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From early on in the 2023 season, it was clear that the young Reds roster played with something to prove. Even during a rocky start, they remained competitive and rarely folded in the face of adversity, routinely showing a knack for erasing deficits. This quickly became one of the team’s calling cards.
They have 26 comeback wins, including another one this afternoon over the Rockies, earning the nickname of “Rally Reds.” No other team in baseball has as many come-from-behind victories this season. The next-closest National League team is the Diamondbacks with 21. The Reds have come from behind in 65% of their 40 victories this season. According to OptaSTATS, that’s the highest percentage by any MLB team over the last 60 seasons. The next team on the list? Another club with a strong offense and lackluster starting pitching: the 2005 Reds, who came from behind in 46 of their 73 victories.
How the Reds have earned their “Rally” moniker
The 2005 squad used the long ball to mount many of their comebacks, ranking third in baseball in home runs behind sluggers such as Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Felipe López, Wily Mo Peña, and Austin Kearns. They also drew a lot of walks (fourth best BB%) and ran the bases well (2nd in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric).
The 2023 Reds have hit some homers, to be sure — only two teams have more home runs since June 10, when the Reds’ 11-game winning streak began. But for most of the year, Cincinnati has done it by chipping away at teams.
They grind out at-bats. For the season, the Reds are fifth among all teams in walk rate (9.3%), eighth in pitches per plate appearance (3.95), and third in chase rate (25.0%). Eight of the 13 position players on the active roster have an above-average walk rate this season, and that doesn’t include on-base machine Joey Votto, who just returned to action on Monday. Among players who qualify, three Reds are in the 68th percentile or better in walk rate (Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer, Stuart Fairchild) and six are in the same territory in chase rate (Steer, Fairchild, Jonathan India, Nick Senzel, TJ Friedl, Matt McLain). Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz are poised to join those groups when they get enough plate appearances to qualify.
Late in games, the Reds have turned their patience up a notch. From the seventh inning on, they have a 10.6% walk rate. From the eighth inning on, it jumps to 12.5%. In the ninth inning and extra innings, the Reds have a 15.6% walk rate — by far the highest mark in the majors (the Yankees are next at 12.5%).
They run the bases aggressively. The lone players with below-average sprint speed on the active roster are the three catchers (Tyler Stephenson, Luke Maile, Curt Casali). De La Cruz is the fastest man in baseball. And the Reds use their speed advantageously.
Just a year after ranking 28th in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR), the Reds are now second to only the Dodgers. They were dead last in Baseball Prospectus’ baserunning metric (BRR) in 2022; now, they’re third. Only the Diamondbacks have a higher rate of extra bases taken (51%) than the Reds (48%). Cincinnati’s biggest deficiency on the bases early in the season was their stolen-base efficiency, but they’ve cleaned that up as well. Only the Rays have more steals (96) than the Reds (78), who’ve raised their success rate to 80% — above league average (79%) and the 75% threshold needed to provide positive overall value. In 2022, the team leader in steals was Senzel with eight. This year, the Reds already have four players who have matched or surpassed that mark: India (12), Fraley (12), Friedl (8), and Fairchild (8). Steer (7) and De La Cruz (6) will join that group soon.
The bullpen has held strong. Although Lucas Sims and the unflappable Alexis Díaz are probably the only two relievers you can truly trust, the Reds bullpen has held up well. While the starting rotation has the third-worst ERA in baseball, the bullpen has the 10th-best. Yes, ERA is flawed and not always predictive of what will happen moving forward (the peripherals like FIP and SIERA aren’t as kind to the Cincinnati ‘pen). But it shows what happened in the past — and despite needing 21 different relievers to get through 74 games, the Reds bullpen has kept the team in games on most days. Buck Farmer (2.48 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.21 xFIP) and Alex Young (2.70 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 3.83 xFIP), in particular, have helped carry the Reds through the middle innings.
They use their bench effectively. For much of the year, David Bell has had to navigate around having two catchers on the bench. Still, the fifth-year manager has made the most of his roster by taking advantage of platoon splits. When a left-handed pitcher starts for the opponent, he typically sits Fraley, Friedl, and Benson while starting Senzel (218 wRC+ vs. LHP), Fairchild (109), and Kevin Newman (148). But when a righty enters the game, Bell doesn’t hesitate to deploy his left-handed hitters in the later innings. Bell does the opposite when a right-handed pitcher starts, starting Fraley (135 wRC+ vs. RHP), Friedl (130), and Benson (124). As a result, Reds substitutes have a 113 OPS+ this season, trailing only the Blue Jays (119) and Orioles (116).
Just how resilient are the Reds?
We know about the Reds’ 26 comeback wins, but there are many other metrics that illuminate the team’s never-say-die attitude. Note that these metrics aren’t predictive, but they do tell a fun story about where the Reds have been.
Unsurprisingly, the Reds have performed well under pressure in the late innings. In high-leverage situations from the seventh inning onward, no team in baseball has scored more runs (43). FanGraphs calculates a “Clutch” score, which measures how well a player or team does in high-leverage spots than in a context-neutral environment. It compares a team (or player) to themselves, rather than other teams, to see how much better or worse they perform in crucial situations compared to their baseline. Only three teams have a higher Clutch rating than the Reds (Diamondbacks, Orioles, White Sox). On the pitching side, the Reds ranks sixth, with Ben Lively and Díaz proving particularly adept at pitching their way through high-leverage spots.
When 65% of a team’s wins are comebacks, they probably overcame some steep odds a few times. We can see just how small the chances of victory were by looking at win expectancy, which is tracked throughout every game. The Reds have now won 16 (!) games in which their win expectancy was below 25% at one point.
They have four victories after seeing their win expectancy dip below 10%. The most recent occurrence was against the Dodgers on June 6. After four innings, the Reds were down 8-3 and their win expectancy hit a low of 7.1%. But the team crawled back, scoring one run apiece in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings before putting three runs on the board in the ninth, capped off by McLain’s walk-off single.
The Reds’ most improbable victory of the season came against the Rangers in April. Cincinnati won all three games against Texas in come-from-behind fashion, but they overcame the longest odds on April 25. The Reds were down 6-0 entering the seventh inning, and their win probability was a mere 1.5% at one point. From 1903 to 2022, teams went 79-4,953 when entering the bottom of the seventh inning down by six runs. But the Reds rallied for a run in the seventh inning and six runs in the eighth inning to take the lead and earn the victory.
Here’s a full list of the comeback victories the Reds have had when their win probability was at 25% or lower at some point in the game:
Can the Reds continue to dig themselves out of holes left by the starting rotation? It remains to be seen. Some regression wouldn’t be surprising, as the Reds are currently mounting comebacks at a historic pace. The starting staff will have to pull its weight eventually for the team to make a playoff push, whether that’s via getting healthy or acquiring an outside arm.
Regardless of how the rest of the season pans out, though, the Reds offense has made it clear that you shouldn’t touch your remote or leave your seat until the final out is recorded.
Featured photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire
