (118.3 mph) home run, 445 feet
  • Jose Peraza (104.0 mph) ground out
  • Phillip Ervin (102.5 mph) double

Luckiest Reds Hit of the Day

  • Kyle Farmer (5% hit probability) single, 72.5 mph

Unluckiest Reds Out of the Day

  • Jose Peraza (80% hit probability) line out

Highest Pitch Velocities by Pitcher

  • Kevin Gausman (96.3 mph)
  • David Hernandez (94.4 mph)
  • Lucas Sims (93.8 mph)
  • Alex Wood (90.9 mph)
  • Kyle Farmer (no record taken)


Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

3 Responses

  1. Jeffversion1 says:

    They took David Hernandez off the mound in the middle of an inning to put a position player on the mound. Farmer then wriggled out of the little jam and pitched a scoreless ninth. Even with all the random that happens in baseball, that has got to be brutal for David Hernandez.

    On the flip side, AA may or may not be for real, but he’s been amazing to watch so far.

  2. Jefferson Green says:

    For most of his time in Cincinnati, Jose Peraza has seemed to walk around without confidence, getting very down after mistakes and not approaching his opportunities with assertiveness. The exception seemed to be the second half of last year, and we saw fewer mistakes and a lot fewer weak swings serving balls softly into the outfield. I wonder how much psychology teams employ these days and what they have done to try to help Jose. I’d love to see him blossom, but he seems to be doing the opposite, which I was worried about when Scooter got hurt and suddenly he was displaced at SS.

    • Steve Mancuso says:

      Agree. There’s a chicken-egg aspect to being down and losing a position battle. Beyond that, when your portfolio as a hitter doesn’t include power or walks, that leaves batting average. For most hitters, that means the vagaries of BABIP and luck have a huge impact on what your bottom line numbers look like. Then add in that he’s an average defender at best, and I just don’t see the long-term potential for him. That said, I hope the Reds give him plenty of playing time the rest of this season so they can find out more about him.