RC+ Recap: Phillip Ervin walks off the Phillies, Reds split series

Phillip Ervin hit a walk-off home run in the 11th inning on Thursday afternoon to send the Reds to a 4-3 win and a series split against the Phillies. The opposite-field blast was a GABP special, just sneaking over the wall into the first row of seats. The ball had an exit velocity of 96.4 mph and an expected batting average of .240. But hey, the result is all that matters here.

The Reds scored all of their runs via the long ball, and the other three tallies came in the sixth inning in a matter of three batters. Alex Blandino started the rally with a blistering 106.9-mph double, the hardest hit of his short MLB career. Jose Iglesias followed with with a two-run shot in the sixth to give the Reds a lead. It was the second-hardest hit Iglesias has had this season (106.0 mph) and his third-longest home run (412 feet).

Next batter Eugenio Suarez, in his first game back from a hand contusion, showed he’s healthy by sending a heat-seeking missile into the seats in right field. It only went into the first row of seats, but it was obliterated at 110.2 mph and a launch angle of 17 degrees. At a launch angle that low, a batter has to crush the ball to get it out of the park. Only 21 home runs have been hit at or below that launch angle this season in the entire league. Their average exit velocity: 110.1 mph.

Meanwhile, Sonny Gray was masterful yet again, allowing one run and four hits in six innings. Walks have been a problem for him recently, but he did not issue a free pass for the first time since his July 17 start against the Cubs. The curveball was the go-to pitch for Gray on Thursday, and it was dominant. He threw it 35 times on 89 total pitches; while he got only five swings and misses, he repeatedly locked up hitters with the breaking ball (10 called strikes) and made them look foolish when they did swing (78.2 mph average exit velocity).

Kevin Gausman was the first man out of the bullpen and had a rough inning, giving up a run on a walk and two singles.

Robert Stephenson gave up a home run in relief to let the Phillies tie the game, but don’t be fooled if you’re only his stat line. He made a good pitch — a high, inside fastball in 1-1 count — but J.T. Realmuto went up and got it to send it out of the park.

Stephenson dominated otherwise, getting seven whiffs on 18 pitches (38.9% SwStr%). All were on sliders (58.3% SwStr%).

Raisel Iglesias, Joel Kuhnel, and Matt Bowman combined for three nearly perfect innings between the ninth and 11th. A walk by Kuhnel was the only blemish. Iglesias struck out two in a perfect inning, getting three whiffs on six changeups — all against left-handers. Iglesias hasn’t been as dominant with the changeup against lefties this season — he has a 37.2% whiff rate versus 43.3% last year — so that was nice to see.

Reds Most Valuable Players

  • Phillip Ervin: .314 WPA (Win Probability Added) | 1-for-4, HR, RBI, BB
  • Eugenio Suarez: .187 WPA | 3-for-5, HR, RBI
  • Sonny Gray: .187 WPA | 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K

Reds Least Valuable Players

  • Aristides Aquino: -.168 WPA | 0-for-5, K
  • Robert Stephenson: -.141 WPA | 1.0 IP, ER, HR, 2 K
  • Freddy Galvis: -.135 WPA | 0-for-1

Play of the Game

  • Jose Iglesias: .223 WPA | Go-ahead solo home run in 7th inning; Reds lead 6-5

Hardest-Hit Balls

  • Eugenio Suarez: 110.2 mph home run in 6th inning
  • Alex Blandino: 106.9 mph double in 6th inning
  • Jose Iglesias: 106.0 mph home run in 6th inning

Luckiest Hit of the Day

  • Josh VanMeter .23o xBA, 94.6 mph, 28° LA; Double in 3rd inning

Unluckiest Out of the Day

  • Joey Votto: .480 xBA, 103.2 mph, 37° LA; 385-foot flyout in 8th inning

Highest Pitch Velocities by Pitcher

  • Joel Kuhnel: 97.3 mph four-seam fastball
  • Raisel Iglesias: 96.7 mph four-seam fastball
  • Robert Stephenson: 96.6 mph four-seam fastball
  • Kevin Gausman: 96.5 mph four-seam fastball
  • Sonny Gray: 94.6 mph four-seam fastball
  • Matt Bowman: 94.1 mph sinker

Links

Matt Wilkes

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.