2025 Reds Mid-Season Analysis | Outfielders

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We looked at the 2025 Reds offense at a team level, then we analyzed most of the infielders. Now it’s the outfield’s turn. We’ll analyze each important OF, discuss his 2025 season and make an educated guess at what to expect the rest of the season. The number in parenthesis after the player’s name is his current age. The indicated 2025 WAR is the average of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, with fractions resolved in the player’s favor.

Will Benson (27) — 0.0 WAR

The Reds acquired Will Benson in the offseason before the 2023 season. He played in more than 100 games at the big league level in both 2023 and 2024. Benson put up a 128 wRC+ in a strong debut, with an excellent power metric of .223. He was due for a bit of decline in 2024 due to an unsustainable BABIP in 2023 of .391. But few expected Benson to collapse at the plate in 2024 as comprehensively as he did.

In 2024, Benson’s K% shot up to 40% (bottom 1%), his xwOBA dropped from an above-average .321 to a terrible .268 (bottom 3%). That BABIP did indeed plummet from .391 to .282. Given how poor his 2024 season was, it was no surprise he found himself in Triple-A on the 2025 Opening Day.

Benson’s banishment to the minors didn’t last long. He was recalled for a few days in April and then for good on May the 9. Benson has split time in the outfield between left and right and appeared in 53 games. You would never know it from his in-game results (wRC+ of 87) but Will Benson has been hammering the ball. His hard-hit rate at Statcast (58.2%) trails only Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber. Yes, he’s hit the ball hard more often than Aaron Judge or Juan Soto. Benson’s average exit velocity of 93.6 mph would be 8th best, tied with Nationals phenom James Woods and behind only Oneil Cruz, Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. That’s heady company. He’s cut his strikeout rate 29%.

What to expect in the second half? A sample size caveat is in order. 53 games and 174 plate appearances isn’t tiny but it isn’t large, either. Benson’s defense has been negative all three seasons, which explains his WAR being lower than you would expect (-0.6 last year). But any fair reading of Benson’s underlying numbers points to a huge second half. He’s been the victim of terrible luck as shown by his .223 BA and .282 xBA. That BABIP is only .265, despite all the hard hit balls. When they start to fall in as they should, Benson’s results will soar.

All those outstanding underlying “expected” numbers are when he’s facing right-handed pitchers. He’s done nothing to dispel his inability to hit lefties. His xBA is just .109 and xwOBA just .244 against southpaws. Both of those are at the bottom. His average exit velocity of 94.4 mph against RHP is just 85.2 against LHP. Will Benson remains a platoon player.

Jake Fraley (30) — 0.5 WAR

Fraley is in this seventh major league season, having come to the Reds from Seattle in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez trade. Next season will be his last before being eligible for free agency. Fraley’s career has been defined by consistency other than 2024 when he experienced a significant drop in power. Last season he finished in the bottom 1% of average exit velocity and bottom 3% in hard-hit percentage. His ISO dropped about 50 points from his career number.

Fraley has a steady record of injuries, although none have been serious or chronic. He’s averaged two trips to the IL per season. In 2025, he missed two weeks in May with left calf tenderness and two weeks more recently with a right shoulder sprain. He did return to the Reds roster just prior to the All-Star break.

His 2025 composite offensive numbers are in line with his career, which is to say league average. His 100 wRC+ in 2025 matches his 102 for career. Same with his xwOBA. He’s also been a consistent, average power hitter, with a career ISO around .156 (.152 in 2025). Fraley will also take a walk, with a career average BB% of 10.5, a couple percent above MLB norms.

Fraley has extreme handedness splits. Over his career his xBA (.248/.206), xwOBA (.320/.266), exit velocity (85.4/80.4) and hard-hit rate (30.4/20.3) all show a tremendous weakness against left-handed pitchers. Terry Francona has only allowed Fraley to have four plate appearances against lefties out of 125 total.

What to expect in the second half? Assuming Fraley can stay off the IL, he’ll continue to be an average player against right-handed pitchers. He’s maintained above average speed. His right-field defense is close to neutral. It’s telling that Fraley has never put up more than 1.1 WAR in a single season. I wouldn’t look for more than that in 2025. Teams need to get more value out of their RF. If the Reds do make a deadline move to acquire an OF, it would come at the expense of Jake Fraley’s playing time.

TJ Friedl (29) — 2.3 WAR

If you’re searching for a single word to describe TJ Friedl’s major league career it would be “rollercoaster.” 2025 is his fourth full-time-ish season and you’d characterize his numbers as down, way up, down, up*. Friedl’s breakthrough 2023 was the product of his results massively outperforming his underlying numbers. Compare his 2023 .279 BA to a .240 xBA and .353 wOBA to his .289 xwOBA. Friedl’s posted a 3.9 WAR season in 2023. But he also went through below average seasons combining 2022 and 2024.

Friedl has brought the rollercoaster into the 2025 season. From mid-April to the end of May he put up a wRC+ of 149, highlighted by an on-base percentage of .420. Those numbers were fueled by a crazy lucky BABIP of .395 (his career BABIP is .282). But Friedl has slumped recently. In his last 94 plate appearances, back to June 20, his wRC+ has been 68 with an unlucky BABIP of .250.

Friedl has become an extreme pull hitter, with the ninth-highest pull% among qualified players. (Last night’s home run derby champ and AL MVP contender, Cal Raleigh, is #1 in pulling the ball.) All of Friedl’s power comes on the pull side. Here’s his 2025 spray chart for extra-base hits.

Outside of 2023, Friedl’s defensive metrics have been negative. His sprint speed (34th percentile) hasn’t recovered from its sharp drop in 2024.

Friedl has been outstanding getting on base. He’s cut down his swing% from about 60% to 54.5%. He’s taken more walks as a result. Both his strikeout and walk rates are excellent. Friedl’s career platoon split has been mild (xBA .239/.225; xwOBA .300/.294; EV 87.0/85.5).

What to expect in the second half? With a player whose big performance swings seem based on luck, it’s hard to know. His 2.3 WAR so far in 2025 is a positive sign. But it’s difficult to get past this stat: Friedl’s career xwOBA is .298. And yes, that excludes bunts. League average has been .316. That said, Friedl has enjoyed long stretches where he has outperformed “expected” numbers. He’s also had prolonged below-average periods. It wouldn’t be crazy for the Reds to look to add a CF who improves the team’s defense. Friedl could move to a corner spot.

Austin Hays (30) — 0.9 WAR

Hays spent most of his career with the Orioles before being traded at last year’s deadline to Philadelphia. He went 0-4 for the Phillies in the NLDS, starting once and pinch hitting once. Hays declared free agency and signed with the Reds for $5 million with a $12 million mutual option in 2026. Across his career, he’s been a slightly above (wRC+ 106) or slightly below (xwOBA .306) average hitter depending on how you measure.

His 122 wRC+ has been aided by some luck (.344 BABIP vs .311 career) (.287 BA vs .255 xBA) but even factoring that out he’s hit better than average. His power has ticked up quite a bit (.230 ISO compared to .175 career) and so have his strikeouts. He’s always been a low-walk-rate guy and that’s continued.

You have to at least mention his injury track record. On the one hand, he went all of 2022 and 2023 without hitting the IL, playing more than 140 games each of those seasons. In 2024, however, he missed playing time on three occasions: left calf strain (three weeks), left hamstring strain (two weeks), kidney infection (two weeks). Unfortunately for the Reds, 2025 has been more of the same. Hays has already hit the IL three times: left calf strain (2.5 weeks), left hamstring strain (one week) and left foot bruise (1 month).

What to expect in the second half? IF (note the caps) Hays stays on the field, you can expect him to hit a little bit better than average, say a 110 wRC+. Keep in mind his 2025 sample size isn’t the biggest, at 47 games and 192 PA. If his BABIP returns to his career norm, that batting average will drop some and his low walk rate will produce a below-average OBP. There’s a good chance he’ll be a solid bat, but Hays is nothing like a mid-lineup thumper who can provide legit protection for Elly.

Gavin Lux (27) — 0.2 WAR

Lux was a first-round pick by the Dodgers who shot through their system and seemed destined to be their starting shortstop. Heading into the 2020 season, he was a consensus top-five prospect in baseball. Lux had an upside that included All-Star shortstop. Unfortunately, he never lived up to those expectations. He also tore his ACL and missed all of 2023. By this past offseason, he was no longer in the Dodgers plans and they felt comfortable trading him to the Reds.

The Reds pinned their hopes on Lux’s strong second half of 2024 and a feel-good narrative about Lux traveling home to Wisconsin at the All-Star break and talking with his uncle about his batting approach. Over his final 181 PA in 2024, Lux saw his exit velocity (91.2 mph), bat speed (72.0 mph), xBA (.322) and xwOBA (.363) skyrocket. Nick Krall pointed at those numbers when selling the trade. But so far in 2025, it looks like that was a small-sample aberration, as Lux has seen those numbers — EV 89.0, bat speed 69.5, xBA .286, xwOBA .294 — fall back to his norm. Lux has a good chase rate (top 94th percentile) and walk-rate (86%) while carrying a low-is strikeout rate. But his power numbers (bottom 3%) and hard-hit rate (bottom 27%) are holding down his overall contribution.

Lux is yet another left-handed Reds outfielder with a profound handedness split: .262/.211 xBA, .325/.268 xwOBA, 88.9/.86.8 EV and 40.8/33.8 hard-hit. I guess the good news there is when he bats against right handed pitchers he’s been above average.

Lux had played mostly 2B for the Dodgers, who had seemed to give up on his arm making throws from the left side of the infield. Problem was, the Reds didn’t need a second baseman. Nick Krall mentioned a bunch of possibilities for Lux in the spring, but the 27-year-old has ended up as the Reds left fielder. Defensive metrics are in agreement Lux has been one of the worst outfielders in MLB. Whatever small positive contribution he’s made on offense has been nearly canceled out by the Reds playing him out of position.

What to expect in the second half? An average offensive bat thanks to a strong walk-rate when facing right-handed pitchers. An out-of-position defender who gives any positive value back. He’s got a similar role as Jake Fraley and Will Benson. Hope he took another trip to Wisconsin this week. Gavin Lux is a cautionary tale. He seemed like a sure thing prospect that hasn’t come close to the hype. He’s also a warning against over-reading half-season results that stand in contrast to career numbers.