2025 Reds Mid-Season Analysis – Team Offense

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The pause in the regular season from the All-Star break gives us an opportunity to look in-depth at how the Reds have performed in the first 60% of the season. This post examines team offense. Later posts will dig into individual players and pitching.

So, how has the 2025 Reds offense performed so far?

Bottom Line

Of all the statistics referenced in this post, the first — and most basic — may be the biggest surprise.

The 2025 Reds are 13th out of 30 teams in runs per game at 4.55. League average is 4.38. Their 441 runs scored have been punctuated by outbursts. Recall the 24 runs on a Sunday afternoon in Baltimore, or 14 at home against the Rangers in the season’s first week. Twice the Reds have scored 13 runs.

That’s simple run scoring. It’s an easy bottom line.

But there have been droughts. Infamous, frustrating droughts. That 14-spot against Texas was followed by three consecutive shutouts. One of the 13-run games was bookended by two shutouts and a one-run performance. This month, after scoring nine against the Phillies on the Fourth of July, they put up a total of five runs over the next four games. In 22 of their 97 games, the Reds have scored zero or one run. Nine other games they scored two. The most common game score for the 2025 Reds is one, which they’ve managed thirteen times. They’ve been shut out in nine games.

What explains how a team with above-average run scoring generates so many offensive clunkers? We need to get beyond the simple bottom line. An analysis of underlying batting data offers a better understanding of the true talent of the team. It’ll also shed light on what’s to come.

We’ll start by looking at the three basic batting skills: (1) hitting for average, (2) drawing walks, and (3) hitting for power.

Hitting for Average

Batting average (BA) is often thought of and referred to as the player’s “hit tool.” It’s the percentage of plate appearances the player hits his way onto base. By this measure, the Reds rank 16th in hit tool, with a .246 team BA. That’s right about league average.

A big part of hitting for average is making contact on swings. How have the 2025 Reds done making contact? On pitches in the strike zone, they have been average. When chasing out of the strike zone, they have been a little below average in making contact.

Plate discipline — not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone — helps with contact rates and batting average. How do the Reds rate on chasing balls? The good news is they have the second-lowest chase rate, which at first glance is a positive. But hold on. The Reds also have the second-lowest swing rate on pitches in the zone. They rank dead last in swing percentage. The club’s low chase rate reflects a lack of aggression at the plate, not discipline.

Back to their batting average. Have the Reds been lucky or unlucky? Based on quality of contact, they rank 27th in expected batting average (xBA). An xBA that far below the club’s BA is an indication they’ve been fortunate. Another way to gauge a team’s luckiness is looking at their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Reds have had a BABIP of .299. League average is .291.

Now, BABIP depends on several factors. One is pure luck. Another is quality of contact. The harder and better you hit the ball, the more likely it becomes a hit. To show the difference, Joey Votto had a career BABIP of .335. Chris Valaika’s career BABIP was .297. A club could have a higher BABIP because it hits the ball better. But as we’ll see in a moment, the 2025 Reds haven’t hit the ball hard, just the opposite, so contact quality doesn’t explain the elevated BABIP. The 2025 Reds have a lower line-drive rate than any Reds team in the past 50 years except for two.

Drawing Walks

This one is simple and straight-forward. The league average walk-rate is 8.5%. The Reds are at 8.7%, better than average. They rank tied for 13th in that category. The 8.7% is up from the team’s 8.3% in 2024 and little below the 2023 Reds who posted a 9.0% walk-rate.

When you combine batting average with walk-rate you have a good approximation of on-base percentage (OBP). Getting on base is the best way to think of the value of the first two hitting components. The Reds fall squarely in the middle, with a team OBP of .317.

Hitting for Power

Hitting for power is vital for sustained offensive success.

It does comes with drawbacks. More strikeouts. Fewer base runners. Poorer plate discipline.

But power more than pays off in what it contributes. Ever since Babe Ruth and the live-ball era in 1920, in every season, teams that hit for more power have won about 72% of games. The past few years, the winning percentage for more powerful teams has been almost 90%. And contrary to old-timey wisdom, that has been even more true in the postseason.

I like to use isolated power (ISO) to measure of power hitting. ISO is simple. It measures extra bases gained per at bat. The reason I prefer ISO to slugging percentage (SLG) as a measure of power is that SLG includes singles. Batters who hit a  bunch of singles have a higher SLG, other things equal. ISO focuses on the ability to hit for extra bases, which seems like the right definition of hitting for power. To calculate it, you subtract BA from SLG.

The 2025 Reds rank 14th in isolated power (ISO) at .151.

ISO may be a good measure of power, but it doesn’t adjust for park factors. We need to keep digging to see how hard and far the Reds are hitting the ball.

Turns out, even though the 2025 Reds have hit for average power, they don’t hit the ball that hard. The team’s hard-hit rate of 28.7% ranks 26th. Their average exit velocity (88.7 mph) ranks 27th. Their average distance per hit ranks 29th. The team’s average bat speed ranks 28th (70.9 mph).

Let’s elaborate on that last measure — bat speed. The concept has been understood and valued in a player forever. A “quick bat” has been sought by scouts for decades. Bat speed drives exit velocity. It’s simple physics. A faster bat generates more force. Transferring more power to the ball makes it travel faster and farther. Now, thanks to the array of high-speed cameras in each big league park, we can measure it.

The average major league bat speed is 72 mph. Research shows the point where the average swing goes from negative to positive offense is 75 mph. Every MPH of bat speed earns six feet of distance in air, converting warning track outs into valuable home runs. Again, the Reds are 28th in bat speed, right around 71 mph.

Studies have shown that hitting the baseball hard is crucial for offensive. The 2025 Reds find themselves 28th in expected power.

How about the long ball? A vast majority of games are won by the team able to hit more home runs. Despite playing in the most homer-friendly park in the major leagues, the Reds have hit a below-average number of home runs (103). Their soft-ish home run numbers are also reflected in their league-average ratio of home runs per fly ball (11.5%), despite GABP’s dimensions.

To imagine how a team would perform at GABP if built to hit for power, just look at the Reds opponents. GABP has given up 119 homers in 2025. The Reds have hit 52, opponents 67.

Composite Measures of Offense

Certain composite stats put all that together — hitting for average, taking walks and hitting for power.

FanGraphs calculates Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) which assigns typical run value for every plate outcome. The “plus” means it’s on a scale with 100 points as average. Every point above or below 100 is a percentage above or below league average.

wRC+ is also adjusted for park and year-to-year run environment. It lets you compare the Big Red Machine (1975: 111; 1976: 120) with the wire-to-wire Reds (1990: 94) with the Votto-led champs (2010: 106; 2012: 93).

The 2025 Reds have a wRC+ of 96. That’s four percent below league average and tied with three other clubs for ranking 20-23.

Another composite stat is expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) as calculated at Statcast. xwOBA is different from wRC+ in that it looks at contact quality instead of game outcome. It’s independent of defensive variance and luck. It’s also not on a 100-point scale.

The Reds rank 27/28th out of 30 teams in xwOBA, ahead of only Colorado and Cleveland. Their .307 xwOBA falls well below the league average of .326. Compare that to the Cubs, for example, who rank third at .347.

The Central Question

How can a team that ranks 13th in runs per game only rate 24th in wRC+ and 28th in xwOBA?

We’ve already looked at the role luck has likely played in the number of hits by the 2025 Reds in the first half. Another huge part of the explanation is the ballpark. Based on FanGraphs’ numbers, one park (Colorado) has a higher pro-offense park factor than GABP. And the Reds’ home park has been far and away the friendliest for home runs.

To put that second point simply, when they play at home, they don’t have to hit it as hard to score runs.

Let’s look at a few other possible explanations.

Team Speed

It’s possible the Reds have built a team on athleticism that scores runs above its hitting weight because of team speed. Speed can influence run scoring in a couple ways — stealing bases and taking extra bases on balls in play.

Stolen bases don’t correlate much with run scoring (or winning), but the Reds rank right in the middle at 14th with 72 SB. Last season, the Reds had stolen 134 bases before the All-Star break. When you factor in the times caught stealing, the 2025 Reds rank below average with a net negative value from SB attempts. Their SB success rate is 76%. League average is 77%.

Another way team speed can lead to runs is by taking extra bases. The 2025 Reds do rate above average in this metric. They have taken an extra base in 45% of their opportunities, with a league average at 42%.

Taken together, Statcast estimates the Reds have a “Baserunning Runs Above Average” of +3.  That combines the value of the team’s stolen bases and extra bases taken. That’s three runs, not three wins. Three runs above average over 97 games is trivial. So team speed hasn’t had much of an impact on the extra runs the Reds have scored.

Opposite Field Hitting

One thing we hear from the Reds brass and repeated nightly by several of our broadcasters is how the Reds are being instructed to emphasize slapping the ball to the opposite field. Some of the announcers reference it so often you’d think they are getting paid by the mentions. Every opposite field hit, no matter how soft, is “a good piece of hitting.” When was the last time a Reds broadcaster described a squared-up, 400-foot home run to the pull gap as a good piece of hitting?

Anyhow, maybe the Reds have been scoring extra runs by peppering the ball to the opposite side more often, hitting there not for power, but for average.

Welp, it turns out Terry Francon’a 2025 Reds have hit fewer balls (22.2%) to the opposite field this year than in any previous season, at least dating back to the Big Red Machine Era. Even compared to recent years (23.6% in 2024, 23.0% in 2023, 24.3% in 2022) this year’s Reds are going oppo less than ever before, despite the nightly broadcast drumbeat calling it to our attention.

The 2025 Reds have the 27th lowest opposite-field percentage out of 30 teams.

In fact, the 2025 Reds are pulling the ball more than ever. Seriously. More than ever. When was the last time you heard that on a broadcast?

New detailed data shows that swinging early, making contact ahead of the plate, not sitting and waiting to slap it to the other field, is what does offensive damage, both in terms of home runs and batting average. Trying to hit to the opposite field with an inside-out swing lowers bat speed. In that case, the last thing you want Reds hitters to be doing is trying to hit to the opposite field.

Situational Hitting

Are the Reds scoring extra runs because they have been good at situational hitting? “Situational hitting” includes sacrifice bunting, avoiding double plays, getting runners in from third with less than two outs and advancing runners from second with no outs.

Despite attempting more sacrifice bunts than average, the Reds rank next-to-last in success. The Reds have succeeded 35% of the time (7 out of 20), the league average success rate is 63%.

The Reds have been right around league average in grounding into double plays, scoring runners from third with fewer than two outs and advancing a runner from second with no outs. So, they don’t seem to be benefitting more than other teams with situational hitting.

Analysis

The Reds are 50-47 and in fourth place in the NL Central, 7.5 games out of first. They sit 2.5 games out of the last wild card slot, now held by the San Diego Padres. Two other clubs, the Giants and Cardinals, are between the Padres and Reds. As of the All-Star break, the Reds stand a 10-20% chance of making the postseason, depending on who is figuring.

It sure feels like their sputtering offense has been a primary culprit. Nick Krall has said he’s building a team approach to emphasize contact, spraying the ball all over the field. New manager Terry Francona and his staff of hitting coaches have stressed their teaching of hitting the ball to the opposite field. Here’s how Krall described it:

“As an offensive profile, you want guys that are going to make contact, especially in our ballpark. It makes a lot sense for us because if you can hit line drives and use the whole field, you’re going to be able to score runs.”

How’s that working out?

The Reds have scored more runs that average. If that’s due to the tight dimensions of their home park, well they’ll still play almost half of their remaining games in that setting.

But the underlying stats show the Reds are, in fact, a soft hitting team. They’ve been aided by a healthy dose of luck on singles, as indicated by their team BABIP and xBA. When relatively weak hitters populate your lineup, you get scoring dry spells. Unless the Reds add hard-hitting players, the numbers don’t bode well for the second half of 2025. Luck isn’t a plan. Also, the coaching staff continuing to convince Reds hitters to wait longer on pitches and aim for the opposite field will produce a strengthening headwind.

A Final Point

Krall’s stated roster strategy gets it exactly backwards.

Acquiring fast players who spray the ball around to “use the whole field” makes zero sense when your outfield dimension is the smallest in baseball.

If you play in a little park like GABP, you score runs by hitting the ball over the fence, not aiming for the tiny spaces. The Reds should be drafting, developing and otherwise acquiring players who can do that, not the opposite. The Reds being out-homered at home shows they aren’t taking advantage of their park. It’s a perverse but predictable product of their stated strategy.

I have a strong suspicion that Nick Krall knows better. He has to be aware that getting on base and hitting for power is how to score and win. That reality has been true for a century and more so every year. That includes under the brightest lights of the postseason, where the Reds hope to play again someday.

That’s exactly why every team wants power hitting. Supply meets demand and you get a market price. Power hitting is expensive. Reds ownership doesn’t do expensive. The don’t pay market price for impact players. Nick Krall talks about acquiring opposite field slap hitters because that’s what he can afford.

Until ownership changes its approach to payroll, get used to offensive droughts.