2025 Reds Mid-Season Analysis – Infielders

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We looked at the 2025 Reds offense at a team level. Now we’ll analyze each position player, discuss his 2025 season and make an educated guess at what to expect the rest of the season. The number in parenthesis after the player’s name is his current age. The indicated 2025 WAR is the average of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, with fractions resolved in the player’s favor.

We’ll begin here with most of the infielders, starting with the catchers.

Tyler Stephenson (28) — 0.6 WAR

Stephenson is in his fifth season in a Reds uniform after being the club’s first-round draft pick in 2015 out of high school. He began 2025 on the IL with a left oblique strain and missed the first few weeks. Since his return on May 2, Stephenson has caught a majority of the games and has also been the designated hitter 16 times. His wRC+ is 90 after a career rate of 107.

Stephenson’s career has been hard to characterize because of the widely variant BABIP he’s experienced from season to season. Up until 2025, he’s been a league average hitter, with league average power and a little bit better than average BA.

But Stephenson’s first half of 2025 was significantly different. His hard-hit rate is up, he has the highest average exit velocity and barrel rate of his career, and his walk rate is up. But Stephenson has also whiffed and struck out more, from a career average K% of 23% up to 36%. As a result, his BA and xBA (bottom 3%) have dropped. Reinforcing that is his batted-ball profile, trading off a bunch of grounders for fly balls. His line drive rate has remained about the same. Stephenson has been hitting the ball more to the opposite field.

On defense, he has made notable improvement. His catching is now rated as slightly above average by defensive metrics. Stephenson has improved at blocking balls and shutting down the running game.

What to expect in the second half? It’s hard to be too optimistic unless he changes his approach. Stephenson’s rolling xwOBA has fallen and shown no hint of improvement.

If you’re looking for positives, point to his hard-hit rate (top 93rd percent) and average exit velocity. But with that is the strikeout rate (bottom 1%), whiff rate, higher called strike rate, and lower contact rate on balls in the strike zone. All of that points to more of the same reduced offensive success. Stephenson’s decline in wRC+ is legit although still kind of a small sample.

Jose Trevino (30) — 1.0 WAR

Trevino is in his seventh full major league season after being acquired by the Reds this past offseason in a trade with the Yankees for reliever Fernando Cruz. Trevino has been a back-up catcher in previous stops and that’s the role he’s played with the Reds once Tyler Stephenson was called up at the start of May. Trevino’s wRC+ is 105.

He got off to a blazing start due primarily to good BABIP fortune (.345 in March/April after a career hitting .269). Since then, he’s drifting down into his career numbers in average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG. He’s a low-K, low-BB batter, which means he swings a lot early in the count. His xwOBA (.279) is way below his wOBA (.327), which points downward.

Trevino’s defense has been close to average although rated slightly below. He’s below average in blocks and toward the bottom in caught-steals and pop time. He’s average in framing. Trevino is one of the slowest players in baseball. His defensive metrics are split but close enough to neutral to not parse the difference.

What to expect in the second half? Prior to coming to Cincinnati, Trevino’s career wRC+ was 75. In July so far, he’s had three singles in 15 plate appearances. The underlying stats are pointing directly back to that career number.

Let’s move across the infield, starting at first base.

Spencer Steer (27) — 0.4 WAR

This is Spencer Steer’s third full major league season. His 2023 at the plate was terrific, with an overall batting run value in the top 91st percentile. His xwOBA was top 60%. He hit 23 homers in 665 plate appearances. But the Reds were forced to play him in left field, which was new to him. Steer’s negative defensive numbers (bottom 1%) almost fully cancelled out his impressive offense.

Steer’s 2023 results were inflated a bit by luck on balls in play, so his somewhat lower numbers through the first five months of 2024 weren’t a surprise. He’d kept up his underlying measures until the season’s final month (wRC+ 56).

This spring, a shoulder injury that had bothered him flared up. The Reds gave him a cortisone shot and pledged “to do the right thing” and “be fair to him.” They had decided the fair, right things was to put him on the IL heading into Opening Day. That is, until Austin Hays and Tyler Stephenson both were hurt. The unfair, wrong thing happened. The Reds had Steer play through it.

Steer began the 2025 season as the Reds DH, unable to throw. He didn’t play the field until his 18th game on April 21, when the Reds decided his health had improved enough. Since then, he’s hit about the same as last year, although his overall results reflect the catastrophic start in March and April. Since his move to first base, Steer’s power has improved (.170) and his strikeout rate is down. In the field, Steer has been a revelation at first base. A career infielder, Steer’s 1B defense has been rated the single best by a club’s position player in the first half.

What to expect the second half? Barring any backsliding on his shoulder, Steer should continue to post numbers in the neighborhood of the first five months of 2024, maybe just below. He isn’t likely to reach his 2023 heights, in part because of the positive luck he experienced that year and the lingering shoulder issue. But expect a wRC+ around 105-110 with above-average power. He doesn’t hit as well as the average first baseman, but makes up partly for that with his glove work.

Matt McLain (25) — 0.7 WAR

McLain was the Reds first-round pick out of UCLA in 2021. His 2023 debut marked a turning point for the Reds, solidifying the defense at shortstop and starting the wave of young impact players. He finished fifth in the voting for NL Rookie of the Year despite missing the last month with an oblique strain.

McLain injured his shoulder diving for a ball at 2024 spring training. It required surgery that caused him to miss the 2024 season. You can describe his 2025 offense with one word: rusty. It often takes a player a whole season to recover his swing from shoulder surgery. Add to that missing a year.

McLain’s power is way down (.216 ISO to .127), hit tool down (.290 BA to .210), expected batting average down (.253 down to .220), composite batting down (.332 xwOBA to .302). His bat tracking stats show rust, with a low 2023 bat speed down even further. Two other signs point to rust: His xwOBA against fastballs at 95 or greater MPH is way down (from .370 to .301). His pull-rate is also down.

On the bright side, even with severe struggles at the plate, McLain has been an All-Star in the field (85th percentile) and on the bases (82nd percentile). Stolen bases don’t matter that much, but he is 13-0 on attempts this year. McLain’s plate discipline has been the same, as has his hard-hit rate.

What to expect the second half? Some of McLain’s stats have improved. He cut his strikeout rate by about a third since March/April. He had a strong month in June. That said he slumped again in July. His rolling average xwOBA tells the ho-hum story:

There isn’t a lot in his underlying numbers that points to an obvious return trajectory in 2025. That’s not to say he won’t. He’s had a bit of bad luck with balls in play given contact quality. But with what he’s been through physically, there’s no clear timetable for when he shakes off that rust.

Santiago Espinal (30) —  -0.3 WAR

The veteran utility infielder has played mostly 3B and some 2B for the 2025 Reds. Yes, that’s a negative WAR. His wRC+ is 63. There’s no sugar coating that Espinal has been one of the worst regular hitters in baseball this season. Of 203 batters with at least 250 plate appearances, he ranks 196th in wRC+, bottom 4% in xwOBA, bottom 1% in xSLG, bottom 4% in hard-hit rate, bottom 7% in bat speed and bottom quarter in walks. Espinal still hasn’t homered.

He’s on pace for only 22 RBI. In the last 50 years, that would be the second lowest RBI total for batters who get at least 500 plate appearances in a season. He’s hit into 10 double plays. Espinal does avoid striking out. But his overall batting run value is in the bottom 4%. His right-handed split is significantly worse than all those numbers.

What to expect the second half? More of the same. That 65 wRC+ is in a decline-phase line with his numbers from 2024 (74 wRC+) and 2023 with Toronto (79 wRC+). His role should be true utility infielder at most, playing only when one of the regulars needs a day off. He should never take at bats against right-handed pitchers.

Noelvi Marte (23) — 0.9 WAR

Marte was the headliner of the 2022 deadline trade where the Reds sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. He became one of the top two Reds prospects and rated in the top-50 across the majors. Marte was a SS at the time, but his body size and Reds roster being full of other shortstops pointed to him landing at third base. He had a terrific debut 2023 season at the plate, posting a 120 wRC+ and .340 xwOBA in 123 plate appearances. Marte was on track to be the Reds starting 3B in 2024.

Then the Reds infielder was hit with an 80-game suspension for PED use in March 2024. What followed can only be described as a tough season. His first game back was June 27 and he played regularly after that. That shiny 120 wRC+ from 2023 plummeted to 48 in 66 games. The .340 xwOBA sunk to (gulp) .268. That’s bottom 2%.

The 2025 season began with Marte assigned to Triple-A Louisville. The demotion wasn’t a surprise given what had transpired in 2024. Then Matt McLain hit the IL for a few days in early April with a tight hamstring, followed by CES sidelined with a back problem. Marte was back up with the Reds. But then an injury struck him, missing two months – May 7 to July 4 – with a left oblique strain. Those factors have limited Marte to 104 plate appearances, a small sample size, so buyer beware a bit.

Marte has made the most of his scarce opportunities in 2025. He’s hit for power (.263 ISO), cut his strikeouts in half and nearly doubled his walks. Marte’s wRC+ is 138. Adjusting for contact quality knocks him down a bit, but Marte is still well above average and easily in line with his 2023 numbers. His average bat speed is excellent at 73.8 mph and his sprint speed is in the 93rd percentile. Those are strong, encouraging underlying numbers.

What to expect the second half? If Marte can stay on the field, I’d expect him to continue to hit close to how he has in the first half, with the sample size caveat in mind. The underlying numbers are there. Keep an eye on his swing-and-miss rate, it’s a little high. His defense has been decent, if slightly negative. An occasional late-inning defensive replacement would be okay, but only in situations where the Reds have a lead. Otherwise, Marte should be the Reds everyday, every-inning 3B. His WAR earned per game is only a skinny whisker below Elly’s.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (25) — -0.6 WAR

Yikes. Another negative WAR and a high one considering Encarnacion-Strand has played in only 36 games. CES debuted for the Reds in 2023, playing in 63 games from mid-July to the end of the season, mostly at first base. His wRC+ of 112 was impressive for a rookie and backed up by his underlying contact quality.

His 2024 season ended on May 7 with an ulnar styloid fracture (that’s the bone that juts out of your wrist on the pinky side). He had been suffering through a horrible season. That handsome 112 wRC+ had sunk to 35. His calling-card power was down to a .103 ISO from double that his rookie year.

Encarnacion-Strand has had two stints with the 2025 Reds. He was on the Opening Day roster and played until back issues sent him to the IL on April 17. He returned on June 6 until his demotion to Triple-A on July 12. The Reds were trying to work him in at third base but with Marte playing well and Steer flashing great defense at first, CES was having a hard time getting on the field.

Encarnacion-Strand’s slump at the plate extended from 2024 to 2025. His first-stint wRC+ was just 22, with only one walk in 60 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 89 in June/July was better with his ISO rising. CES’s defensive liabilities, especially compared to Marte and Steer, had become conspicuous. With vanishing playing time, the Reds decided to demote him so he could get back to playing.

Encarnacion-Strand’s fundamental problem is observable from the International Space Station. He swings at everything. In fact, he’s probably swung at the shadow of the International Space Station. An awful 36% chase rate in 2023 has worsened each year. CES swung at nearly 47% of pitches out of the strike zone. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would be the worst rate in the majors.

What to expect the second half? I was surprised the Reds never tried Encarnacion-Strand at the DH spot this year. Not even once. In part, that’s because Spencer Steer had to DH coming out of Goodyear. Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and Tyler Stephenson have take the vast majority of DH at bats otherwise. Given CES’s defensive shortcomings and the emergence of Steer at first and Marte at third, barring an injury, it’s hard to see him getting a call up. If you’re looking for something positive, he has had one of the Reds’ best bat speeds (73.6 mph).

Elly and the OF still to come.